저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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Fed 6월 회의를 앞두고 금리 인하 기대감이 시장 반등의 핵심 동력이라는 진단이다. 핵심 주장: 증시는 지난 2주간 Fed 인하 기대로 반등했으며, Fed가 최소한 7월 인하의 기초를 깔아야 한다는 입장이다. Fed 성명에 'monitoring', 'vigilance', 'cognizant', 'concern' 같은 표현이 나오기를 원하고, 'patience'는 9월까지 기다린다는 뜻으로 시장에 부정적이라고 본다. 경제 지표: 뉴욕 제조업 지수가 기록적인 월간 하락을 보였다. 제조업은 미국 GDP의 약 12%, 소비는 약 70%라서 소비가 버티는 것이 중요하다고 설명한다. 소매판매는 양호하다는 평가다. 글로벌 변수: 세계 동조 성장은 2018년 1월에 정점을 찍었다는 시각이며, 유럽·일본 등 세계 경기와 환율이 미국 자산에 영향을 준다고 본다. 시나리오: 6월 회의 이후 7월 고용보고서와 G20 회의 등이 변수다. 지표가 약해지면 Fed가 선제적으로 움직일 수 있으며, 50bp 인하 후 추가 인하는 없다는 'Bill Nelson' 시나리오도 소개했다. 주요 종목/자산: 특정 종목의 구체적 목표가 언급은 없고, 시장 전반(증시·금리) 중심으로 논의했다. 리스크: 무역 문제가 해결되지 않았고, Fed가 매파적으로 들리면 시장이 크게 하락할 수 있다고 경고한다. 출연자 전망: 금리 인하 기대가 유지되면 증시 상승이 이어질 것으로 보지만, 'patience' 표현 등 성명 문구에 따라 변동성이 클 것으로 본다.
다듬은 글
begin with the countdown to the Fed beginning its two-day meeting tomorrow amid great expectations that it will at the very least lay the groundwork for an interest rate cut in July stocks rising over the past two weeks on those very hopes Jim Cramer I've made you the chairman of the investment today thank you so much I'm assuming fair I I've made I've given you that title happy to follow is it all about that this is all about the Fed I want to see monitoring vigilance cognizant concerned I get any of those words in the statement bingo the rallies that you don't want to see patients because they're saying that's the word that's going to come out no I need vigilance cognizant concern I don't want patients patients could mean we have wait till September we just won't did you say monitoring also I love monitoring okay because that may be where you get to but I really want moderate so you get big nose it is about this because it's all about that right we get those words than we're fine you get the New York manufacturing read today it posted the largest monthly decline on record now I wonder if that seals the deal well I think you got nuke war I know they don't look they don't look that granular but I think it does matter I think that the rails I've Union Pacific tomorrow this piece Bernstein I thought it was electric in terms of saying the slowdown is here against that we've got a couple of companies that are having good numbers like RH not big enough well that's because manufacturing has been horrible all year long so this shouldn't really be a surprise and you had Mexico and the issues of Mexico so industrial part of the economy not good new orders and all the is M's production across the board inventory is not good on the flip side consumer good no consumers retail sales right so what did you at mean this is like from a business standpoint this is like going cliff diving and hitting the rock you don't even get into the water this was ugly well I mean again manufacturing is 12 percent of u.s.
GDP consumer seventy percent so you want consumer to do fine and they are doing fine and you're running after that retail sales number Jim sue percent GDP so I want moderate a cut or not I think you Stephanie link me to cut or not I think you need language to show that they are considering it once again I just totally agree with her I'm right with patient I mean I would it's better but my works are really good that they're willing to consider after where we were back and you know last year it's a really big amount of progress that they've made so I think that that's a really big deal yes but not out of the woods because we've got to get through trade so yes then train again succeed at the very least that's what the Fed needs to say this week yeah absolutely I mean that's how everybody's waiting for that's what their prime right on hopes and expectations that they're going to do that when you consider everything that's been going on around outside of us and you start looking at the market and these these rallies that we get off of some of these lows and all the rest of it I think a lot of that is triggered by the idea that you know what the Fed is still somewhere there the Fed is there for us and they're looking for a cut and it's about the words what are the words gonna actually be how aggressive will they be will they be as aggressive as you are they going to talk about patience either way I think it explains to us what they're really looking at better not use the word patience or the market is going to not like that don't you think patience means well we'll see I know let's come see these other than that the markets going way up we don't want to talk more than that and we don't want patients we want monitor you soar on anything that's perceived to be hawkish especially you've got to be of the book to you about the BOJ you've got the Bank of England and the concern is the rest of the world what's the rest of the world doing you can make an argument based on where asset prices are right now that the Federal Reserve should do nothing okay but it's the rest of the world it's the notion that synchronized global growth peaked in January of 2018 you make the argument we're in a bear market related to synchronize global growth and what the rest of the world is doing is impacting what's going on with our currency here and that's where you have to have some concern so liceman the big thought is that if they do sort of set the table for a move in July it changes basically the way we need to think about the Fed it becomes a pre-emptive organization rather than more reactive to what current conditions are current conditions as Steph said and as Jim said don't necessarily call for a cut right now like the urgency that some people are feeling so it's really she's been here gyms take because there's still a little bit of wiggle room if they go monitor okay so there are a couple things that happen between the June meeting and the July meeting there's a g20 meeting but there's a July employment report there's a whole nother months worth of data giving us the last month of the quarter and I think if those things begin to show the weakness that's when I think they go and I'm entertaining a new idea here which is the go big or go home cut they go go home so you're looking for fit you know yeah this is a report from Bill Nelson a very good staffer who needs to work you lied you sore has had 50 in July 50/50 and then something's really wrong that I don't know well okay Jim now this is really interesting because I bring this up because I want your opinion on this okay the idea is the Fed does not want to create concern by cutting so the idea Bill Nelson here is cut 50 and tell them we are on a pause that it's not the beginning of a rate cut cycle it's an adjustment to ward off or be or or respond to the weakness and then they say you know what we're on hold for a while here until we see how this works you
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