저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄: 나스닥·기술주의 3주 연속 하락은 과매수 해소에 따른 건강한 조정이며 시장 전체로 보면 큰 조정도 아니라는 진단. [조정 성격] 나스닥은 10% 이상 하락했지만 S&P500은 아직 조정 수준이 아니고, 가치주는 1~2% 하락에 그침. 9월은 원래 힘든 달이며 역사적으로 9월 옵션만기 후 주간은 평균 1% 미만 하락 편향이 있음. [옵션 만기] 분기 옵션·선물 만기는 비교적 질서 있게 진행됐고, 미결제약정이 많았지만 대부분 콜옵션이 크게 외가격화되어 개인의 상승 베팅 프리미엄이 소멸. 이로 인해 단기적으로 개인의 개별주 콜옵션 매수 쏠림이 줄어들 수 있음. [가치 vs 성장] 펀드매니저 Nancy는 가치 운용사로서 기술 성장주와 구경제주를 함께 편입(바벨 구조)하고 헬스케어, 경기소비재, 산업재, 기술주를 비중확대. 배당 지급·증가 기업을 선호하되 배당이 없어도 합리적 가격의 성장이 있으면 매입. [가치주 랠리 전망] 성장과 가치의 격차는 1999년 이후 최대 수준. Siegel은 경기 재개와 저금리 하에서 배당주 수요(수익률 추구)로 향후 1년간 가치주가 성장주를 앞설 것으로 전망. 다만 2021년에는 결국 성장주가 우위일 것이라고 봄. [섹터] 특정 섹터 추천은 하지 않음. 금융(상업용 부동산·중소기업 대출 리스크)은 손상 우려, 항공·엔터테인먼트 등 일부는 회복 여지. 향후 12~18개월간 수익률(배당) 있는 기업으로 자금 이동 예상. [리스크] 미국 대선으로 2개월간 불확실성 지속 예상. 국채 금리 약 0.5% 수준으로 소득 확보 수단으로는 부족.
다듬은 글
what's your take on that professor siegel uh the size of the pullback and and the persistence of it three weeks in a row of declines i think it's healthy i mean i think that the nasdaq and the tech got uh way overbought uh and it's it's a healthy correction i mean we don't even have a correction i don't think in the s p nasdaq's down more than 10 s p less value stocks are just down one or two percent uh uh i i think it's basically healthy i mean september's a tough month and and nasdaq listen the whole market had one of the greatest rallies in its entire history a breather or a correction is certainly nothing uh unexpected i think steve we did see uh quarter expiration options activity anything strange going into the clothes that could have impacted the way we finished it was actually more orderly sarah than i expected in many ways this morning we didn't really see much of a ramp one way or the other when the futures and the futures options and the index options expired and going into the close today there wasn't anything that i would call out of the ordinary there was huge open interest but so much of that was in call options that are now way out of the money that um that it was a relatively orderly uh expiration considering considering the magnitude of the quarterly expiration and the magnitude of the open interest and and just overall interest in options that we've seen um this quarter mike that that expiration what does it mean for the for the month ahead the week ahead uh if if those those call options have expired whether in the money out of the money the fact that they've expired and there was just so many of them over the course of the last couple of months well historically the week after september expiration has a net negative bias i mean not dramatically so a little under one percent i think is the average over recent years uh but it should mean perhaps that the market can can start trading in a back and forth way a little more on corporate fundamentals not that it hasn't been but i would point out that as steve says this absolutely massive volume of call options that were so far out of the money what that means is the lopsided public buying of individual stock call options to play further upside was just obliterated right so in other words you had all this premium bought by the public that just went away and so you wonder if that's going to change forward-going behavior at all at least in the short term nancy you said you were taking the opportunity to to buy some of the names that you like are they value or are they technology growth and does it have to be an either or no it doesn't sarah um we we are value managers but i guess uh maybe more growth at a reasonable price so i remember the last time that value uh outperformed for more than three weeks and that was 2017 when we had global synchronized growth we may get that again with the strong pmis but we've been adding to both we've barbelled the portfolio so we have added to some of the tech but we've added to some old economy names as well and then really just uh spread out our exposure in you know overweights with healthcare consumer discretionary industrials and technology so we like names that pay dividends and grow the dividends but we're also willing to step in where there is no dividend if we think future you know growth is is um being purchased at a reasonable price professor siegel if the nasdaq and tech names got overbought to what extent were the cyclicals uh underboard and have they closed that gap yet or is they still attractively valued for the long term closed at about this much uh we had extreme between the growth stocks and the value stocks really last reached in in 1999 before that probably the nifty 50 craze of 1975 it's a 20 25 year period i think value will outperform over the next year with the reopening of the economy and the search for yield because you know the fed told us rates gonna be zero people are gonna migrate towards uh i think the dividend paying stocks saying you know where am i where else am i gonna get yield and uh i think those two argue for finally growth outperforming in 2021.
so which type of value outperformance what kind of stocks are you talking about banks which which haven't really fully joined the value rally like an industrial group or materials group which ones are you eyeing well you know i don't particularly recommend sectors i mean i think the financials are hurt first of all is you know what's commercial property could be permanently impaired probably will be in value and and so much banks are loans against the small businesses of course which don't have stocks they're reflected in those banks so those are the one i mean you know you one one could think of those in the entertainment in the airline industry some of those that that might do better going forward but i i think actually those that that have yield and are not have threatened yield are going to be ones that people are going to be looking at in in the next 12 to 18 months as as interest rates stay at zero and uh and we know treasury bond rates uh uh also at one half percent not not anything that you can get your your income out of that you'll need so i think there will be a migration uh in into those sectors we have the election coming up we we should mention that i think that's going to keep uncertainty on the table for the next two months uh until that
Comments 0