저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 펫 인간화(Humanization of Pets) 테마는 장기 성장 스토리로 유효하며, 2019년 성과가 좋아 가상 ETF를 리밸런싱해 계속 상승을 기대한다. 테마 배경과 ETF 성과 반려동물을 가족처럼 대하며 사료·의료 지출이 늘어나는 트렌드를 강조. 작년 8월 만든 가상 펫 ETF는 약 10개월간 약 5% 상승해 S&P500(2.6%)을 소폭 앞섰고, 2019년 연초 이후로는 약 25% 상승해 S&P500 16%를 크게 웃돌았다. 종목별 점검 및 비중 조정 센트럴가든앤펫(Central Garden & Pet): 2분기 실적 기대 이상으로 바닥을 쳤다고 판단, 비중 10%→5%로 축소하며 보유. 펫IQ(PetIQ): 수의사 클리닉 사업과 Parnell 동물건강 인수 등 스토리는 유효하다고 보나 주가 약세, 비중 10%→5%로 축소하며 보유. 펫메드익스프레스(PetMed Express): 실적 쇼트폴과 경쟁 심화(chewy, 월마트)로 실적 달성을 의심, 펀드에서 완전 제외. 헨리 샤인(Henry Schein): 동물건강 사업을 분사·합병(Vets First Choice)했으나 분사 후 실적 부진 및 고PER(약 42.5배) 부담, 비중 6.25%로 편입 유지. 엘랑코(Elanco): 일라이릴리에서 분사 후 주가 박스권, 장기 스토리 긍정적으로 보고 비중 7.5% 유지. 츄이(Chewy): 최근 IPO 종목으로 펫 온라인 리테일 대표주, 비중 12.5%로 편입하되 분할 매수 권장. 기타 언급 종목 월마트(Walmart), 제너럴밀스(General Mills), J.M. Smucker, 블루버팔로(Blue Buffalo), IDEXX Laboratories, Zoetis, Freshpet 등은 2019년 상승 종목으로 언급. 출연자 전망 시청자 질의에 대해 츄이는 좋은 회사로 매수 지지(분할 매수), 샤인(Shane)이 보유한 종목은 성장 부족을 이유로 매도 가능성을 언급하며 신중. 에릭은 W(Wayfair) 관련 질문에 RH(Restoration Hardware) 언급. 전반적으로 펫 테마에 대한 장기 낙관 유지. 리스크 개별 종목 실적 쇼트폴, 신규 경쟁자 출현, 고PER 부담, IPO 종목 변동성이 주요 리스크로 언급됨.
다듬은 글
ever since the explosive chewy IPO last week I can't stop thinking about that humanization a pet serie we had that's the idea that Americans increasingly treat their cats and dogs as members of the family and when you act like your pets are human as we do at home you spend a lot more money on food and healthcare now I've been pounding the table on this story for ages you know that that's why last August we actually created a chef a whole humanization of pets ETF an index consisting of our 10 favorite names in the space in the wake of the Chuy deal I think it's worth checking up on this ETF and maybe even update it because there's been some changes as it turns out we were a little early with this one the Mad Money unionization of pets ETF is up nearly 5% since we created it less than 10 months ago only slightly better than the 2.6 percent return from the S&P 500 over that exact same period impressive maybe unimpressive however like I said we were early if you look at the performance over the course of 2019 tells a very different story the pets ETF is up roughly 25% year today trouncing the 16% return for the sp500 in the original formulation we had different weddings for each of the 10 stocks in the index central garden and pet company pet IQ pet net Express they got 10% idec's laboratories zoetis and fresh pet 15% and that's some of the less focused ones like General Mills Henry Schein JM Smucker and Walmart members tell pet food none of them pure plays got anywhere from 4 point 5 to 8% now some of these were big big winners but we also had three double-digit losers central garden and pet and it's down almost 27% pet IQ felt nearly 21% pet net Express lost more than half half of its value thanks for nothing still mad about that those are some real stinkers frankly that have been a huge drag on the pet ETFs overall performance even idec's the Kramer fav veterinary diagnostic equipment maker more supple as a lagger it's up just 9% everything else rally double digits of course the timing on this thing was awful we created the humanization of pet CTF last August right before the stock market beat and then no down in the fourth quarter that sell up was pretty hard on high-flying grow stocks like idec's and while these names have come back into the style of the wall street fashion away you know what they're to climb out of a very big hole on the other end fresh pizza lettuce the two other Fotopoulos in our fictional ETF run thirty five and twenty four percent respectively and it's a good thing we included some big packaged food companies like General Mills okay well Blue Buffalo let's put the old smoker further pet food divisions as both stocks have rallied just under twenty percent over the same period Walmart's up sixteen percent that's a real favor stock that amazing that things just creeps up and creeps up now and since the beginning of 2019 these stocks have really caught fire only central garden in pet and pet net are down your date everything else is up by fifteen percent or more those are some spectacular numbers so what is the jangheung veterinary health care company we have one all the time it's rallied thirty percent for the year it's still only the sixth best performer in short mutation of pets team is red-hot right now but you need to be selective about how you play so what happened with those losers that are a pet ETF and what should we do about them do we dump them from the index entirely or just cut our exposure this is not easy to do look the big problems here central garden a pet IQ and pet net Express we got it we got to dissect these three stocks bouncing lovely but their overall performance is still pretty hideous one by one central garden in pet distributes pet lawn and garden supplies although most of its business is pet related the stock got obliterated when the company reported an athiest quarter in February CEO George Ross tried to reassure his investors but then five days later he announced his upcoming planned retirement it didn't know but sense of bargain paid Ghetts 40 percent of its sales from the garden side of the business and garden got a very late start this year because of the awful weather tell me about it as a gardener the good news is central garden has already bottomed after the company delivered better than expected results in May at these levels the stock has gotten a lot cheaper than it was last year and you don't let it be a mistake you totally bail on it so let's keep central garden and peten etf but cut its weighting from 10 percent to 5 percent next up there's pet IQ to make drugs for animals as well as an operator of veterinary clinics we just had a very bullish conversation with the CEO right before we created the immunization fits index however his stock could also run for the mid 20s to just under 40 in a very short period of time and in retrospect I was chasing when I recommended it at that level that was wrong sure enough pet IQ was crushed during the growth sell-off in the fourth quarter and it's never really come back plus it doesn't help that the company reported a not so hot quarter in March and then some short sellers started going after the them for their VIP petcare acquisition which gave them the veterinary clinic business we like that business however last month pet IQ reported solid core and we learned that they're acquiring para glows animal health unit for a hundred eighty five million and until expected to be additive to Early's within a year of his closing well I don't have a great read on that the IP pet care situation the story seems intact to me I still think there is enormous potential but we want to cut pet IQs allocation from 10 percent to 5 percent leave it in the portfolio now third there's pet Med Express the company behind 1-800 pet meds America's largest animal oriented pharmacy this stock had already been pulverized when we created ETF they recently reported shortfall and I should have followed my own rules might keep it in the penalty box remember what I always say a shortfall means you got at least weight one quarter I didn't listen to myself pet bed struggling with new competitors in the space including chewy and an online pet pharmacy launched by Walmart while the stock seems cheap I have a hard time believing pet med will be able to make the numbers so we're removing it from the humanization pet CTF entirely sorry go on we also need to remove Henry Schein why because the company spun off its animal health unit back in February they merged it with vets first choice to create a new entry for veterus veterus what's not like that could have been that bank that BBT and SunTrust to veterus or it could have been the the plant division of a DuPont Dell or you know I mean now this company is a major distributor of veterinary supplies but its stock has been done so far in part because called veterus laid an egg in its first service report as an independent company plus it's not cheap so i'm 425 times extras or exist this company is an important player in the pet space but it still needs to prove itself so let's put it in the ETF but only with a 6.25% waiting speaking of break ups late last year Eli Lilly spun off its Animal Health Division as Elanco unfortunately stocks basically be dead money since the first trade it's search from 24 to 32 right out of the gate and that's where it stayed problem Lois spun out of the lanka via an IPL which led investors to bit up the stock and it's been digesting those games ever since still I like to company straightforward story you know what we're gonna do we give a 7.5 percent win finally there's Chuy yes Chuy I like to it the old I pet store that we joined this weekend that's right it's not betting the whole industry which exploded higher when it came public on Friday like I told you at the time I adore Chuy the company but ideally yes I would like to wait for the stock to cool off a bit fried forced it that's it it's a lot less expensive than it might seem I say we give it a 12.5 percent allocation although again if you want to buy it you should gradually bottle the way down but I do sanction buying it a little bit right here bottom line the humanization pets has been a fabulous secular growth story one that's really paid off in 2019 and now that we have adjusted our made money pets ETF I bet it can keep going higher hey let's speak to Sarah you know Sarah hi Jim I served you for teaching us how to do the homework mm-hmm recent IPO I bought on belief we all know what they're doing currently so I bought it at 22 my question is should I buy it now on this dip and get my clock down or is that being a you know when I saw the ID look I think that that the company array is a really good company that Pfizer bought but I think that these are all in the and good specs I like that I met management I would endorse it the stock fell during a period when people didn't like these stocks to try to warm up them again I would go for it how about Shane and Pennsylvania Shane hey Jim how's it goin I hope you had a great Father's Day oh I tell you how to do perfect while my kids will wait in that's all I care about how are you yeah I had a good one thanks good so my sock is allergen I've owned the stock for about two years and getting crushed but I'm only 25 I think I still got some some time to go do you think I should buy sell or old I I think that it can fami you hit a 52-week low it'd be a big mistake for me to just tell you to sell it here it doesn't have the growth that I'd like it doesn't have the pipeline that I thought it did we managed to sell it for the child will trust a higher level but it still still hurt us I'm not a Finn let's just put it that way Erica Masters is Eric hey dr.
Kramer big Booya oh thank you a Sun collar my question is about weight fair ticker symbol W right first quarters estimates what showed a 39 percent increase year-over-year on revenue yeah but don't make any money I'm gonna tell you I'm gonna guide you toward RH the old Restoration Hardware we just had guy Friedman on I could have been my boss but back sixty percent of the coming six Oh in the last three years that's why I want to bank with quite the humanization pets is a fabulous long-term growth story and you know I like this chewy I bet the new mid money pets ETF to keep going higher much more made money putting my exclusive with a company that has matched over three million students the company is looking to hire top talent across the collection do not miss my exclusive with just a very uplifting story private player handshake yes glass pants oh I'm sorry class dance then some pundits are saying it's the most difficult Fed meeting the gaming ages I'm calling an easy call I'll explain and all your calls rapid-fire nice is it uck cnbc.com you
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