저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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Yeti와 Newell Brands 모두 매수 가능성이 있다는 결론이다. Yeti는 쿨러·드링크웨어 등 고성능 아웃도어 제품 중심으로 브랜드 지배력이 강하다. 2021년 대비 매출 성장 둔화(29%→13%)에도 역성장하지 않았고, 매출총이익률은 50%대 초반을 유지했다. 순현금 구조의 탄탄한 재무제표를 가졌고 배당은 없다. Yeti는 최근 분기 매출이 4% 감소했으나 4개년 매출 전망을 상향했고, 하반기와 연말 시즌 개선을 예상했다. 2023년 실적 소폭 감소 가능성은 있으나 상향 서프라이즈 가능성을 언급했다. Newell Brands는 브랜드가 과도하게 많아 포트폴리오 정리가 필요하다. 매출총이익률이 2019년 33.8%에서 2022년 30.2%로 하락했고, 배당은 70% 삭감되었다. 총부채가 50억 달러를 넘어 재무 부담이 크다. Newell은 신임 CEO(Chris Peterson) 체제에서 배당 삭감과 가이던스 하향으로 '배스(bath)'를 마쳤다는 평가다. 마지막 나쁜 분기가 투자 적기라는 논리로 턴어라운드 가능성을 강조했다. 주가는 10배 미만 선행 PER로 밸류 플레이 성격이다. 두 종목 모두 상승 여력이 있다는 입장이며, Yeti는 가속 성장 구간, Newell은 흥미로운 턴어라운드로 평가했다. 다만 Newell은 재무 부담과 브랜드 정리 과제가 남아 있다는 리스크가 함께 언급되었다. 출연자 Jim Cramer는 두 종목 모두 상승 가능성이 있다고 낙관적으로 전망했다.
다듬은 글
foreign got this tremendous quarter from Yeti Holdings which makes high performance Outdoor Products especially coolers drinkware everything you need for a while tailgate party stocks towards 70 response on Thursday breaking out of its long-term Funk going positive for the Year this one's copy water how is it that yetis has hold up so much better than the stock of new brands that's a house consumer products it's a partial competitor through its Coleman outdoor brand new has a ton of other stuff you probably you you have the stuff in your closet Elmer's Glue Paper Mate Sharpies Rubbermaid Yankee Candle crock pot Mr Coffee among other things but these are two companies that make discretionary physical Goods at a time when consumers increasingly want to spend their money on services or experiences now their stocks were during the pandemic then plummeted last year for showing signs of Life recently Yeti caught fire last week now Newell was actually the 16th best performer in the Russell 1000 last month there is a key difference though ever since the market bottom roughly 10 months ago Yeti stock has remounted like crazy up 61 from as close as September while new didn't bottom until this June although we've had more than 35 in a short period of time it's still down 19 for the year ha interesting so what allowed Yeti to turn things around so much faster than new and more importantly can it continue to outperform now first off Yeti didn't get hit as hard in the first place while the revenue growth did decelerate slowing from 29 2021 to just 13 last year their sales never shrank the other hand went from just under 13 growth in 2021 nearly 11 Revenue shrinkage in 2022.
for the full year yet he's on track to generate 6.6 growth that's okay but the animal suspect we will see a 12 decline why didn't Yeti get hit as hard I think it's because Yeti is the dominant brand in the category now Noah by contrast has a ton of brands that are all over the map they have too many Brands but very few are your strongest Yeti's position in coolers you can see this difference when you look at their gross margins what they make on each dollar Revenue after subtracting the cost of goods sold in the last few years Yeti's gross margin has swung from the high 50s in 2021 to the low 50s last year new meanwhile had already seen vicious gross margin contraction in the Years leading up to covet and they didn't get any booster in the pandemic their gross bars and just slipped from 33.8 percent in 2019 down to 30.2 percent last year they were already pretty low to begin with thanks to years of mismanagement fortunately newborn and Lucio a few months ago more on that later by contrast yet it took a big profitability hit when things got ugly last year but that happened off a much higher base I have to admit this move took a lot of people by surprise needless to say yetis earnings proved to be a lot more resilient than noodles when consumers pivoted away from buying actual stuff last year and the conscious has only got more start this year for 2023 Wall Street especially I need to take a three percent reset while NOC Newell earnings plunging by 48 year over year now the numbers are just better for Yeti across the board they've got a nearly pristine balance sheet with more cash than debt that's a nice reverse when it came public knows got a heinous balance sheet with more than 5 billion in debt which is a lot for a 4.4 billion dollar company that used to have a pristine bound sheet Yeti's never paid a dividend but new historically had a pretty generous dividend at least until they had to slash the payout by 70 percent a few months ago instantly take its yield from 9.9 down to 3.3 percent after the stocks stocks rally last month it only yields 2.6 percent here the deputy got cut everyone who'd been sticking with this thing for income by the way that's why I always warn you you say please stay away from anything with an inexplicably large high yield like Newell had within 9.9 percent because it's often a sign that the dividend needs to be slashed all that said even though Yeti's held up much better than new I think both stocks and I know this is going to be curious those stocks might be buys they really might be with Yeti the bookcase is pretty simple last week's terrific numbers uh the company's on track to become a great growth story again like it was when it came public sure Yeti sales came in weaker than expected actually down four percent for the first time but management raised that's right raised it four-year uh sales forecast at the same time saying that second half would be a lot stronger especially the holidays the current quarter might be pretty tepid but in the fourth quarter the consensus assessments go for 23 sales growth you want to get in ahead of that kind of inflection on the Ernie's front they beat numbers and raise their four-year guidance despite the tough sales environment I wouldn't be surprised if Yeti has an up year for earnings even as the aspect of small decline that'd be a nice upside surprise as for no Brands this one is a turnaround story now with the company's got new management back in May the old CEO retired he'd been there for a while Chris Peterson took the job while he's not exactly a newcomer he sure seems like a breath of fresh air do you know in his first day on the job Peterson slashed a dividend painful move but a necessary one he immediately saved the company 265 million per year then when Noah reported in Late July it felt like a kind of kitchen sink quarter you often get from the new CEO wants to reset expectations everything was bad company actually delivered a top and bottom line Beat for the quarter but Peterson gave you Global guidance for the next quarter which is what really mattered and slashed his full year outlook across the board telling the Newell stock actually jumped nearly eight percent response at trading like this was the last bad quarter which is what you're always looking for last bad quarter is the single best time to invest I'm looking for the same thing to happen with Estee Lauder by the way coming up on later this week finally just last week we learned that mules planning to close eight North American distribution centers by the end of next year laying off two percent of the workforce in the process they also plan to automate the remaining 20 warehouses another sign that matches bending over back with the rain in cost and they're closing a lot of their brands they have way too many brands now these two stocks represent two totally different value propositions yet is returning to growth mode it sells for 16.4 times extra certain adjustments neural stock trades at less than 10 times next year's numbers at this point it's a value play honestly I prefer Yeti because they made it very clear that business is about to come back in a big way mule still has a lot more work to do a lot of things to turn around but that's why the Stock's so much cheaper let me give you the bottom line of both these both Yeti and Newell Brands had a rough covet for the past couple of years but Yeti stock held up better thanks to Stronger brand positioning and better management now that Newell's put in a new CEO though I think they can work but these both could work higher I'm not kidding Yeti is an accelerating growth plate and Newell as a really interesting turnaround story with a lot of improvement ahead their money is back after the brick coming up Disney been big on gaming what are the charts saying about this ESPN ante Kramer makes the tackle next
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