It's obvious Trump wants a lower US dollar, says DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach

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결론: 미국 경제는 평균 수준이며 연준 금리인하 필요성은 약하고, 재정적자 확대와 국채 공급 증가로 달러는 장기적으로 약세가 될 가능성이 크다. 미국 경제·연준 평가: 대통령은 역대 최고 경제라고 하지만 글로벌 금융위기 이후 평균 수준이라고 평가. 연준은 금리를 9차례 인상 후 소폭 인하 중이며 인하의 긴박성은 보이지 않는다고 지적. 트럼프 행정부·금리 전망: 트럼프는 달러 약세를 원하고 이를 위해 금리를 크게 내려 일본·유럽 마이너스 금리와의 금리차를 없애려 한다고 주장. 대통령이 더 많은 QE, 금리인하, 마이너스 금리를 원한다고 봄. 민주당도 대규모 재정지출로 저금리를 선호할 것으로 봄. 국채 공급·달러 전망: 다음 경기침체 때 대규모 국채 발행이 시장에 쏟아질 것이며, 9월 레포 시장 충격(약 540억달러 규모 만기·세금 납부 겹침)을 예로 듦. 재정적자 확대로 다음 침체 시 달러가 하락할 것으로 예상. 지역별 증시 흐름: 1980년대 말 일본 닛케이 과대평가 후 장기 하락, 2000년대 초 유럽 상대적 강세 후 붕괴, 글로벌 금융위기 이후 신흥국 강세 후 회복 실패 사례를 제시. 다음 침체 때도 미국이 상대적으로 부진하고 세계 대비 저조할 가능성을 제기. 투자 전략: 6~8개월에서 장기로 보고 달러 자산과 미국 주식 비중을 점진적으로 줄이고 비달러·비미국 투자를 늘릴 것을 제안. 해당 발언은 장기 견해로 분류. 출연자 및 기타: 제이 파월 연준의장 임기 안전 여부 질문에 대한 답은 자막상 불명확.

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01. well the president says it's the greatest economy of all time but it's really kind of an average economy right now if you look at where we've been over the past host global financial crisis Great Recession period we're about on average where we've been so I don't know why should the Fed for most that time period the Fed the Fed has been in a do-nothing mode then they tighten rates about nine times and now they're cutting them a little bit I don't exactly see what the what the real urgency is for cutting interest rates left alone well you laid out more QE more cuts uh this could be music to the person's ears that you just mentioned the president I'm that's what he wants he wants more QE he wants rates to be cut he would be fine with negative interest rates what do you make of the whole you know dynamic that we've seen over the last several months well it's a it's obvious that President Trump wants the dollar to be lower and the way to get there is to cut interest rates very dramatically so that you eliminate the interest rate differential that exists between United States and the negative yielding areas of Japan and Europe he wants that to happen he sees the president seems to want as much debt as possible and as much borrowing as possible and he's want zero interest base native interface to facilitate an open-ended debt binge and obviously the Democratic Party is running on immense spending programs so I suppose that they though they don't talk about the Fed the way the president does I suppose they would want lower lower interest rates too so we're in this place of extreme it's Bond supply coming at us in the next recession and I think that's a fundamental starting point to think about portfolio allocations looking forward multiple years is that when the next recession comes it's going to be a real issue as to how we deal with the amount of bonds are going to be flooding the market we saw this week again with the repo emergency if the Fed had to enact yesterday that was brought on because we had a match in terms of maturities of bonds and cash payments for income tax and the like and a small amount of maturing bonds and issuance is that was about fifty four billion dollars it was fifty four billion dollars that caused this kind of a hiccup in the short-term interest rate funding market just imagine what would happen if we had three trillion dollars of long-term bonds floated in the in the wake of a recession that's coming and I think that's really important so I think as the deficit explodes we should expect the dollar to be falling we should expect the dollar to fall in the next recession I think that is fundamental in the way we think about how we allocate assets with my favorite chart of the year and I use it in my webcast yesterday which will be up on replay at double I'm calm pretty sure Lee is I went back and I looked at the four major regions of the global stock market going back to the 1980s and what happened is that the Japanese market was the world-beater in the late 80s it was perceived to be invincible the Japanese the Nikkei outperformed every market ever of the region the eurozone the United States and the emerging markets by a huge amount in the late 80s and then the the recession came in the early 90s and completely kneecapped the Nikkei and interestingly the Nikkei has never made it back to that level ever again in spite of the fact you know it's 30 years later then with the advent of the euro there was a lot of I think misplaced optimism about the euro zone's possibilities and Europe massively outperformed the rest of the world going into the OO period the dot-com bust right and then the European market completely collapsed after that and it's never made it back all this time 20 years it's never made it back to where it was in the advent of the euro and then the emerging markets were absolute world beaters from into the global recession the great financial crisis they crushed every other market in the world and interestingly in that recession the Great Recession emerging markets got decimated and they've never made it back right Geoffrey peak that they were at elderly have less than 30 seconds left this time goes way too fast let me to finish by poi let me fish my point so going into this this coming whenever it comes the United States has clearly been the world beater and has massively outperformed everybody else I think in the next recession we'll see the same pattern repeat where the u.s.

02. gets kneecap and ends up underperforming the rest of the world with the dollar weakening and I think for that reason as you look forward six or eight months six or eight years long-term planning here you should be allocating incrementally gradualist eclis to non dollar investments and non US stock market we'll leave it with that thought although I wanted to ask you whether you think J pals gonna finish his term he will he's job is safe according to Jeffrey gun lock Jeff we appreciate it as always Issei all right it's okay secret I'm with you that's Jeffrey gun lock from DoubleLine you