저자: 미상 · 외국인
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AI 주도 증시 신고가 속 비트코인은 75K 부근에서 부진. 1.29조 원 규모 IBIT 블록매도 등 기관 매도 이슈가 있었으나 시장 흡수가 양호하다고 주장. 장기적으로 기관 수요·규제 명확화(CLARITY Act)·금 대체 수요로 상승 전망. Cathie Wood 인용 기준 bull case 125만 달러, base case 75만 달러(5년). 알트코인 도미넌스 9월 골든크로스 가능성 언급, 알트코인은 대체로 복권 성격이라 평가.
다듬은 글
All right, Altcoin Daily update, let's go. We do think there is Look at Kathy. asset allocation shift beginning Something truly weird is going on in Bitcoin today. As the stock market, led by AI, continues to make all-time high after We're the only ones not participating in this rally. It's the most frustrating thing, right?
But stay strong, hold firm, right? It's a question of when, not if. Bitcoin software, AI nuked software. We need time to coexist with AI and just kind of marinate with relax so that the market could kind of see, okay, AI is going to coexist with Bitcoin and prove Bitcoin and not kill it. All-time high, Bitcoin takes a tumble.
75K. Stop. You won't believe Stop. what we're discovering about who is really behind this. Who? A dark pool of large capital is selling their Bitcoin via BlackRock. So, why are large pools of capital selling? Why is Bitcoin underperforming, especially with so many tailwinds seemingly ahead of us? A lot of people originally thought there was a rotation of ownership, and that could still be true, but it seems to be less likely because it would have been completed by now.
So, Very active incoming, treasury companies buying, war in Iran winding down, new pro-crypto Fed chair, midterms in November, stocks at all-time highs, real estate at all-time highs, AI companies going parabolic, make it make sense. It doesn't. We're the only ones on the sidelines. We're like in timeout.
Everyone's running around having a good time. This is what we do at Altcoin Daily. Subscribe to our channel Teach us. largest crypto community in the world. Let's find out more about the dark pool of capital selling via BlackRock. Uh-oh. Is it Larry Fink? Is it Michael Saylor? Is it somebody connected high up?
1.3 billion dark pool dump shakes the Bitcoin market. A massive 1.29 billion dark pool block trade. This basically means OTC trade hit BlackRock's IBIT this morning, 10:30 a.m. Market traders are calling this one of the largest, if not the largest, institutional Bitcoin ETF dump ever recorded. Not a bad thing though, because it has liquidity in the market, right?
If you could sell a massive amount, it proves Bitcoin market is liquid enough to buy and to sell large amounts of money. In the scale of these like financial institutions, 1.29 billion is kind of nothing, right? It's not that much, cuz these guys manage trillions. The sale of the Bitcoin coincided with the large red candle.
So, we know this dark pool of capital caused the price to dump. So, who is behind this dark pool of capital? Why is this happening? What the heck is going on? It's it's tough. It's tough. Hang in there, boys. Hang in there. We will get out of this. important to note that despite the huge amount of Bitcoin being sold right now, Bitcoin price is holding up surprisingly well.
Right, it proves liquidity in the market. It's not a bad thing actually. We like Bitcoin is still a baby. It's just started to get on its two feet and walk, and everyone's like pissed that it's not off to the races. These other companies will have corrections. You're going to see Bitcoin up into the right long term.
Just hang in there. Even Eric Balchunas, the senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg, Eric's a good one to follow if you're not following. Let's see what he's saying now. tweets, "The market is absorbing it well." And to go even further, the market has been absorbing a lot of sell pressure really well since
Hungry apes are just burning through, right? There's not enough BTC to go around. Once that hits the zeitgeist, once that is diffused, that opinion, this this is going higher. October 10th. Since October 10th, a lot of people consider this the date of 2025, the start of this bear market, 4.45 million Bitcoin has been distributed on chain from these cost basis cohorts.
A lot of Bitcoin has been absorbed by new buyers and the market is holding up well and we are still at 75k. Like yeah, you got a lot of new buyers coming in, right? We got to look at the big picture. You know, Bitcoin always does whatever one the opposite of whatever one thinks. This bear market has been particularly tough because we had, you know, all-time high 500,000 million-dollar, two million-dollar Bitcoin predictions and we're at 74.
So, it's been a tougher one, but let's see. Let's see how this plays out, right? Life We got a lot of life ahead of us. Like I said, We're young. There's something really weird going on right now. Let me share with you some information that might change your mind on what comes next for Bitcoin. First of all, this.
Bitfinex whales are positioned massively long, surprisingly, on Bitcoin. Meaning the smartest money on the most professional exchange is loading up or betting prices go up. At the same time, Bitcoin, although price is down today at 75k, key market structure has not been broken. In fact, support has just been back-tested successfully.
This is a textbook continuation setup, especially with the Ah, it's astrology for men, these charting things. I mean, it's interesting to look at. I I I do follow, you know, but it is astrology for men, right? Uh like like just zoom out. Zoom out. Big picture here, boys and girls. You know, we got BlackRock with the ETFs.
We got potentially talks of the uh what is it called? The strategic reserve. You know, big picture, we're looking healthy. We're looking good. They They just sold a ton of Bitcoin. Price didn't really move that much. Hungry apes ate it all up. Like we I think long-term we are on the right track. We are doing well, right?
The the price moving up and down is just us building consensus over time. Nothing more, nothing crazy. Stock markets, Russell 2000, this is small caps in the S&P 500 already in expansion. Yeah. Bitcoin is likely I would agree. It is institutions as one of three big demand verticals that are going to take Bitcoin to its next level.
The host of Fox Business was surprised to hear her bull case for Bitcoin over the next 5 years is still 1,250,000. Her base case for Bitcoin 5 years from now is 750,000. What's going to If we get to that price, um there's going to be so much feelings hurt. It's going to be epic. Like it will be epic.
I mean so this is what's like why it's called an asymmetric bet because the upside is just so much bigger than the downside. What's the downside? Zero. It can't go below zero. So the upside is is, you know, vertical, moon, Pluto, outer sphere, stratosphere, like that kind of stuff, you know? You want to be an astronaut prices.
Well, it's a substitution for gold. There's a generational wealth transfer going on right now. Bitcoin is an emerging market insurance policy. The stablecoin adoption is going to shift to crypto adoption and massive institutional adoption will occur. Your most recent call for Bitcoin to be worth 1,250,000 over the next 5 years.
I got to be honest, has even some Bitcoin bulls thinking it might be too aggressive. So walk us through this. Sure. Well, the way we get to that number. Now, that is our bull case. Our base case is closer to 750,000. But the bull case involves a substitution for gold. So as generational wealth transfer takes place, we think uh we think that younger people are more prone to uh adopting a digital store of value.
So, that would be Bitcoin. Cathy has got her like she's just got her hand on the pulse of the public, on the youth, right? She just gets it at a core level. That's why she's throwing these price predictions out because it's hard for people to understand that a fixed supply asset, when hit against unlimited dollars, can really just go parabolic.
She gets it. She's just throwing these price targets out. I'm like, "Damn, yeah, let's go. Let's go. Send it." Uh it's an insurance policy. Bitcoin is an insurance policy, particularly in emerging markets against uh you know, fiscal and monetary neglect uh at best or or corruption at worst. And so, Right.
And people don't realize this either is that in Latin American countries, just as a prime example, they don't have a stable currency to run into. Like, where do you go, right? You made Let's say you made 20 grand, you know, one month. You had a lucky month. Where do you save it? Where do you store it?
The banks are corrupt. The currency is poorly managed. You can't put gold bars in the house. That just makes your house a target. You know, you really are They're all going to funnel into Bitcoin one way or another. And these people are smart, right? Because they want to keep their wealth. So, a huge big buyer is in Africa and South America.
Uh as wealth increases around the world, we think that uh individuals will shift from stablecoins, and that's been a very interesting development, uh to Bitcoin, which has much more appreciation potential. But, the biggest The biggest reason is institutional adoption. That is the biggest. This is a new asset class.
It has very low correlation uh to other asset classes in terms of risks and returns. Uh and so, every asset allocator has a responsibility to examine it because it will increase risk-adjusted returns over time. And by the way, Agreed. She's totally right. And the institutions coming in provide a baseline level of demand, right?
Even if they don't believe and they put in 0.5%. 0.5% of the some of these pools of capital, 100 trillion, 20 trillion, you know, that alone would send Bitcoin into the order of magnitude of the 500, 600, 700,000 dollar range. It does not take a large percent of because the pools of capital are so big, right?
You could get like a little baby percent of 0.2. Now, if you start getting into the 3%, 70%, they get a little crazy, they know they're feeling themselves, and they do like a 10%. Then you're you're you're you're getting to these price predictions that would be unimaginable, truly. The bull case is contingent on the Clarity Act passing.
You talk about these large institutions coming into the marketplace for Bitcoin, crypto, also doing things on the blockchain, will they demand more regulation? Yes. I think the genius act and soon, hopefully, the Claria Clarity Act will set the stage appropriately for this space to flourish. And for institutions, especially clarity, I mean, the administration wants it done by July 4th, our 250th birthday, but I don't know if we'll get there.
I think once we do, because the odds have gone up recently that it will be passed, that we will see much more of an institutional swoosh into the space. But, large pools of capital want to move into a regulated garden, right? They don't want to go into the jungle cuz they're trying to get a return, but more importantly, in a guarded, safe fashion.
They don't want to lose trillions of dollars because some exchange blew up because the guy was running it from Bahamas. Like, that is not going to happen. They want clear rules of the road. They want punishments. They want, you know, the ability to investigate. They want to know whose regulator they they want to know all of these things.
We will never have massive price movement on Bitcoin without clear rules from the government, right? That that's just not going to happen. It's not a cyberpunk thing anymore. Cat's out of the bag. It's got to be a regulated asset like all the others. All the selling that's going on right now is being sold to the institutional Wall Street class.
like that. This is a very strong class of buyers coming in. Do you think that They have reason to be bullish on Bitcoin, which at this point might be the counter narrative. You basically Bitcoin monthly RSI is at bear market bottom levels, yet super trend is still long. This has never happened in any previous cycle, i.e.
it is different this time. Since the Iran war started in early March, Bitcoin hasn't broken, held steady through conflict, sanctions, and closed shipping lanes. In fact, if May ends bullish, and May is about to end soon, so we'll just have to wait and see. That has never happened in a Bitcoin bear market before.
Five day Not sure if the astrology for men's working, but I I you know, it's interesting. days left to close, this could indicate maybe this time is different. Maybe Bitcoin isn't in a cycle bear market like before. Altcoins are getting close, my friends. Altcoins are getting close. Altcoins are cooked.
They're They're just pet projects. Like, everyone's got to get over that. Ethereum, yeah, and Solana does have some value, right? Because we're going to create applications on top to move Bitcoin and other stable coins around them. But, you know, all altcoins in general in general are lotto tickets.
Alt season incoming. Altcoin dominance golden cross on track for September. Interesting. Look what happened in the past. It is very much possible that altcoin dominance is on the verge of a very large move into the golden cross in September as it did the last two prior crosses. You know, I got to control my Bitcoin maximalist-isms, but like I do think you know, you're just buying lotto tickets with these other ones, right?
If you look at the scale of the amount of money in Bitcoin and the size of the network, these are like little pet projects for the most part. So, there's a lot of reason to be bullish. 75K used to be the dream. Today, it's a bummer. Yeah, right. Buy the malaise. Buy the boredom. Buy the negative sentiment in crypto.
My name is Good update. I like this. Yeah, the fundamental thing is we are down. We're not down bad, but we're not we're not mooning. So, we're we're looking at what everyone else is running around having a great time. They're at 400%, you know, we're down from our all-time highs. That's a tough one to stomach, but long-term, I mean, I'm still bullish.
I just can't see how you're not going to be, you know? There's just too much positive momentum, and the price will come to reflect that sooner than later. So, hang in there. Thank you.
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