저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인플레이션은 내년 중반 2% 아래로 하락할 것이며, 이에 따라 금리 인하 기대와 주식·비트코인 상승을 전망한다. 인플레이션 전망: 10월 CPI 근원 물가는 전월 0.16% 수준이며, 주거비(약 8%대 상승)가 둔화되고 중고차 가격과 차량보험·수리비 상승이 꺾이면서 물가가 내년 중반 2% 미만으로 내려갈 것으로 본다. 에너지와 물가: 에너지 가격 상승이 다른 품목으로 전이될 수 있으나, 연준은 에너지를 끈적한 물가와 다르게 취급할 것이라고 진단한다. 주식 전망: 연말 S&P500 신고가를 기대하며, 8월 조정이 5~10%일 수 있으나 현금 5조 달러가 대기 중이라고 본다. 연준이 한 차례 더 인상해도 시장이 흡수할 수 있고, S&P500 에너지 제외 기업 이익이 6분기 만에 약 3% 성장해 이익 회복이 있다고 본다. 금리가 안정되면 현금이 투자로 전환될 것이다. 중국 변수: 중국 수출 약세와 디플레이션이 미국 생산자물가·CPI를 낮출 수 있으나, 중국 경기 침체는 우려 요인이다. 비트코인 전망: 금융 여건 완화 기대가 암호화폐에 유리하다. 현물 비트코인 ETF가 미국에서 승인되면 수요가 공급을 초과해 청산가격이 15만 달러 이상, 최대 약 18만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 본다. 승인되지 않으면 약 2만 9천 달러 부근에 머물 수 있으나 내년 반감기 효과로 상승 여지는 있다. 비트코인과 이더리움이 규제 명확성 측면에서 가장 쉽게 접근 가능한 자산이라고 본다. 리스크: 중국 경기 둔화, 연준 추가 인상 가능성, 8월 조정 가능성, ETF 승인 불발.
다듬은 글
Join us now for a closer look at the markets today. Today is Wednesday. Sometimes we might invite you on Monday to find out what happens during the week after you make that weekly call that you're not going to make anymore. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors and CNBC contributor. Tom, you , uh, you're rightly optimistic.
And then , recently, in August, uh, you thought maybe we'd take a break. I don't know if it's more than that. Maybe, maybe a 10% pullback, maybe not. But it also matters . That's true. August is typically a historically difficult month, especially when markets are strong prior to July. Uh, it seems like the weakness is much more pronounced, especially because yields are up, the dollar is strong, and I think people are maybe a little worried about China as well.
So I think later this month, starting with the FOMC minutes, and then we'll get Jackson Hole, and then, you know, at the end of the month, we'll get the PCE inflation date. Maybe that's when the markets will start to feel better. Um, maybe we could have ended August a little better than we started, but you're right, maybe it could have been quite a bit deeper.
Your forecast was based on the inflation trend that continued and the week you made the forecast. It was based on inflation figures that were coming out that week, which were favorable. They were soft, but in the meantime the economy was much stronger than most people thought, and now it's not going to be a landing or a soft landing, or people think the narrative has changed.
Um, but you still feel that inflation will show a downward trend in PC. What do you say 2%. Yes, that's true. I think the core inflation, uh, this is what it was last month at 0.16. This still reflects an increased level of housing construction. Housing provision is, you know, about 8%. This will start to cool down and there will be a much bigger price drop on used cars and then on basic services which is the rest of this part.
It's actually cooling down because it was kind of pushed by vehicle insurance and car repairs that will start to fade. So I think inflation is on a positive trajectory to less than three, less than two, by the middle of next year. That's why I think with sub-point two, I think we could print something pretty low, because when the housing price drops to zero, then you could have a base price at zero.
I mean, you could have a zero month- over-month or even a negative month- over- month for some time. This is strange. We have...It's like a shock. Well, we refuse. We give up energy. Yes, that's right. It helps because the energy is there, but then it filters down to other things where it seems to be able to manifest even if you deny it.
That's right. Because diesel fuel is filtered as a fuel fee. Eh, I think the Fed will be a little alarmed by the energy, but they will treat it differently than they would something sticky. Um, because , you know, energy can be peculiar sometimes. You know, the ups and downs. So, less than 2%. So year-end highs are still in your plan for all of the S&P's all-time highs by year-end.
Yes. I think that no matter how bad August is, maybe even if we fall 5.8% in August , um, 5 trillion in cash will be left out. I think a lot of people still think the Fed is going to raise rates. Um, but if they just do one more hike, I think the market can absorb it. And then, of course, growth picks up, and look at the S&P x energy returns.
They grew by almost 3% in the quarter, the first time in six quarters. So I think you have a recovery in profits. The Fed may be slowing down. Interest rates may stabilize, and then cash will start working. Can we do all this when China is falling out of bed? Uh, I mean, we really need to watch this closely because, on the one hand, the weakness in China's exports due to deflation, which gives us some idea in 2024 that, you know, producer price indices and CPI could be softer.
But you don't want the second largest economy to fall into a recession, depression or recession. How does this inflation forecast and economic growth forecast affect your cryptocurrency forecast? Uh, I feel like they're all very interconnected for you personally. Yes, because cryptocurrency depends on monetary policy.
Right. Right. So, if, uh, inflation is coming down, then we can start betting on easing financial conditions in the future and central bank easing more quickly. That's optimistic for cryptocurrency, right? Alternative assets . Yes. Good. But I'm trying to understand what point of view you've come back to?
Uh, do you see what I'm getting at? I mean, cryptocurrency is a residual distribution based on what a central bank could do. And of course, you know, Bitcoin alone has a catalyst if it's an ETF, which, you know, we're in a window where we start to see the potential for SEC approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
And are you exclusively Bitcoin at the moment ? Uh, I think Bitcoin and Ethereum are the easiest to navigate because their regulatory status is much clearer. And even today's Coinbase statement shows that these are two ways to get liquid access to cryptocurrency. And, um, I always like hearing your price targets because you're so fearless.
Um, where do you stand on Bitcoin by the end of next year, let's say? Uh, if spot bitcoin is approved, yes, I think the demand will be greater than the daily supply of bitcoin. So the clearing price, uh, this is Sean Ferrell, our crypto- digital strategist, is over 150,000. It could even be around 180,000.
That's only if the spot ETF is approved. A spot ETF in the US because a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved outside the US. Good. But if it doesn't get approved, do we just stick around 29,000? Uh, there's still potential for growth because it's going to happen next year. So you will have a supply drop again. So, the clearing price should increase, but it won't be six figures.
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