저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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페덱스와 어도비 실적 발표 이후 이커머스 경쟁 심화가 우려되지만, 두 기업의 문제 성격은 다르다는 결론. 어도비: 전반적으로 견고한 분기였으나 고객경험관리(CXM) 사업, 특히 2018년 인수한 마케토(Marketo) 관련 부문과 수주(bookings) 및 컨설팅 서비스에서 약세가 나타나 가이던스를 소폭 하향 조정. 주가는 선행 실적 대비 약 29배로 대형 클라우드 종목 중 비교적 저렴하다고 평가. 어도비 전망: 11월 4일 애널리스트 미팅 전까지 수주 문제를 해결하지 못하면 현재 PER 유지가 어려울 수 있음. 그러나 건강한 기업이 일부 항목에서 흔들린 것이므로 미팅 앞 약세 시 매수 관점 제시. 페덱스: 실적 쇼크와 가이던스 하향으로 주가가 하루 약 22달러(12.9%) 급락. 미·중 무역전쟁 불확실성, 글로벌 경기 둔화, 아마존 물량 축소(매출 비중 약 1.3%), 인건비 상승, 유럽 사업 통합 실패 등이 복합 원인으로 제시됨. 경영진 예측 부실과 실행력 문제에 대한 애널리스트 불만도 컸음. 페덱스 평가: UPS, DHL, 우정국, 아마존 등 강력한 경쟁자와 동시에 싸우는 구조라 비용 부담이 큼. 경쟁사들이 수익성 높은 소포만 골라 가져가면서 페덱스는 수익성 낮은 물량을 떠안는 상황으로 분석. 종합: 이커머스 시장의 경쟁 격화가 두 기업 모두에 부담이 되었고, 특히 경기 둔화가 기업 수요와 소비자 양쪽에 타격을 준다는 시각.
다듬은 글
we need to start worrying about the e-commerce space last night we had not one but two calls that made you feel like maybe it's getting too tough to be in this business that is getting too much competition at least in terms of predicting with business going I mean I'm talking about FedEx and Adobe Wow now if you listen to both conference calls after their quarters you know it's ridiculously unfair for me to lump Dobby in with FedEx Adobe delivered a generally solid quarter we had chatted on Ryan on the CEO they just made some missteps in their customer experience management business especially the parts of the business they got when they acquired Marketo last year plus the bookies were a little light consulting services discipline sure the headline numbers were more strong but there were some areas of weakness that prevented the company from raising its forecast instead they trimmed it ever so slightly while Adobe's arguably the cheapest of the big cap clouds plays stop sells for nearly 29 times next year's are any assessments and it's not like it's an incredible bargain if management can't address these booking problems by their analyst meeting on November 4th I think the price earnings multiple might be hard to maintain hence why the stock did 5 bucks and it was down a lot more at one point so Adobe's basically a healthy company that stumbled on a couple of line items I think you buy the stock into weakness ahead of that conference FedEx in the end this was a total meltdown from start to finish stock fell 22 bucks or 12.9% geez why the obliteration in parts because this great company can't predict what will happen to worldwide commerce see as we've got no clarity whatsoever on the trade war with China which is a big big place for FedEx business that's CEO the super smart Fred Smith was openly by morning how tariffs are slowing down the whole global economy and we're next thank heavens Jay's listening j-pal not not Jay Leno I'm not usually confused look I support the trade work we need to crack down on China's unfair practices but there's a cost of that it's not wrong when he points out that for example Germany's weak because China's week and remember FedEx is in all these areas there's a truly international triumphant company that I'm proud of that said FedEx reported huge shortfall also slash Ian's guidance for good measure and the analysts believe that there was more to do with execution than Smith is willing to admit there was open rebellion on this cop school the type of criticism you only hear when the analysts feel that they've been completely hosed by management's poor forecasting and death and suboptimal execution and that's why the stock was pummeled my view I want to be more forgiving FedEx is an impossible position their chief competitors UPS DHL the post office met Amazon constantly innovating tough guys FedEx is trying to fight all four of them on every front and it's costing them a fortune plus the company dropped the last bit of its Amazon business which is surprisingly profitable for now but at a big cost down the road given what Amazon is asking for while this is only a small piece of the pie for FedEx only 1.3 percent of the company's total revenue in the near term Smith says it means his earnings will take a meaningful hit and that did come as a bit of a shock I thought that was not so great when you combine the Amazon surprised the amount of the money FedEx is shelling out for Catholic spenders the higher labor costs expiry in this country and the company's overall inability to fully integrated some European business and be able to predict anything you can understand why the analyst were furious but I got a different take away I mean everyone's got that consensus view I'm taking something different I think what's happened is the competition for e-commerce no matter where it is whether it be software whether whether it be Freight has gotten very intense ultra intense whether it's Adobe's digital marketing software versus say Salesforce or FedEx is shipping versus UPS for example is Heather Bellini who's an excellent analyst from Goldman Sachs wondered on the Adobe call maybe there's just some competition to the Marketo into the businesses causing problems in her shoes I probably wouldn't have been this diplomatic and just ask the Salesforce was gunning for him sure seems like that's the case and if you're running a business the last thing you want is serious competition now I think FedEx may have the same problems the rivals maybe cherry-picking the good parcels and leaving FedEx deliver lots that are less profitable at the same time in the global economy slowing down when it was ramping up to when FedEx was ramping up to meet worldwide ecommerce demand that's now no longer materializing because of the softness of the world's economies both business business and consumers are issues for FedEx the former because of a slowdown the industrial economy the latter because it's just too darn expensive to get it right but with FedEx in Adobe getting hammered today I want to be a little gentle bathroom misses on like all the other jackals the photos not in themselves in this case it's in their stars specifically the competition in an ever evolving ecommerce world that makes it incredibly difficult to forecast how well you're going to do it's this competition that felt both FedEx in Adobe at the same time while the one obviously fell a lot harder than the other net bunnies back in the brain do you think Mike online sexy we're talking to add my culture farm equipment everything you need to know with Martin Rees and OGG in the CEO of I coat stay tuned
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