저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 이더리움이 3개월 연속 상승 중이며 크립토 윈터가 끝났다고 주장한다. 이더리움은 이란 전쟁 이후 최고 성과 자산이고, 5% 배분만으로 포트폴리오 성과를 크게 높였다고 제시한다. 비트코인 25만 달러, ETH/BTC 비율 상승 시 이더리움 1.2만~6.2만 달러까지 가능하다고 본다. 토큰화와 AI 에이전트가 다음 상승을 주도할 것이라 하며, CLARITY Act 마크업 결과를 중요 촉매로 언급한다.
다듬은 글
Timberly made his newest updates for us investors as the chairman's message and he said if one thing happens to Ethereum this month, we are good. All about this and much more here in this video. Welcome to the stocks and share them here free of charge on my YouTube channel so which can go nuts. Okay, so I was early investor in Nvidia, Palantir, Tesla, and Robinhood and my subscribers buy even houses and apartments.
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to talk about crypto spring and why I believe Ethereum is the future of money. Here are some disclaimers. So let's start with why I believe crypto spring is here. I know that many of you believe that we're still in the fog of war and it is indeed true, the US is in the midst of a conflict with Iran.
But what you have to focus on is that Ethereum has now risen for three months consecutively. And in fact, if Ethereum closes May above 2100, that would be the third consecutive month. As I'm highlighting here, there's never been a crypto winter where Ethereum has closed up three consecutive months in a row.
In other words, the fact that we're up three months in a row means crypto winter is over. Another way to think of this is to look at uh software stocks and Ethereum. Both have been highly correlated to each other, and as you can see, software stocks have risen along with Ethereum. In fact, at Fundstrat, software is now among our top sector picks as of May 1.
So, that gets us to uh some facts that Ethereum is the best-performing asset since the start of the Iran war. It's performing as a wartime store of value. And here's the thing. It's been a great diversification tool since 2016. Take a look at this first column that's highlighted. Let's look at different allocations you could have done in terms of owning Ethereum on December 30 December 31, 2016.
From 0% all the way to 33%, and these are the starting dollar value. So, if you had $100,000 for instance, and you put 5% into Ethereum, that was $5,000 invested. This highlighted column is what it would be worth today. So, your $5,000 investment would grow into 1.5 million. In other words, if you compare that to having zero allocated to Ethereum, okay?
And you look at your total portfolio today, it's 230,000 if you had no exposure to Ethereum versus 1.7 million if you had 5% allocated to Ethereum. In other words, you would have a seven times increase in your total portfolio with just a 5% exposure to Ethereum. Now, another way to think of this is how much of each asset would you need to own to protect yourself against a 50% decline in the S&P 500, okay?
So, this is the required hedge. You would need just 0.4% 10 years ago in Ethereum to protect yourself against a basically a wipeout in the stock market. Gold, which is considered a store value, you'd have to add 37% of your portfolio. So, you can see the point here. You'd want to own just a small piece of Ethereum as a source of diversification and as a hedge.
Now, Ethereum does track Bitcoin, so I think you should look at the price ratio. And the current price ratio is below not only the 8-year average, but the 2021 high at 0.087. And you've seen this chart from us before. If Bitcoin gets to 250,000, which we think is fair value in the next 12 months, and Ethereum gets to its the 8-year average of the price ratio, that's 12,000 Ethereum.
That's a lot of upside from here. If it gets to the 2021 high, that's 22,000 Ethereum. Keep in mind those are two numbers to watch. And if ETH becomes the payment rails of the future, which we believe's the case, that would imply $62,000 Ethereum. So, clearly a lot of upside from here. And Ethereum is exiting a long consolidation, something I've talked about before.
You can see this current consolidation's 5 years. But those other consolidations resulted in pretty explosive upside moves. 227 times after the 2016 consolidation, and after the 2020 consolidation, a 54x for Ethereum. So, I think this next upside's going to be led by tokenization and agentic AI. So, let's talk about the future of money.
Now, Elon Musk said something pretty profound recently. He says that this future system won't use dollars as currency, just mass and energy. What he's really referring to is that compute and energy are the two scarce assets. In fact, Larry Fink at BlackRock believes that compute will actually become a new asset class, and that we'll be buying futures of compute.
Reid Hoffman, the billionaire founder of LinkedIn, said that crypto will become critical in an AI world. Okay. Well, let's think about stablecoin transactions, which we had said last year was a chat GPT moment for crypto. And you can see stablecoin volumes now exceed Visa payments. This is according to data from Bitwise.
And Grayscale believes that the tokenized market is going to reach $300 billion as we tokenize real estate, fixed income, equities, derivatives, commercial real estate, basically everything. What does this mean for layer one blockchains? Well, this is Ethereum, which is in pink, and the total value locked of tokenized assets.
And you can see Ethereum moves pretty closely with that tokenization, meaning that, according to Grayscale, networks that host a large share of tokenized activities may capture a meaningful portion of economic value. In other words, if Ethereum is the leading tokenization platform, its price will go up a lot.
And Mark Andreessen, who is a very visionary about the future, says the grand unification of AI and crypto are H-AI agents cuz they're going to need money. And we've talked about this before, that there's numerous reasons why blockchains are a better way for AI agents to use money. So, I don't know if he said it right, because his graphic showed 2,300 something, and he said 2,100.
He said, actually, and let's look into it together, okay? He actually said that when Ethereum will close above where it started in the May months, then we are essentially good for a huge run. And I mean, it makes sense, right? Because of this technical alliance plus the Clarity Act alliance, then you can really have a fantastic run, okay?
Now, let's have a look. So, if we are looking into the first of May, which somewhere here, let me see. So, we have 2,200 in the end of April, right? So, I don't know if he meant over 2,100 or 2,300. That will be a quite of a question, because I you even after that in May, you can see we started May at around like four So, I think he meant 2,300.
Maybe that was the time when he recorded the video, but this is the number one thing. He believes that 3 months in a row, if we are closing higher than the open of the months, then we are good. And I mean like, even though it doesn't feel like it, Ethereum is kind of consolidating for a very long time, right?
And the lows here, which we had in April, got recovered till approximately, you know, towards the top of the channel that we we know here exists. And there's the 200 moving average as well at 2,638, as you can see here. So, if we run, we need to go above those two levels, and the same goes for Bitcoin.
If we are above 82,000 Bitcoin, we can really run. And that's all dependent on the Clarity Act. It's mar- it's supposed to be marked up tomorrow, so we will see about that. This is the one of the biggest uh catalyst that is out there for crypto right now, and therefore also for Bitmain. But, he also mentioned the software correlation, because crypto is very high dependent on software movements, right?
I don't know why. I don't know if it's just seen as a software or the market uh algorithms of the biggest investors out there, of the algo systems and quants are saying like, "Bitcoin is a software, and that's why we're trading it according to the software index." I have no idea why is that, but, you know, it is what it is, right?
And finally, he also brags a little bit about the Yeah, about the past, where you really should have owned Ethereum, and how big of a gains it made in the past, which is never uh let's say kind of promise to the future, but it just shows you how fast we can run. And I think the next run, which could start this summer, will be the biggest run that we have seen in crypto for very, very long time.
So, make sure to check out xandetech.com, and I'll see you tomorrow for a brand new video. And remember, if you never risk, you never drink champagne.
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