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my first investment with my pitiful savings of adventurism sword i invested in a community right in pasadena and it was called william miller instruments and i damn near lost all my money it was hell on earth we just barely squeaked out with a substantial outcome but and what did this end is that the the ocelograph that we'd invented and we were so proud of and we thought it was going to knock the world flat somebody invented magnetic tape without telling me and by the time we got that telegraph ready to go to market we sold three three total in the whole world whole country well this technology is a killer as well as an opportunity and my first experience that damn near killed me over the long term the companies of america behave more like biology than they do anything else in biology all the individuals die and so do all the species it's just a question of time and that's pretty well what happens in the economy too all the things that were really great when i were young have receded enormously and new things have come up and some of them started to die and that is what the long-term investment climate is and it does make it very interesting look at what's died all the department stores all the newspapers u.s steel john d rockefeller's standard oil the pale shadow of his former self you know it's just like biology so they have their little power they have their little time and then then they get clobbered so one has to accept limitations is that one of the really important pieces of avoiding these biases what i would say is the single most important thing if you want to avoid a lot of stupid errors is knowing where you're competent and where you aren't knowing the edge of your own competency and that's very hard to do because the human mind naturally tries to make you think you're way smarter than you are well my opinion on that is no better than anybody else's and but if you i i think it's quite likely that that a year from now the worst of that will be very thoroughly behind us it's amazing i watched the polio get totally killed by the vaccinations and i think they'll spread these vaccines over the world so fast it'll make your head swim so i think this horrible covered thing is very likely to shrink to insignificance in the course of the next year i remember that i did not make my fortune such as it is by predicting macroeconomic changes better than other people what buffett and i did was we bought things that were promising and then we just sometimes we had a tailwind from the economy and sometimes we had a headwind and either way we just kept swimming that's our system and so we can ask what did you think about that and then his second question is did you ever make a bad business decision well the answer is the second one is of course i've made bad business decisions you can't live a successful life without taking some doing some difficult things that go wrong that's just the nature of the game and you wouldn't be sufficiently courageous if you tried to avoid every single reverse you expect the next 10 years to have lower returns in the equity markets than the last 10.
it doesn't give us an idea why the answer is yes could you give us a hint as to why that might happen yes because so many people are in it and the frenzy is so great and the systems of management the reward systems are so foolish that that i don't think it's going to work at all i don't think i think the returns will go down yes in real terms the returns will be lower is the nasdaq in a bubble well i i nobody knows when bubbles are going to blow up i think great investors to some extent are like great chess players they're almost born to be investors and that's because of the tolerance for risk is it the patience what are the traits obviously you have to know a lot but partly it's temperament partly it's deferred gratification you've got to be willing to wait and it's a weird good investing requires a weird combination of patience and aggression and not many people have it it also has to it requires a big amount of self-awareness and how much you know and how much you don't know you have to know the edge of your own competency and a lot of brilliant people are no good at knowing the edge of their own competency they think they're way smarter than they are and of course that that's dangerous and causes trouble i'm 16.
i want to take up investing as a full-time career what is mr munger's best advice for me well if you pursue any career with enough fanaticism that's that's very likely to work better than not having the fanaticism and so if you look at warren buffett he had this fanatic interest in investments from an early age and he kept making small investments even with his paper out savings and so forth and he he finally learned how to be pretty good at it and so if you want to succeed in investments start early and try hard and keep doing it it's very that's that's all success comes that way but by and large chris tenberg asked what are you most curious of about in the next 30 to 40 years well having been an investor for so long i'm of course interested in these weird present conditions and these weird economic conditions where they're printing money like crazy and so forth and of course that's very interesting and and i'm interested in the fact that the world has come so far and having these undeveloped countries get ahead so fast like china then i compare india which has a way worse economic record even though they got more of our political incident you know they got more free speech in india and a way worse economic achievement i think the economic development of the modern world is very interesting it's a very interesting subject and i see why so many people in economics like it because it is just so perplexing and so interesting and of course the achievements have been so great and so i think a lot is enemy technology is the same way who would guess that the whole world could have colloquia on zoom we weren't doing it a year and a half ago i mean it's it's just amazing what's happened thank you and see you next video bye
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