저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
장기 낙관론을 강조하며 미디어의 부정 편향을 비판하고, 가치와 가격의 차이를 설명한다. 2003년 Bharti 투자 사례를 들어 저평가된 가치를 보고 25루피대에 매수해 1200루피까지 보유·추가매수한 경험을 공유한다. 전쟁 중에도 미국 시가총액이 22% 상승한 점을 근거로 든다.
다듬은 글
What qualities matter the most as a long-term investor because you're a perennial bull. Yeah. So, you have to be optimist. Mhm. You have to look things. Sad thing is the media is completely focused on negatives. They will twist even the positive they'll twist it negative. I don't know what pleasure they get in presenting it that way.
You know, they they cannot call a bull a bull, you know. So that's the problem with the media and not only Indian media world over. Okay. So optimist. Yeah. Uh so being optimist because lot more good things are happening while bad things are also happening. The media reports the bad things. So you have to be able to balance
that world is actually becoming rich while there are three wars are on. Hamas happened. Ukraine is on. Iran is on. I mean world has three major wars and yet look at the market cap as US markets are up by 22% in last one year. Yeah, you know 22% means what we are talking about uh something like 65 trillion going to 80 trillion 15 trillion dollars half the GDP of the country has been built in just last 12 months
and yet we are in the wars. Yeah. So nobody talks about that portion of it. So you have to be optimist. I mean you have to find your logic for being optimistic. But uh you have to be optimist and uh second is you have to you have to also understand the value and price equation. The world knows the prices.
Nobody knows value. So price is what you pay. Value is value is what you get. So but why I say read balance sheet because that will allow you to know the company and at some point of time you'll be able to figure out which companies in related terms which company is better than other. So then you can in your mind if you read five companies then you can say okay these five companies are 1 2 3 4 5 is the valuation also like that valuation will be misaligned.
Okay markets are not that smart particularly at early stage. Fair. So then that's where your opportunity comes. So this uh saying of price is what you get and uh price is what you pay and value is what you get. It sounds very simple. Can you put it down in maybe a real life example of when you read into both the metrics matching up to each other or not and that's when you realized how important it is value as well.
No somehow it was always my head that I couldn't put it the way Buffett has put it. This is Buffett's code. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. Yeah. So if you could translate that into a real example of say a company that you assessed or a stock that you assessed. So I'll tell you say let's talk about uh Bharti in 2003.
Yeah. Okay. So I read a book uh I read a book or paper of economics of uh network businesses. Okay. So that time network business so network business the beauty of network businesses which started with the internet basically. uh before that was a telecom businesses where you you build a network of subscribers.
So the network business the funny part is winner takes it all. So the guy who builds the biggest network he wins it after that second guy whatever he does it is very tough to break the advantage of the big network. So what happens is the number one guy makes 90% of the profits. So if there is a $100 billion to be made, $90 billion will be made by the first guy.
$10 billion will be made by second guy and third guy will be perennial loss perennially. You can go and see in telecom companies worldwide particularly in America. Okay, this I read in 96 97 98. Now comes 2002 and IPO of Bharti. Now you can see the opportunity size in India. We didn't have telephones.
I told you about 87. Yeah. and 87 2002 was no different. There were no telephones and so the India needed telephones like mad but we couldn't lay the enough cables even if government wanted to it took but this was effortless you switch on a exchange and suddenly you can give to millions of guys effortlessly.
So what happened there was a literally revolution of connectivity you not see in the world without telephone. So in 2002 when they came with the public issue they came at 45 bucks okay but they were making losses so our understanding was very limited by you if you're making losses you're you're of no value so actually I recommended so many fund managers to sell at 45 we beat it down to 18 17 19 bucks okay of that everything is not because of me but definitely 45 to 43 is because of me I made so many people L then at 1819 on 23rd January 2003
con call of the company they said we are broken even and now from here onwards we'll make money I calculated that in next 5 years these guys are going to make anywhere between 25 to 30,000 crores you calculated I calculated the stock has value for 5,000 crores 2,000 crores equity 20 25 rupees was the price so 4 to 5,000 crores you could buy the entire company which was going to make 25,000 crores in next 5 years what do you do you knowing the price is there for everybody you could buy sell as much you wanted
you could buy 1,000 crores worth I had some money I bought one lakh 25,000 shares at 25 now I go and explain to the guys nobody understand because nobody's read the book I was way ahead of time at that point of time now it is not that Easy. Correct. So at that point of time, so when I bought at one uh one at by by the time it was 30,
it happened in 15 20 days a month maybe one or two months. It went from 25 to 30. Everybody made me sell. So I sold one lakh share. So 25,000 shares. I said this is profit. I'm not going to sell. That time very long-term thinking was listen to everybody. You have to listen. They're all friends. So then the stock went to uh then stock went to 3540.
I said nobody understands. I piled on 10x. I bought a million share stock went to 90 in say five six months a year. At 90 my fund my analyst left and went to Reliance. From there he tells me Ramde G they will crush Bharti you sell. Oh the might of Jio and all. I sold stock went to 140. I said this joker also doesn't know.
So then then I again went 3 4x because I had already sold half. Again I rebuilt. Maybe I had one and a half million or 2 million shares. It went to 1200. This all happened in 3 years time. Yeah. So knowing what knowing the value, I was not chasing the price. I was chasing the value. Price was chasing the value.
So the best thing to happen in life is that you know the value so much ahead of time that price will keep chasing it and value will keep changing. No, that's incredible. Knowing the value ahead of time and you've proved that example with Bharati. If only that analyst hadn't called you up, maybe things would have been even more difficult.
No, no, it's okay. This these the things these events will happen. Absolutely. But you have to have your conviction. See correct. You you get conviction and then you don't act. I saw Bharti at 20 and I didn't buy. See that is why they say it's also an emotional game, right? You can have the intellect, you can have the knowledge, you can have the information, but acting upon it is emotional portion.
Can you tell me about how that plays a big role? No. So I think sizing of the bet is important in the sense that if you have at that time I must have had which year I'm talking about 2003. So I had about 10 crores. So of the 10 crores uh the whole game was 2 and a half%. This is I don't know which book I read but 2 and a half% is a good way to start.
Okay. So that's uh you know something like uh 25 lakhs. So you can buy one lakh share, one and a half lakh share something like that. So I always put two and a half% as a first bet on any stock when I get it. So if I have 10 course then also I put two and a half. Then I have th000 course then also I put two and a half.
But you were being greedy when others were being fearful which is a difficult thing to do in actual practice isn't it? So no I I was not that greedy in the sense that well at least you had conviction. I had conviction. I never do anything without conviction and conviction could be wrong. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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