저자: Ignas · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론(MU)은 최근 실적에서 매출·EPS 모두 컨센서스를 상회했고 데이터센터 수요 전망도 긍정적이다. PER은 약 14로 2년 전보다 낮아졌고 배당은 두 배로 늘었으나 지속성은 불투명하다. 애널리스트 목표가 평균은 약 22~30% 상승을 시사하지만, 슈퍼투자자와 내부자는 순매도 중이다. 기술적으로는 50일선 위에서 등락 중이라 조정 시 81달러 부근 매수를 고려한다는 입장이다. 발언자는 본인 포트폴리오에는 현재 MU를 보유하지 않는다고 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
what is up guys my name is ignas welcome back to the channel today i would like to bring up mikron technology to core symbol mu it is a semiconductor name focused on computer memory and data storage products though the stock has been all over the place recently on the year to date it is down for six point twenty six percent going from over ninety five dollars per share to the loss of seventy nine dollars for twenty twenty two but if we take the last six months the performance was quite decent going from seven to one dollar to ninety dollars per share which means it is up for twenty six point fifty seven percent now one year's performance is again worse as the stock is pretty much flat up two point three percent but zooming out to five years it seems to again have been great up to 184.41 even after that run in 2020 price earnings looks to be decent at 13.88 and they have recently started paying a dividend which is now at a yield of 0.45 percent so for today's analysis we will be taking a look into the most recent earnings report then fundamentals and financial ratios after that what analysts think about the stock then we'll check if any super investors are holding it and lastly we should be buying it with regards to the technicals i hope this will be an interesting one to look into so let's start so the last quarter was reported on december 20 of 2021 and mikron's stock rallies has strong data centers sales drive outlook and earnings so on top line mikron reported 7.69 billion dollars almost a 2 billion dollar increase from the same quarter of last year and they did beat alice expectations where that was at 7.68 billion dollars now for the bottom line they brought in two dollars and sixteen cents per share which is almost a free x increase from last year at 78 cents and that also beat analysts expectations by six cents where they had forecasted adjusted earnings of and 10 cents per share so far so good both top and bottom lines had huge increases beating analysts expectations and 2022 expectations look decent where mikron's chief executive says so as the supply chain short disease during the course of 2022 that will be a tailwind for demand for us for memory and storage products and we expect calendar year 2020 to be a strong year for data center demand but let us go further out and check how mikron was performing in the last five years so these are the five year revenue history back in 2016 they were bringing in 13 billion dollars on the trillion-dollar moms then for 2017 it was almost doubled at 23 billion it topped in 2018 at 31.5 billion dollars but then we did have a decline by the end of 2019.
there were a few quarters with just 5 billion dollars in revenue so for the trailing 12 months they had it at 20.64 billion but in 2020 it started picking up steam and revenue increased to 22 billion dollars and then adding a few more great quarters we're now at 29.6 billion dollars on the trillion 12 months so mikron did have better revenues back in 2018 but we are now moving higher from that 2019 slump and quarter after quarter they have been on a consistent increase now let us take price turning so five years so back in 2016 we had earnings in the negative so price turns at zero then in 2017 the price 2xed but there was a huge increase in earnings so the price earnings was at 6.57 as earnings doubled by the price remained flat price earnings decreased to 3.17 then we had that revenue slump which also seems to have led into a decrease in earnings so p ratio increased to 15.14 then for 2020 earnings remained and with the price soaring price earnings went to 24.12 and it did peak in the beginning of 2021 where the price was at over 90 dollars per share with the p ratio of 32.48 now with the latest quarter added the price pretty much went sideways but earnings increased by quite a lot so the price earnings went lower to just under 14.
now price turnings at 14 doesn't seem that bad and for almost two years we had it at around or over 20 but then again if we go four years back we had the p ratio at under 4 for a year and then at around 6 for another so the multiple did go lower by the second part of 2021 but we could have gotten it at a way better price back in 2018 or 2019.
now next part will be the shares outstanding so back in 2016 it was at 1.091 billion then in a year it was up over 12 to 1.2 billion shares in 2018 we were down for four percent to 1.17 billion and then we just kept on going sideways in 2019 we were at 1.1 billion shares then 2021.13 and now for the last quarter of 2021 it was still at 1.13 billion shares so there was a small decrease in the shares outstanding starting with 2018 and then decreasing it by almost 10 percent for 2019 but that doesn't seem to be suggesting the whole picture so this is the shares used for dating to 2006 as we can find they have been introducing new shares and then buying some of those back in a year or two followed by even more shares in so it seems that the number of shares outstanding haven't changed much starting from 2014 and if we take an even longer time period then this move is clearly in an uptrend because we did have it at under 0.8 billion shares and we are now around 40 percent up at 1.14 billion we can check on the dividends too though there is not much information to go around one quarter it was 10 cents per share and the next one did double it at 20 cents so with the price being at 71 dollar the yield was at point 14 and even with the price surging to 93 dollars as the payout doubled the yield also went higher to 0.21 if let's say the payout keeps getting doubled every quarter and the price just kept on going sideways then we will be getting a huge dividend yield soon but i really doubt that the payout increases may keep this pace up so the best we may expect out of it is a moderate increase on the dividend yield now let us take a look into analysts expectations where do they think the stock should be in exactly one year here we have results for 35 price targets for micron technology they range from the lows of 58 dollars to the highs of 165 dollars per share the average is at 109.46 cents and currently the stock is trading at 89.76 this means that analysts expect that in one year the price should go up by 21.9 percent but let's also take another angle so these are here earnings per share expectations for next year and on average analysts estimate that they will be bringing in 11 dollars and 64 cents so if the price earnings ratio remains the same for next year this would lead to an increase in the share price of 29.8 percent so overall from dallas expectations we could estimate that the share price is expected to increase from 22 to 30 percent next year now we know that analysts are quite bullish but what about super investors are they buying or selling out here we have 10 portfolios who are holding micron it seems that two of those has added recently four of the portfolios keeps on holding but four of those 10 are reducing on their positions let's look into ads first so malware capital did an addition of 206 percent meaning that they added over 57 000 shares which at the current price of around 90 dollars per share would be an addition of capital of 5.16 million dollars and then another fan of the stock is monash pabrae where he had at almost two percent onto his position of 1.58 million shares so he added around 32 000 shares which at the price of 90 dollars per share would be at 2.8 million dollars but now there is a larger problem with the sellers for example apolousa management reduced their position by 51 percent and are now holding 2 million 750 000 shares so this suggests that they reduced their position by a similar amount which would come in at the quarter of a billion dollars and biopo's group would be even worse as they reduced the position by 55 percent so it means they did reduce their position by a similar amount which at the current price of 90 dollars would come in as a reduction of around 300 million dollars and insider activity doesn't also help on that because in the last six months there haven't been reported any buying transactions but there were 13 transactions to sell which total at 25.4 million us dollars so overall both super investors and insiders are sellers of the stock and there is not that much buying activity to compensate it out now currently i'm also not holding mikron on the public key torah portfolio though we did have some profit off fit in 2021 where back in october we started a position of 100 at an opening price of 68.80 and then in november we closed it at 74.52 cents for a profit here of 8.31 but could we consider buying into mikron right now at least for a trade let's take a look into the price chart so this is here the trade that we did opened in october and closed in november and after that the price just kept on going higher it reached the highest somewhere in january at around 97 dollars per share then by the end of january crashed under 100 200 and 300 moving averages to the lows of 75.52 but we recently bounced back over the 50 moving average at just under 90 dollars per share so it looks to me that we could wait for the price to go back under the 50d moving average and consider the remaining moving averages to give any kind of a support starting with at least 81 dollar per share now since we have all the information in let's do a quick recap so in the most recent quarter they did beat ali's expectations on both top and bottom lines with higher revenues and earnings year over year now there was a slump in revenues in 2019 but from that point onwards they were on a consistent increase unfortunately though the price earnings ratio decreased a bit it's still now expensive compared to where it was three four years ago number of shares outstanding has been going sideways in the last five years but if we do take a longer time period then it was in a continuous uptrend for the last quarter they did 2x on the dividend payout but unfortunately there is no history on such increases and it's very unlikely to keep on happening consistently analysts though are quite bullish as they predict that in one year the share price should be trading higher from 22 to 40 percent but super investors and insiders are not sharing that same optimism as overall they keep on selling out of the name looking into the price chart i wouldn't want to buy right now as we did just search recently with the price now hovering at over the 50-day moving average but if we do get a slowdown in the dip i would consider starting a position at around 81 per share so that was it for today make sure to support the channel and leave a thumbs up under the video what do you think is micron technology a worthy pick right now share your stance on the name in a comment below if you would be interested to know exactly when i buy or sell any stock then consider memberships by becoming a member you will get access to discord where i share my stock watch list and all the buys and sells exactly when i do them this could be a great option to track my moves closely last week i did an analysis on a semiconductor company from tijuana so if you would be interested in that then click on a video that is currently on the screen and that was it from my site thank you for watching and i will be seeing y'all in the next one you
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