저자: CathieWood인용및AlRoot · 외국인
요약 보기
Cathie Wood는 AI·로보틱스·에너지저장·블록체인·멀티오믹스 등 5대 혁신플랫폼이 수렴 중이며, 1500~1900년 글로벌 실질GDP 성장률 0.6%에서 산업혁명 이후 125년간 약 3%로 도약한 사례를 근거로 들었다. 로보택시가 AI의 가장 큰 매출원이 될 것이고 자율주행이 인간 안전 임계치를 넘었다고 주장. Al Root는 SpaceX가 2002년 설립 후 재사용 로켓과 Starlink(가입자 1,000만명 이상, 2025년 두 배 성장)로 성장했고, 기업가치가 1년 전 3,500억달러에서 xAI 합병 시 1.3조달러, IPO 시 약 2조달러로 예상된다고 설명. 테슬라·SpaceX·xAI의 칩부터 응용까지 AI 콩글로머리트 구축을 분석.
다듬은 글
There are 14, I mean, 15 different technologies and they're included in the five major innovation or five innovation platforms that are evolving today. So, AI, the chat G GPT moment, really did awaken investors to, you know, something's going on here. So, AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain technology, and multiomic technology.
So, Cathie Wood just said something that a lot of people are sleeping on. She's talking about 15 different technologies converging, right? And the big ones, AI, robotics, energy storage, they're all feeding into each other. Like, that's not just hype. That's actually what's happening. And what got me is when she brought up robo taxis.
Tesla launched in Austin in June, Waymo's moving faster into cities. The competitive dynamic is real. This isn't some distant future thing anymore. Now, and you're right, the the 15 technologies are converging. Two of the biggest trends coming out of this convergence have to do with AI applications.
So, embodied AI, the physical and the digital world coming together. But, here's what I actually believe she's getting at, and this is important. Robo taxis are probably the biggest revenue play for AI outside of the productivity tools we're already using. Think about that. We're already paying for chat GPT, Claude, all these tools, but robo taxis, that's a whole different market.
That's transportation infrastructure. That's the economy. And Cathie's saying we've already crossed the safety threshold with autonomous vehicles, which means the liability question is starting to go away. That's a game changer. So, if we look at autonomous mobility, so robo taxis, that that involves three of the major innovation platforms converging.
So, um autonomous vehicles are robots. Uh they will be electric and they will be powered by AI. So, robotics, energy storage. Yes. And so, if you think about those, those are three different S curves in the world of innovation, slowly, slowly, then all at once. Uh and they're beginning to feed each other.
Uh Tesla launched its uh robotaxi service in uh Austin in June. And we're seeing now a quickening of the pace. Uh Waymo is now moving more quickly into different cities. So, there's a competitive dynamic that uh is is uh going to accelerate the trend towards robotaxis in the United States. And because robotaxis are safer, we've just crossed the human threshold of safety.
Uh and we'll continue to higher than we thought it was? Yeah. That's true. That's true. So, that's one, and we think that's the biggest application of AI from a revenue generation point of view, other than the productivity tools that we're using right now, which using them. Yes, absolutely. And and we're paying for them.
And uh we're going to pay more and more because they are uh that useful. Anyway, so the great acceleration, if you look, you'll find a GDP chart, and it's bro the the timeline is broken down by tech breakthroughs, you know, tech revolutions. So, if you look uh in the years from 1500 to 1900, nothing much changed.
And uh as best as as um Brett could ascertain with, you know, consulting academia and so forth, global real GDP growth in that time period was about 0.6%. So, very slow. Um and then we have uh really the Industrial Revolution. First the railroads and then building on the railroads, we had telephone, electricity, and the internal combustion engine.
And uh we had then a step function increase in growth to 3% real GDP growth globally um for 125 years on average with China joining in at the end. Now, what really stood out to me was when she pulled up that GDP chart. From 1500 to 1900, nothing changed. Real GDP growth was like 0.6% globally. Then the Industrial Revolution hits, railroads, electricity, the internal combustion engine.
Suddenly you're at 3% real GDP growth for 125 years straight. She's connecting the dots here. The AI Revolution, the Robotics Revolution, energy storage. These are S curves that are just beginning to feed each other. We're at the slowly, slowly part right now, but the then all at once part, that's coming.
So, here's what I'm taking away from this. Cathie Wood isn't being reckless when she talks about this convergence changing everything. She's looking at actual historical patterns of how technology moves the needle on GDP, on economies, on human productivity. And if you map that onto what's happening right now with Tesla, Waymo, Nvidia, and the whole AI infrastructure play, you start to see why the money is flowing where it is.
The question isn't whether the robotaxis happen, the question is when and who captures the value. And because these technologies are converging, AI plus robotics plus energy storage, the companies that are positioned across multiple platforms win big. That's why Nvidia matters. That's why Tesla matters.
That's why the stocks in this space aren't just bets on one technology, they're bets on convergence. And historically, convergence is when you get those step function jumps in economic growth. That's the real play here. SpaceX could be on the verge of the biggest IPO in history, but investors are watching more than the market debut.
It's Elon Musk's next big bet to build a dominant force in artificial intelligence, not on Earth, but in space. Think data centers in orbit powering the next generation of AI. Al Root wrote this week's cover story on it, and he's here with us. Al. I am. You've actually been here all day, but anyway, um I always thought of SpaceX as a as a rocket company, right?
And then in recent months I've seen it's a lot more than that. Yeah, no, it's a disruptive force in AI. Uh no, it is much more than a rocket company. So, company founded in 2002, uh pioneering reusable rockets because Elon Musk thought it was stupid to throw away the rocket after just one use. Um and and then uh what reusable rockets enabled was much lower cost to to reach space.
And that is sort of the secret sauce cuz that enables applications. Their their biggest application currently is Starlink, uh space-based broadband. They have more than 10 million subscribers. Uh subscribers in 2025 uh doubled. So, very high growth. Um and then so now they're moving into AI. So, yes, they're a rocket company, but they're just sort of uh using that cost advantage to create applications everywhere.
Uh and it's doing pretty well. Uh private equity investors who got in a year or so ago have seen monstrous returns. Yeah, just in just for a scale, right? A year ago it was worth $350 billion. Not too bad. Uh when it merged with XAI earlier this year, it was valued at $1.3 trillion. Uh the IPO is probably going to come out at about $2 trillion.
So, we're up like 1.6, 1.7 trillion in a year. Uh so, it is unbelievable the pace of change, and what really enabled that value uh was AI. So, help us understand. Uh these are all great applications. Why is it so so Elon Musk to merge them into one company. Well, I am a big I think that convergence it's not just a sci-fi idea that eventually Tesla and SpaceX will be under one company.
They're working together closely. They're building chips together. xAI and SpaceX are already together. And what you're really doing if you're Elon is you're building an AI conglomerate that goes all the way from chips to applications. Whether those applications are chatbots or self-driving cars. And so there's some scale synergies, there's some cost synergies.
And I just think that he views AI as sort of as AI arms race and he this is the way he sees to dominate.
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