저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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let's talk markets uh and the FED now with Ed yard Deni president of yard Deni research and we've been talking about a Nick timo's piece uh Ed about whether we do get Cuts this year I we're on I think about two weeks ago and I I think at that point you weren't completely sure either about how many or when they come if we've seen a couple of inflation data points since then what what's your latest on that we see something in June or July or June or July yeah I've yeah Joe I've been in the uh fewer and later camp on the federal funds rate cutting um I never really understood at the beginning of the year why the market seemed to be thinking five six seven Cuts I was thinking that uh we should just stick with what fed officials were talking about which was two to three uh but over the past few weeks I've had my my doubts about two to three not just uh this past week when we saw hotter than the expected inflation it just the economy is doing quite well and inflation I think is still moderating so my Mantra is why mess with success uh there's really no need for the FED to to to lower interest rates so I I think Fed chair Powell and his one day Wednesday presser is going to be a a touch more hawkish than he had been recently for example at Congressional testimony where's the strength in the economy coming from Ed that and it it was somewhat unexpected and where are there beginning to see some signs of some weakness well I think uh the main focus always has to be on the consumer consumers account for 70 75% of uh the economy's activities and I think that's where we seen the strength and uh clearly a lot of that has to do with the labor markets uh you you don't get a recession when employment's at an all-time record high you don't get a recession when within that you've got construction employment at an all-time record high Healthcare employment alltime record hard high and so on and so forth there's there's a lot of strength in the labor market and we keep watching those initial unemployment claims every Thursday and they just continue to hover just north of 200,000 which uh is consistent with an unemployment rate below 4% so I think that's where it is first and foremost uh weakness uh there a lot of talk obviously about commercial real estate and uh that could present itself over the next couple of years because as things get refinanced uh but even there there's some signs that it's just not just across the board weakness uh there are some areas of strength W within that so and and even real commercial real estate prices may be starting to bottom so it doesn't look all that bad is any of this residual stimulus or or fiscal spending or or the fed's balance any of the things that that that we've talked about uh in the past ever since the Cong ever since Congress flipped there hasn't been any new legis has there been anything I don't we barely can uh can keep the government open but is this chips act inflation reduction act infrastructure is any of that playing into this absolutely um because that's another area of strength is capital spending and public spendings we have seen a tremendous amount of un shuring activity which we seen in manufacturing facilities production uh so that's been strong I think it remains strong uh and then once they finish building the facilities they're going to have to put in a lot of equipment robotics Automation and even labor so I I think that's an area of strength and then public infrastructure there's still a lot of money being committed to uh roads and bridges and so on and that that's is likely to continue so yeah that's that stimulus is still there and and by the way while we're all looking at the government's outlays on interest income going up and worrying about it in the short term it is an outlay and it is stimulative there's a lot of people uh who live on fixed income um assets and they are actually doing extremely well without taking a lot of Risk by keeping their money in Money Market funds or even some deposits that are paying more I guess the infrastructure bill was bipartisan and the chips Act was bipartison the IRA was not but uh it this present a problem for republicans that to who have uh you know criticized all that spending so are are in your view it's working at this point and I mean we do have a big we have 34 trillion to worry about in terms of of all the debt we've built up but is it working near term why don't we do more of it then and that that seems like a terrible lesson that we're learning yeah I mean that's uh so-called modern monetary Theory idea that uh the government can spend uh without limit because uh it prints its own money and uh and and and lots of people overseas in in the United States are willing to finance the the deficit no I think it's a dangerous road to go down I I think we've gone down quite a bit uh in in that regard uh the the main problem clearly is at some point the bond market might very well care about uh all the supply of Securities it gave us a hint to that remember Joe uh Last Summer August September October we saw the bond yields soar from 4 and a qu% to 5% uh so you know my my friends the bond vigiles seem to have gone into a little siesta mode here but they are starting to wake up a little bit I mean 4.3% on the on the tenure you know that's the risk if we get a situation where people worry about inflation again in the bond if they worry about it in the bond market uh again uh and they decide that the auctions are too large then we'll have a problem again all all with with possible rate Cuts coming which doesn't make any sense doesn't make any sense I mean you know you can't have a situation where the the the FED goes from you know stepping on the brakes not the pat you know tapping on the brakes but slamming on the brakes to suddenly stepping on the accelerator uh and then combine that with ongoing fiscal stimulus so that the fiscal authorities are stepping on the accelerator that's not a healthy thing that's why I'm not rooting for rate Cuts I think the economy is doing just fine with this level of interest rates leave it alone
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