저자: CARavinderVats · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 마이클 배리의 경고를 인용해 미국 주택 담보 대출 기반 현금 인출(홈 에퀴티 론) 확산이 2008년형 금융 위기 위험을 키운다고 주장하며, 본인은 미국 기술주 약세 신호를 짚되 교육용이라고 밝힘. [주택담보·금융 리스크] 30년 모기지 금리가 약 7%로 1년 전 5.13%에서 크게 올랐고, 주택가격은 여전히 높은 수준이라 2008년과는 상황이 다르다고 설명함. 대신 주택 보유자들이 홈 에퀴티 론으로 현금을 빼 쓰는 흐름이 커지고 있음. 홈 에퀴티 론은 주택 가치와 상환 잔액의 차이를 담보로 한 대출이며, 금리 상승과 주택가격 하락이 겹치면 연체·압류가 늘어 은행 부실로 번질 수 있다고 경고함. 인플레이션이 지속되면 수요가 늘고 매물 공급이 급증할 수 있다고 봄. [중국·인도 연계 우려] 중국 부동산 리스크와 연결해 설명하고, 중국 은행의 매도 압력이 인도 은행에도 심리적 충격을 줄 수 있다고 언급함. 인도 은행들은 최근 니프티 상승을 주도했으나 고금리로 성장 자본 조달 비용이 높아 밸류에이션 하락 위험이 있다고 봄. 인도 정부도 고금리 때문에 금리 인하가 어렵다고 봄. [워런 버핏·현금 이동] 버핏이 주식 약 800억 달러 규모를 줄이고 단기 국채 등 안전자산으로 이동한 점을 시장 경계 신호로 해석함. 현금 보유 규모를 인도 루피로 환산하며 니프티 상위 기업 규모에 비유함. [미국 기술주 기술적 분석] 애플은 추세선을 이탈한 뒤 다시 상승 중이라고 보았고, 엔비디아는 추세선 아래에서 하락 이탈했다고 봄. 테슬라는 최근 3년 고점 약 400달러, 저점 약 110달러 범위에서 변동성이 크다고 설명. 마이크로소프트는 일봉에서 약세 패턴이 보이고 월봉에서는 위쪽 천장 신호가 보인다고 봄. 기관은 옵션·파생으로 가격을 상·하방 과도하게 움직이게 할 수 있다고 설명함. [포트폴리오·대응] 특정 종목에 대한 롱·숏 포지션 운용 방법과 현금 비중 조절 방식을 설명함. 시장 전반에 대한 극단적 상승·폭락 주장에는 거리를 둠. 시청자에게는 본인 리스크 성향에 맞춰 판단하고 영상은 교육 목적이라고 강조함. [출연자 전망] 전체적으로 금리 상승과 주택 담보 대출 확산을 근거로 한 신용 위험과 미국 기술주 약세 가능성을 경계하는 입장.
다듬은 글
Welcome back. Now let's talk about why this is being made in the second part. We will try to understand this. You will see that they believe that the interest rate on a 30-year loan has reached 7%, which was 6.96 a week ago and 5.13 a year ago. They are saying that housing prices are still at a higher level, which means the situation is not like the situation in 2008 when the Prime Minister was elected, that is, house prices are high.
There, house prices had fallen or loans were given more than the value of the house. Now home buyers are moving towards home equity, that is, they are taking cash from home equity. So now it will come to your mind, sir, what is this home equity? I will try to explain this to you and I will also try to explain how it can be leveraged.
So, home equity in cash, now what is this method, I will discuss this with you, but right now what is going on in the media about it, that the average rate has reached 7%. After the mortgage, the home owners, sorry, are the home owners who are taking an equity home loan. Let me explain it to you in simple terms, what is an equity home loan or home equity loan.
First understand this, suppose you have a house, you took a loan on it, the loan value is Rs. 4.30 crore, that is, at 90% of the value. Suppose the bank gives you a loan, now you have paid the loan for three years, now your balance in the bank has decreased from Rs. 4.5 crore to Rs. 3.5 crore, that is, you have returned Rs.
1 crore, Rs. 1 crore. So the bank is giving you a facility that brother, look, you have given Rs. 1 crore, but during this period the value of the house must have also fallen, so we reduce it, find out the current price of the house and we adjust it with the loan that you have given, the loan that you have repaid.
Suppose today the value of your house has come to Rs. 3.9 crore because the house is a little old, it is an old flat. You have lost 3.9 crore rupees, your outstanding relief is 3.5 crore rupees, so we will give you 40 lakh rupees which you have, and how are we giving you that 40 lakh rupees, if you renovate this house then the value of your house will increase, so you can do it for reduction, now you can do it for other purposes also, we give you a CC limit which is called line of credit, so these are two ways, either you are given the money immediately, you do the renovation and do it for other purposes because the value of the house will increase again, then the loan of the bank will be cleared because with the money given to you you are doing new renovation in the house, suppose if you have an old property then you have improved the structure in it, or you have a flat etc.
then you have done interior work etc. in it due to which the value of the house will increase, so this is called home equity loan, so this home equity loan is available in two ways, that is, one lump sum We give money to Dog, which other way should we give money to Dog, and this way should we give money to Dog, brother, do it when necessary, so this type of loan, in a way, exposes the hidden value of the house, so this method is revolving credit, that is, your credit will be lost and if you default, your house will be confiscated, so this is the biggest risk in it, so now the thing is that inflation is going to increase in America, so in this way people are taking loans even against the installments they have already paid on their house, and if this chicken crisis or loan crisis occurs, then this can again be a challenge for the banks because the finance that the banks have done is for these liquid assets and it is possible that when they are not in a position to pay this money because the people who are taking loans are buried in debt, so many people are not able to see their financial discipline and they know that sir, the money has gone into liquid assets and when they do not have liquidity or source of If there is no earning then it can be a big challenge, so this home equity loan can be a risk and it is probably not, but it can be a risk of another kind, it is probably Michael Burry who has been sitting on it because Michael Burry's tweets are pointing towards this, so where is he pointing, for whom is he pointing, so this is the thing, I tried to explain to you, now it is good, what is the ease in this, taking this loan is easy, because the bank already has the house, you have your papers, after all the papers are done, the bank will give you the money immediately, the amount you have paid and the price of the house today, not the outstanding amount and the fair value of the house today, like the prices change daily in the stock market, the value of the loan also keeps changing accordingly, for example, suppose you take your margin or take loan against security, you have shares worth 10 lakh in the bank, I will give you a loan of ₹6 lakh, if the value of your shares reaches ₹20 lakh, then in the bank I will give you 60% of 12 lakhs but if it decreases from 10 lakhs to 4 lakhs then the bank's brother will give you 2 lakh 40000 and the extra amount that you have taken as loan and give me that money immediately, you have taken a lion worth 10 lakhs, the bank has given you a loan of 6 lakhs, now the price of the lion has decreased to 5 lakhs, so the bank has 60% of 5 lakhs, I will give you 3 lakhs, bring the 3 lakhs that you have kept extra and deposit it with me, so when such a crisis comes, what is its effect, along with it other effects come, that is, it goes from one asset to another, from the second to the third, so if there is a default at one place then you will default, the bank has also taken money from the bank, if there is a default from there then a chain is created, so this risk arises when the value of assets decreases, then this risk arises, so this loan again can also happen in security Those who have taken loan again security, they should understand that these types of risks are involved in leveraged positions and it is very easy to take money there and the reason why people take this money so much is because there is a huge discount on income tax, there is a deduction in income tax which you give to banks for such loans, so you get discount on mortgage loan, that is, the home equity loan taken for the house, so this is seen to be growing very fast in a big way, at this time the biggest challenge there is that it is being antiseptic that brother, this risk can happen, now if we talk about what is the problem in this, brother, the problem is that it is easily available, this is the biggest problem because you got the money easily, now you have taken the money and you have not assessed yourself that brother, how much money is to be invested in financial discipline, then this literacy is also less there as it is in India and when anyone It looks a little bit like this or if you assume that inflation remains high for a long time, then the demand will remain high and then people will demand because I need more money and what happens in that case, people will say let me sell my house at a cheaper price but I need money, so these are the reasons and even if they don't sell, if you start defaulting on loans, then the banks will start selling, so the foreclosure is a very high risk and then the banks will come to sell those assets, then the supply will come rapidly and you know that the real estate is a mechanism of liquid assets, you have just seen what happened in China, the risk has come because of the property, the real estate risk there is in China, the financial difficulties that are arising in real estate are also arising due to this because real estate is in liquid assets, if they themselves do not generate cash, that is, they themselves will not be used for rent, the people living in it are not earning very well, so it becomes a burden When it comes to real estate, we have seen that risk in Surprise and also in China and they are anti-spreading it again and if the sale of houses starts falling then it could be a huge crisis like it was in 2008.
Perhaps Michael is doing anti-spreading, so what is the reason, I have tried to tell you this. Apart from this, you see, I told you that what Michael said is right and Warren Buffett has also reduced his stock investment of eight billion. He has invested money in government securities, which are safe investments, which he likes very little.
So you will understand that he is keeping his money in cash right now and he himself is keeping himself away from what to do. So this is also a cause of concern that has been created in that market. Now see, if something happens in that then our markets will not be spared, keep this in mind, you people will say no sir, this will not happen, I will tell you, there is a sentiment effect, if we consider that like There is also a sealing going on in Chinese banks and there will be selling in their banks as well, so a sentiment effect can happen in Indian banks as well.
Indian banks are the biggest gainers in Nifty today and after that the rest of the fines did not go through, apart from the higher interest rates, if banks in India need growth capital, then loans for growth capital will be expensive, that is not sustainable for our banks as well, so due to that also the valuation of our banks is going down and the third thing is that if the interest rates in it remain high and do not come down, then the Indian government, keeping its forex region in mind, will not be able to cut the interest rates because the risk will remain within the Indian bound market as well, so these are some of the reasons due to which there can be a risk in India as well, but it is not our own risk, but the risk that will arise from that can impact our markets as well and apart from this, see Rich Dada Pur Dada, many people like him must have read it and even if they have not read it, then it will not be much for him.
What do the finance experts who are fond of robots say? They say that Buffett's value as of today is 147 billion 147 billion dollars. Now multiply it by 83 and the value in Indian rupees will be 14700. Multiply it by 83 and you will get a value of A. If you multiply, the value of the number 60 company in Nifty is A.
So, he is sitting with this much value in cash and is saying where is he investing his money? In short term treasury, short term terrorism, meaning they feel that if the market falls in the fall, they will buy when the prices are good. They say that this is the person who always advocates equity and he is sitting with such a huge amount in cash, that is a risk and the risk of recession is still not over, it can end by 2024, people still believe this 50-50, now if we talk about it, then this information, like I just said I told you that there are 13F filings, which reveal where the big players have created positions.
For example, here, those who hold more than 1% of equity provide disclosures. Similarly, the Coins Asset Management Fund has provided this disclosure. After that, if we talk about the treasury assets here, they are increasing their holdings. Now, let's talk about some technical aspects. If we look at all these things, we are not talking about the markets but about some of the market giants.
One of the giants is Apple. If you look at the chart of Apple on the screen, you will see that it has broken its trade line and is moving up from there. Look, I will tell you this after all this. Just because some big player has created a position, it does not mean that there will be a complete shutdown.
Use your brain and it is very difficult to affect the market. There are many things that affect it. And we discussed it in a very large application setting, or sometimes we increase our cash positions, for that too, such positions are kept that brother, we keep cash right now and if the market goes down, then we use our options for that.
Apart from this, look at the chart of Apple's balance, I am showing you and this is the chart of One De, which is below its trade line and it has made a breakdown because it is very strong within the index and within the sentiment, that is, two zones, a strong lion along with a sentiment-creating lion and Tesla is also included in it, that is, Tesla also falls in this category, yes, but Tesla leads the technology.
Now, if you look at this balance of Apple in the weekly chart, brother, what a big candle has formed within three weeks. We have tried to make a snake effect trade of this Apple, which is indicating that if there is a decline in Apple, then this story is a warning for the markets, in this way, it is shown on the chart of One De.
If you look at it, you will see that after a good trend in the last 2 months, it had given a good trend but it is again seen moving towards showing weakness and you will see that Tesla is a big time share, if you look at the high price of Tesla in the last 3 years, then it is around 400 $ and if you look at its low, then it is around 110 ₹, so how fast did this share break and how fast did it rise, you should understand this and the thing about Tesla is that where we have exchange credit funds, whoever has invested in it through its related ATF, their price fluctuates very fast, now if we look at the daily chart of Tesla, then we will see that here in the daily chart also, if we look at the pattern of the last six days, then a Do word trade has happened here, after this, if we look at Microsoft also, if you want to see the pattern of Microsoft's chart, then Microsoft also has a negative pattern on the daily chart and if you see Microsoft also, it is a giant company of two generations, so these signals from here If you look at Microsoft in the daily chart frame, you will see this kind of weakness.
If you look at Microsoft in the monthly chart, then in the last one, a ceiling has come to be seen from above, but right now there are no clear indications in the monthly chart. Friends, let me tell you what this is because I have discussed this with you many times. You will see, there are such stocks which do bullishness and also do bearishness.
They hold their positions and remain in cash for a long time and as soon as they get an opportunity in cash, they grab that opportunity and build positions aggressively. When they do bullishness, they keep doing it very bullishly, which means in your understanding, they will keep accelerating a ₹100 thing till ₹500 and when it comes to a fall, then they are eager for a ₹500 thing to fall to ₹100 as well because they do their positions with a ceiling at every level.
They are from options or derivatives and then they create positions on them, that is why in the Indian markets also you must have seen many times that the markets fall very fast below the fundamental value and also go very fast above the fundamental value and in this series you will see that we have also created a position, that is, we have also created a position in divisional because we feel that the fundamental value should not be 3700, we feel that again and again the fundamental value of the shares is around 22300, so we have also created a temple effort within it and when the price came up, we have held it, so we know that from the position here, we know how much effort we have to make, how much effort we can maintain, so you should know this, this is not what I said I have maintained, you can also create that position, how much do you have to invest, how much capital do you have How will you protest against it?
It is possible that your entire portfolio is long and you are sitting short in one or two stocks. For example, mostly pharma stocks are rising and you have taken a short position in one or two stocks which are looking overvalued to you, then if you hit a black hole, it will create a mismatch in your understanding and our understanding.
So the thing is that if we are taking a position on a particular stock and the stocks are being formed in the rest of the stocks, then in a way we are taking a position there also because we feel that we have taken a position in that which is overvalidated. I think that today's video will be very useful for you and you will get to learn a lot.
I have no concern with this news that brother, after seeing this news, I will make a market or make a bull run. I am doing my normal trading investing in the way it is. It is not going to have any big impact on me because you will see that such news keeps coming and going. There are many market experts who sometimes talk about a huge rally.
We talk about the big market, but I say that I try to trade and invest only on my own discretion and I will say the same to you that avoid all the places but you take the decision brother, what do you want to do and what is your risk profile, how much patience do you have, how are you looking at the market, collect knowledge from all around, read it and then understand it and I will say this to you, last but note this list was only and only for educational purpose, if you take any trade or investment then definitely take it from your fist, thank you for watching the video, thank you very much
Comments 0