저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 츄이(Chewy)는 좋은 성장주이나 지금은 비싸니 $30 부근 조정 시 매수를 권한다. [사업 구조] 츄이는 Petsmart에서 분사한 온라인 반려동물 용품 판매사로, 온라인 침투율(2017년 14%, 2020년 25% 전망)이 성장 여지가 크다고 봤다. [성장 동력] 반려동물의 '인간화' 추세로 사료·의료 지출이 늘고, 정기배송(자동 주문) 고객이 전체의 2/3이며 재구매율이 높다고 설명했다. 매출은 2012년 2,600만 달러에서 작년 35억 달러로 급성장했다. [경쟁력] 7개 물류센터로 미국 80%에 익일 배송, 약 1만 명의 24시간 고객 상담 인력이 강점이라고 평가했다. [실적 우려] 1분기 매출 성장률은 약 45%로 전년 68%에서 둔화했고, 아직 흑자 전환 전이며 잉여현금흐름은 마이너스다. [밸류에이션] 시가총액 약 140억 달러, 작년 매출 대비 3.9배. 올해 매출 35% 성장 가정 시 2.9배 수준으로 합리적이라고 봤다. 경쟁사 Petco는 2배 매출 수준이라 츄이 프리미엄은 과하다고 판단했다. $31 수준이면 약 2.5배가 되어 매수 구간이라고 언급했다. [리스크] 모회사 PetSmart가 사모펀드 BC Partners 소유라 지분 매각 위험이 있다고 지적했다. 보안 관련 집단소송 우려에 대해서는 츄이로 교체하는 것이 낫다고 답했다. [종목 언급] 엔비디아는 긍정적으로 언급되었고, 브로드컴은 언급 맥락상 부정적 분위기였다. 자산 예측 발언은 츄이 주가에 대한 중기 상승 관점이다. [출연자 전망] 츄이는 '진짜 제대로 된 기업'이며 장기 보유 가치가 있다고 봤다. 단기로는 조정 후 매수 전략을 권했다.
다듬은 글
this type here market just doesn't know when to quit I think your Wall Street appetite from New Deal's would try after that uber deal came public with a whimper but the ID runners keep finding these small companies with turbocharged growth rates and the market laps them up makes them into not small companies was they get going just look at Chuy C Hwy for your home gamers the one-stop online pet shop that was spun off by Pet Smart today the deal priced above the high end of the range of 22 bucks then the darn thing exploded higher open a 36 then climbing all the way to 41 and change before pulling back and I will be closer to that about 35 still if you got in on the IPO Chuy's give you a magnificent 59% game all right how the heck does that even happen what makes you is so attractive to investors and more important could the stop potentially have more room to run I wouldn't chase the stock at these levels necessarily but the company's doing a lot of things right and might be worth putting on your shopping list if you're willing to be patient and wait for a pullback although I understand if you can't wait because we've had these second and third days of been pretty good for the hot ones the reason is pretty simple Julie's got a great formula let me break it down for you first there as we know anyone who watches the show the humanization of pets theory something we've been talking about for years young Mia bunny Americans increasingly feed their companion animals like members of the family which means we spend more and more and more on their food and healthcare hey this is one of my favorite secular growth teams and remember the dogs start in the basement and they go to your room and then you're in their bed next to you know they got your spot the pet related retail market is a dinosaur it's a highly fragmented industry that maybe let's say 15 years behind the rest of retail in terms of Technology as of 2017 ecommerce only accounted for 14% of the pet food and pet supplies market here was a day of 4% 2015 these numbers have been growing like crazy as the pet space catches up to the rest of retail chewy expects that online penetration will reach 25 percent by 2020 killing you know what I think actually maybe conservative forecast historically people get their pet supplies from the grocery store or super stores or feed stores for some reason the internet didn't take this business by storm at least now chewy has got it all figured out though felt like the Amazon of pet spitting the CEO comes from Amazon he was a big executive there with a broad selection of high quality products at competitive prices more importantly Julie makes the whole process convenient two-thirds of their customers are signed up for auto-ship subscription program it's the easiest way to get pet food the company now has seven fulfillment centers spread across the United States allowing them to offer cost-effective overnight shipping to eighty percent of America with two days shipping for nearly the entire country and the CEO told me today that sometimes their price through Amazon when it comes to delivery however the real differentiator for these guys is the customer service people keep shopping and prick them word of pet stores because they want to make sure that they're giving their cats and dogs the right food and sometimes that means you need to actually talk to another unit so truly is almost ten thousand team members who are on call 24/7 jerseys about this year they're well-trained incredibly friendly and they can give you the kind of advice that you'd normally only be able to get from a high quality pet store I know they're the real deal because when I tweeted about chewy yesterday they sent me these paintings okay first of Invidia all right I think bad day cause of Broadcom you know what I mean and then of Marley who's the dumbest animal life he ate or banisters he had her banisters madam if people responded with their own incredible stories its and forty thousand of these out okay it sounds like every time a customer's dog dies Chuy's sending flowers and especially condolences with a beautiful Hamburg note they don't make you pay for the proof for that month I don't even know what to say that it's genuinely heartwarming and chewy guys I just got the report back from Nvidia that lump on his leg is not cancerous made the day this morning I walk in the street we got a chance to ask some insane he needs to CEO of chewy about is customer centric vision take a look we have ninety percent free ups we have two thirds of our revenue that comes from authorship or subscription program and our customers our customers love engaging with us zoomits right I mean if you look at my Twitter feed you just see these over and over and over again all right now there was a negative story about a dog who ate a snake and ever made about that but forget about that and focus on this okay that formulas clearly working chewy didn't even exist 10 years ago companies found in 2011 as a way to sell dog food online to raise money for animal shelters and we favor those two right these guys are both from kill from kill shelters all right then Chuy's sales took off and now they're the dominant online pet store the growth has been stratospheric with net sales rising from 26 million in 2012 to 3.5 billion last year and two thirds of the sales are from that subscription business I told you they keep reopening 190 percent of the people do renew now once someone starts shopping on chewie they tend to stick with them it's just fabulous retention now we know digital beats brick-and-mortar and julie julie has got digital figured out well again the CEO sumit is from Amazon he's got a figured out like Amazon now that's how the company can deliver such excellent numbers which is the main reason why Wall Street went crazy for the stock in the first quarter Chuy's revenue growth came in it would be 5% well that represents a bit of a deceleration from 68% figure from last year the company's up against the law of large numbers while Chuy's not yet profitable as they've been investing too much in growing the business like Amazon then we are just keep rising which is amazing at this point it's easy to see how they generate positive Bernese that's it free cash flows in the negative territory for now but other than that the financials I really like them if true we were our own independent entity I think I'd be willing to recommend a stock even up here right now right here after today's mammoth run unfortunately it's not an independent and that's the fly in the ointment in 2017 chewy was acquired by pet sport and they still have a controlling interest in the company there are two problems with pet spot once got hideous bouncy and so it's in the thrall of a private equity firm called BC partners luckily chewy isn't on the hook for pets Mart's deaths but it's still a company that may not be in control of its own fate while the convoluted ownership structure isn't a deal breaker for me and I did bring it up this morning on squawking the street I never like it when there's a private equity firm lurking that could crush the stock simply by ringing the register on it's gigantic position so where do I come down on this one I totally understand why investors are losing their minds over chewy IV wooden doing invidious 12 now Jensen Jensen one gave it he has an ID card to get into Nvidia any time you once I put it on his now it's a fantastic company even if it's not perfect but the stock has run so much today I wish we could have gotten a bit of a pullback to slightly more reasonable level what is reasonable what constitutes that okay its current price Julian's I'm working Kappas Asian nearly 14 billion that means the stock is trading at three point nine times last year sales we know Chuy grew at forty five percent clip in the first quarter but let's be conservative and assume that this slows down to thirty five percent for the figure that seems reasonable in that case the stock sell you 2.9 times this year's sales estimates hey you know what you know that actually strikes me is pretty reasonable valuation which means the unrest really will pull this deal well it's ditch fix the subscription-based online a power play it's got a substantially slower growth rate than chewy 29 percent and it's raised in two times sales I think chewy deserves to trade out of premium but just not this much of a premium it's saying if the stock would come down say to like thirty one thirty it would be trading at around two point five times their back to the envelope that sales estimate and those are the levels where I think that you buy the stock until then though maybe you keep it bad on the shoulder be patient I wouldn't don't listen anyone who tries to dismiss the company as a second coming in pets calm that was a failure during the old doc con days it is so much better than that and that's just that is just unfair the bottom line even after today's magnificent run chewy isn't all that expensive company had a great growth store and they have legions of lead of loyal customers still I hate the chase which is why I think you should wait for chewy to pull back say $30 for you to pull the trigger that said I can understand why any satisfied chewing customer but I want to put some away right here right now because they love the company that much my I'm telling me in my own bill Griffeth here and get it in this by the way oh man is that heavy had we named this pack yet this is chewy okay May chewy have a long life in that particular fishbowl with that Worman okay but to speak to Mary Beth in Michigan Mary Beth yeah and Sam hello taking my call of course my husband and I have watched you for years and we are grateful for the information you share and all wisdom you have about to stock market thank you and I also want to give a shout out here's the proof staff they are so great making feel comfortable oh yeah oh yeah I know I be incredible incredible my stack is pet you it was an IPO in 2017 and it was featured on one of your shows back in August or early September 2018 right I bought it for my seven-year-old grandson so that he'd have a stock he can understand what the company did my concern is now it's having some ongoing security claims by many different law firms so I'm wondering if it's fell a hold or sell well you know what I'm gonna do I'm actually gonna suggest and this is and I've looked at this company I don't like those loft they offer investigations but that's not a reason here anyway I think you swap out of that and you get into chewy that's how great I feel about this chewy and worse working to chew it I told my wife we have to switch to jewy because it isn't like anybody else has given us pictures of Marlee and NVIDIA I think this I think chewy is the real deal right it's got a great formulas chewy even if your today's run the eye pill isn't all that expensive sure I'd like you to wait for the pullback and pull the trigger but when you get well you get a cover with a sole maybe just go buy something much more made money head medicare-for-all has put them to come one of the top policy issues for the 2020 presidential race in the Democratic Party where is this year of Centene have to say about it I've got the exclusive then I'll say it welcomes earnings were downright depressing I'm breaking down the numbers and all your calls rapid-fire tonight's edition of the lightning round so stay with flavor [al this something head to Mad Money does cnbc.com booyah Jim Cramer hear from their
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