Despite this week's pullback, we see tech stocks up 20% going in to 2024, says Wedbush's Dan Ives

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결론: 최근 기술주 조정은 일시적이며 2024년까지 기술주가 약 20% 추가 상승할 것으로 본다. 기술주 전망: 이번 주 데이터독, 슈퍼마이크로, 엔비디아 등의 하락은 일시적 눈치보기 조정으로 보고, 2024년까지 기술주 약 20% 상승을 예상한다. 현재 시장은 매수자 대비 매도 압력 때문에 불안하며 많은 투자자가 제대로 포지셔닝되지 않았다고 평가한다. 클라우드·AI 근거: 마이크로소프트, 아마존, 구글의 실적 상승세를 근거로, 클라우드 지출이 400~500bp 증가할 수 있고 이는 AI 수요가 주도한다고 본다. AI가 사이버보안과 기업 지출 확대를 이끈다는 논리다. 개별 종목: 마이크로소프트는 최선호주, 애플은 최고의 기술주로 꼽으며 1년 뒤 시총 3.5조 달러 가능성, iPhone 15 기반 미니 슈퍼사이클을 전망한다. 팔란티어와 포티넷은 실적 미스 후 하락을 과도한 반응으로 보고 관망 대신 보유 관점을 유지한다. 리비안: 공급망 문제에서 벗어나 턴어라운드 중인 핵심 EV 플레이어로 평가하며 긍정적이다. AI 시대 비유: 현재를 1999~2000년 닷컴 버블이 아니라 1995년(웹·넷스케이프 등장기)에 비유하며, 향후 10년간 약 1조 달러 증분 지출이 예상된다고 주장한다. 전략: 하락을 기회로 보고 고객을 '손잡고(hand holding)' 보유시키는 중이며, 엘리베이터에서 뛰어내릴 때가 아니라는 입장이다.

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01. now but the tech rally we had a huge rally right most of the Year losing a little bit of steam over the last week or so data dog super micro Nvidia they're all among this week's worst performers even Apple has been dropping lately but your next guest expects any pullback like this one to be short-lived and he is reiterating his bullish call for a much as 15 gain for Tech just macro Tech I guess for the end of the year spring in wed Bush's Dan Ives Dan is that a macro Tech call I mean to us but we're seeing from Enterprise spend I think in terms of where we see guidance and I think the AI Revolution the fourth Industrial Revolution is now taking hold and we believe this is just half time of a new tech ball who's gonna drive it because stocks go up when there's more buyers and sellers I think big Tech ultimately driving I mean if I look into mean upticks from this earnings season from Microsoft of course to Amazon with the flux the muscles quarter Google and what we see going to the second half I mean we believe ultimately spending could increase four or five hundred bips on the cloud and that ultimately is going to be driven from what we're seeing on AI and that's going to drive cyber security it's going to drive broader Enterprise and I think many investors here are not positioned well where we believe going in 2024 we see tech stocks off another 20 from these levels well I don't know if you heard Stephanie Link a few minutes ago Dan if if you did I'll just reiterate what you said for the viewers that maybe you didn't neither would afford a net right ftnt is cyber security company got crushed felt like 20 percent last week if cyber security palantir I know a name that you cover and and like if this is the future and we know how what a threat cyber is wire an investor why are they selling at the drop of a hat with a number that slightly misses there's nervousness Right In terms not just in terms of fed backdrop in terms of maybe how some of these names have run and you're not yet seen a parabolic growth but also when I look at Fortinet that's a team I look at palantir another cable bound they're Microsoft continues to be our top pick and I think the best tech name out there is Apple where I think we sit here a year from now we're looking into three and a half trillion dollar Mark cap iPhone 15 we think it's going to be a mini super cycle and I think that right now is just the cinnamon glass half you know when I think last half empty relative to Tech but I just believe this is just just get popcorn moment what I view is a massive second half rally for tech stocks and you still love Arabian rivn the electric truck and suv maker I mean look to me they are a core EV player I don't mean you've talked about a you know a bungee when I looked at looked at rivian doesn't mean many winners and I think what rivian's now it's finally turned in the corner from a supply chain to strong and this green tidal wave is playing out and that's why I just continue to take a step back here it's a 1995 moment not in 1999 2000 internet 1995 and there's the biggest transformational Tech Trend we've seen 30 years which is why I view this as a bright green light to impact despite many young fire and Crown Theater it does feel listen it does feel like artificial intelligence AI is maybe the or could be the biggest transformational thing maybe perhaps tell me if this is hyperbole it's since basically the creation of say the World Wide Web I mean it's a way that we we change the way we work right you had the internet of course you know dial up modems things like that the web comes out AOL makes it accessible Netscape feels like a Netscape kind of moment in a way if that makes any sense I mean it it is and I think that's why it's a 1995 model not in 1999 2000 we're talking about incrementally a trillion dollars of incremental spend next decade that's why when I look at quarter knee-jerk reactions of some of these quarters intact I view that as just table Stakes relative to where I see these names going over the next 12 18 24 months and that's why we're hand holding our clients through this because I believe this is more of an opportunity not the time to hit the elevator