저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 미국 소매주는 '바벨 경제'로, 고가(럭셔리)와 저가(할인) 소매는 잘 되지만 중간층 소매는 부진하다. 저가 소매: 달러제너럴·달러트리는 관세 우려 속에서도 마진을 방어하며 강세. 달러제너럴 연초 대비 약 26%, 달러트리 약 20% 상승. 고가 소매: 룰루레몬은 분기 실적 상회 및 매출 전망 상향(동일점포 매출 두 자릿수 중반 성장 전망), 디지털 비중 35%, 중국 매장 10~15개 추가 출점 계획. RH(리스토레이션 하드웨어)는 EPS 1.85달러로 컨센서스(1.53달러) 크게 상회, 가이던스 상향, 자사주 매입(분기 220만주, 주당 115달러) 진행하며 주가 15.8% 급등. 중간층 소매: 메이시스, 노드스트롬, 콜스 등 백화점은 실적 부진, 중간층 소비자 이탈로 고전. 월마트·코스트코·타겟: 규모의 경제로 가격 결정력 보유, 모두 강세로 평가. 개별 종목: 알테릭스(AYX)는 80달러대 매수 후 107달러 근처까지 상승, 추가 상승 여지 있다고 봄. 마이크론은 실적 하향 우려로 단기 약세(33달러→31달러 하락 가능성) 언급하면서도 PBR 낮아 매수 기회로 언급. 듀폰·다우 합병은 실망스럽다고 평가, 다우는 유가 연계성이 높아 우려. 출연자 전망: 시장 강세(bull market summer) 기조 유지, 소매 시장 양극화 지속 전망. 리스크: 관세 인상(10%→25%)에 따른 중국 소싱 비용 부담, 항만 혼잡 및 항공 운송 비용 증가, 중간층 소비 둔화.
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l marke creamer welcome have money welcome to America other people in my fence I'm just trying to make some money my job is not just to entertain but educating teachers who call me at one eight hundred seven four three CNBC actually welcome to the barbell economy hey that's my takeaway when I look at the retailers to the reported this earnings season the high-end is working the low-end is working but everything in the middle is struggling we saw this dynamic play out once again today especially with the Dow gained 102 points most of it at the end of the day has to be advanced 0.41% Nasdaq line point five seven percent now consider what's working in retail Dollar Tree Dollar Jim Walmart Costco and target low it as well as RH the former Restoration Harbor and Lululemon on the high end some people call it Lulu the mall and they're wrong let's unpack these dollar general Dollar Tree our bargain basement plays they can do a vast cohort of Americans who are trying to make ends meet now these companies are extraordinarily good at what they do this morning Oppenheimer published a very bullish piece on Dollar General arguing that the chain has some of the best revenue growth momentum around at a time when interest rates are slowly many investors think the economy is getting weaker well guess what this is a defensive holy wheat when retails not so hot right now dollar Jeff hey Dollar Tree has got a similar story with an extra ticker the acquisition of Family Dollar which is finally starting to pay off oh man covers remodeling it's Family Dollar location it's having a big impact on the numbers this was no easy feat I couldn't even bear to enter my nearby Family Dollar I'd much rather go all the way out of the way to a more enticing Dollar Tree I may not be the quintessential dollar store shopper but I love these places I go through sunglasses like there's no tomorrow I lose them I break them I step on them so I just buy five four five five classic looking Ray Ban knockoffs blessed our tree is the mostest alec candy aisle on earth their stores are just playing fine shout out special shout out to the Cal tails family who sent me a big basket fit told him I bought a lot of Cal's at archery well what matters to us is that they're low and weed killers both these stocks were targeted by short sellers because they source a lot of merchandise from China so the tariffs are expected to be pretty painful however Dollar General and Dollar Tree are so fantastic at sourcing that they haven't had to sacrifice their margins that's why both stocks are handily outperform the average right now dollar jetting up 26 percent and nearly 26 ain't Dollar Tree up to 20 percent for the year that's terrific right the low end is in good shape same goes for the high end last night RH Restoration Hardware and Lululemon I gave us a taste of the luxury market and they each reported masterful beat and raise quarters Lululemon's forecasting same store sales growth and low double digits that's amazing and it's all thanks to the company's innovation and it's fabulous execution this conference call is full of praise for sweat and stink they really care about hard work when it comes to workouts Lulu's digital business now accounts for 35% of its sales that's more than double versus last year meanwhile while Wall Street's fretting about the trade war Lu's opening 10 to 15 new stores in China where they are absolutely killing it in fact Lululemon so popular that some of its products seem to have no price resistance people paint just about anything for their ABC Pitts shirt management made reference to port congestion and the need for air freight but it all comes out in the wash and really raise prices and Lulu is exactly the kind of company could afford to piss those higher costs onto you the consumer best of all according to Matt boss terrific retail honest JPMorgan Lulu has a major untapped opportunity to put new locations all over the globe hey listen at a time when other retailers are retrenching closing stores all over the place Lulu can't put up enough stores I like that and then there is orange the high-end home furnishings chain formerly known as Restoration Hardware I can't believe how strong their numbers were its the staggering 15.8% runs the stock today it was only a quarter go that already closed seem to be drying up but you can never count out CEO Gary Freeman the company earned a dollar 85 per share when the analysts were only looking for a buck 53 that's a colossal beat Wall Street is expected rh to make 8 dollars and 30 cents for the floor now Gary's saying he can do eight dollars and seventy six to nine dollars and 27 cents more important Gary who will hear from tomorrow night Mad Money and Gary good luck with the I know your big Golden State Warriors fan we had learned that he can't afford to be complacent because he is what he was very worried about sourcing from China and he understood maybe had to change things up when we pull up with him at his Museum of furnitures I called New York's Meatpacking District a store that he said get this would do comfortably in excess of a hundred million dollars in sales one store he told us he had no choice but to continue doing a huge amount of business in China nobody else can really compete with the Chinese on price or quality explained well that was then this is now when the latest call Gary said that he's moving quote certain production and new product development out of China plus exploring new partnership and expanding our own manufacturing facilities in the u.s.
from stop Trump star he doesn't want to be caught in the tariff crossfire his customers don't seem to mind paying up listen to what he said about Trump's latest terrified quote we have negotiated product costs and selectively raise prices to mitigate the increase of the of the increase from 10 to 25 percent yep those new tariffs already embedded in our aegis guidance something most companies haven't done it has really killed a lot of stocks how certain is Gary of the company's long-term trajectory here's some staggering figures this man bought back 2.2 million shares at $115 a pop just this quarter alone at this point our H is now retired and astounding 66 o percent of its float over the last few years at an average price of sixty one dollars and forty four cents it's like the company's gradually taking self private while other retailers pomona the week's second quarter they didn't put up the numbers gary quoted about it because the stock market bounced back and it's high in business response to stock prices people are more likely to buy fancy furniture when they feel wealthier the action our age just like Lululemon tells you that the rich are doing just fine meanwhile companies in the low end like Costco I know some video I see the Mercedes and the BMW is there but it's still a it's a cheaper place to shop one more you know it's got the pipes it's not it's not luxury looking Walmart Target throw some good shape all three of these companies have the scale to dictate prices even to the Chinese they all representative parking for the consumer they're all working I think they all go higher who's doing badly the middle class of shoppers who buy things from them all these mall stores are falling by the wayside Macy's has missed quarters and then made them but no one seems to care because it's been written off as a hapless mall base department store you know we went to the flagship Herald Square store a recent recently and marveled at the company's ingenuity but it didn't matter Nordstrom missed again hey shocker even the usually reliable Kohl's got rocked the stores that seem to be losing customers buy the polos the stocking bit of this rate but I think Michelle Goss the CEO can turn things around I some people think I'm too optimistic that's the nature of this part of economy if your customers are wealthy you can raise prices and do just fine but everybody else is gravitating toward the low end chains that offer better bargains and that's crushing the vast middle class of the retail industry it's the same reason that Amazon keeps putting up great numbers the bottom line when you look at what's working in retail and what isn't what paints a pretty darn Dickensian picture there's a market for high-end luxury goods and low-end mass-market merchandise but right now there's not much space in between let's go to sip in New York set Jim boo-yeah from Manhattan how are you today great to have a Manhattan I rarely do doing fine how about you rarely doing hey last time we spoke you said you were gonna buy me a drink at Bob events if my Mazur got bought out by Medtronic how about that well okay yeah I owe you one I want good listen I want to talk to you about one of my favorite cloud companies in the world one of my four horsemen Alteryx ticker a YX picked up the stock around $90 a couple weeks ago bought a little bit more on the dip last week at 80 luckily Google bought out an analytics company but even more luckily tableau was acquired by sailrite right now stock moved up almost 27 points from 80 at 107 closed at 102 today do you think this stock has a lot more upside I do I do now it's a right look it's look outs are just a lot like Z scale or it's like Zendesk it's even like octa I mean these are stocks that people don't really understand you do you tend to just go higher and higher I would - either you've got a trade go in there I would take some off but that company's good by the way I want to warn people if you go to WWF calm it follows you everywhere if you fill it if you fill in the stuff like I did because I had them one I mean it's like holy cow that thing follows me everywhere so please out turns could you just stop following me I did it to learn about the stock not to be able to get the product I mean every time I pick up is like did you out sir have you outsource outsource Anthony and Maryland Anthony yeah hi mr.
Kramer thank you so much for dedicating your energy to helping the small investors oh thank you mean that is the game plan that is the game plan we're not just a Miller we're not just here to help that fellow put the thirty gate mill eight million dollar apartment in New York why do you do something like that I mean you know I'm not ask you to living our youth hostel but all right go ahead all right I'm interested in your thoughts on my current technology and you although faces this competition among the chip makers yes following it for a long time it's priced almost 20% below the book value p/e ratio of less than 3.5 well below the group sector and the earnings per share well about that yes here's what's gonna happen comes down big tonight cuz they cut numbers so micron is gonna probably hit which is 33 will probably hit 31 tomorrow and you can buy all you want and you know what maybe you should okay let's go to Gregory in a state that's being decimated by job losses Connecticut Gregory I DuPont since 2000 had about $45 a chair he recently said that the Dow DuPont merger was not a good idea 1y and - should I sell my little upstairs a bit you Dow okay I understand that it was because Dow itself has been very disappointing but the reason why it's been disappointing is it looks like it's more oil linked than I thought your mister Liveris who used to run it always said it wasn't that it turned out to be wrong DuPont by the way has a but has a food division that I think could come up with a superior meatless burger stay tuned alright the stores came into the super haps and the super have nots are the winners and that's a microcosm cousin for the market and maybe even for the country on Mad Money tonight two analyst enter but only one leaves don't miss it epic should at over the fate of cat free holidays but as I always say this is bull market summer and tonight on my one that's emerged in an unassuming space I'll reveal but first the fake beat wars are heating up a myung the major player now that Tyson food says it's getting into the boots and meat game although they would probably say have a plant game stable clamo Booya Jim Cramer here from Mad
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