저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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한줄결론: 시장은 연준이 이미 금리인상을 끝냈다고 보지만, 시겔 교수는 추가 인상 문턱이 매우 높다고 보면서도 금리 인하는 고용 악화 등이 확인될 때에야 가능하다고 본다. 연준 금리 인상 가능성: 시겔은 4월 고용지표가 예상보다 강했고 실업률이 3.4%로 하락해 연준이 더 오래 올릴 수 있다는 추측이 있지만, 자신은 인상이 끝났다고 본다고 설명했다. 추가 인상 조건: 5월 CPI가 예상보다 0.1%p가 아니라 0.2~0.3%p 이상 뜨거워야 하고, 5월 고용지표도 매우 강해야 하며, 6월 회의 직전 CPI도 더 뜨거워야 한다. 세 가지가 모두 일어나면 0.25%p 추가 인상이 테이블에 오를 수 있다고 봤으나 확률은 매우 낮다고 평가했다. 금리 수준과 채권시장: 연방기금금리는 5~5.25% 수준이며 현재 연준이 5% 수준에서 오래 머무를 것으로 본다. 단기 국채 금리가 기준금리보다 5.5% 이상 높은 상황은 매우 드문 상황이라고 언급했다. 채권시장은 연준보다 훨씬 낮은 금리를 반영하고 있어 시장과 연준 중 누가 맞는지 논쟁이 계속되고 있다고 봤다. 부채한도 리스크: 부채한도 문제가 6월까지 해결될지 불확실하며, 임시 연장이 되더라도 해결까지 시간이 걸릴 수 있다고 지적했다. 금리 인하 조건: 금리를 낮추려면 음(-)의 고용증가(비농업 고용 감소)가 필요하며, 한두 달의 마이너스 고용과 실업률 상승이 나오면 정치적 압박도 커질 것이라고 봤다. 이 경우 인플레이션이 연준의 주요 걱정이 아니게 된다고 본다. 인하 시점 전망: 고용 악화가 두세 차례 겹치면 가을(2023년 하반기)쯤 금리 인하가 나올 수 있다고 전망했다. 신용·은행 리스크: 은행 위기나 예금 이탈은 걱정하지 않지만, 대출 기준 강화(신용 긴축)는 확실히 진행될 것으로 보며 연준이 이 효과를 지켜볼 것이라고 평가했다. 임금과 인플레이션: 파월 의장이 임금 상승이 인플레이션의 주된 원인이 아니라고 두 차례 언급한 점을 흥미롭다고 봤고, 임금 억제는 잘못이라고 주장했다.
다듬은 글
the latest monthly employment report showing a stronger than expected increase in non-farm payrolls for the month of April the unemployment rate dipping to 3.4 percent the strength of the report on causing some speculation that the FED could keep raising rates for longer but our next guess is the Fed is done raising and the bar is high for it to continue let's bring in Jeremy Siegel professor emeritus at Finance University Finance at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business good to see you again Professor there were some revisions from previous months so it was stronger than expected but definitely we we've seen the average come down to where it's not near running nearly as hot as it had been so maybe that's why we saw the markets react that way the FED wants to at least the body language they want a position that they still might raise and I understand that you probably understand it too but you don't think they will right I mean uh I think the bar is extremely high I mean let me tell you what I think has to happen uh on Wednesday we get a CPI it has to be much hotter than expected I don't mean just one tenth I I mean you know two three tenths hotter we need a very hot employment report for the month of May and then on the first day of that June meeting we get another CPI and that has to be much harder if those three things happen which I think are way out of uh uh certainly extremely low probability I mean not not impossible uh then I think another quarter point might be on the table but look at all the uncertainties or what the debt a ceiling I mean you guys have been talking about it it is amazing that you know the the treasury bills which are considered the safest in the world that you know uh one month surgery bills are five and a half percent or more above the FED funds rate which is uh you know between five and five and a quarter that is a very rare situation and is that going to be resolved by June and even if if they kick it down the road probably with an extension that won't be resolved for a period of time uh I think the body language and I think you're right I mean Powell was saying that I'm going to let the forces of the cumulative rise and rates which is 500 basis points uh the the tightening that we know is coming because what's going on in central banks there's not going to be a banking crisis I'm not worried about that and a deposit flight and all that I'm worried about tightening of lending standards that's something that is certainly going to take hold and I think he's content to to let that uh uh play itself out and see if that does enough to keep slowing the rate of inflation by the way one other thing I thought was very interesting um he said and he said it twice that he didn't think that wage increases were the principal cause of inflation remember that's something that he had focused on before I thought that was an interesting statement now that that's something that I believe in I think that it's wrong to suppress wages which have fallen behind inflation going forward but he did make that remark twice in the press conference that followed so that body language that statement uh the bar is extremely high so I think uh you know 500 base Point nice round number right uh five percentage points I think they're going to wait a long time we'll start reducing rates later it's been a big move so we are here so so you think in the face of what we're seeing with yields I mean the markets completely different than where the FED is and that we keep having that argument who's right the fed or the or the markets so they're going to stay at five you think they're going to stay there for a while even though the bond market is is saying you're too high or do you think that something happens where they cut sooner than they're planning to well here's the bar for them the lower rates you got to have a negative payroll you got to have a negative payroll I mean then one or two negative payrolls don't forget we're we're getting in a political season where everyone's talking about primaries and you know uh if we get a negative payroll that's going to hit headlines and uh we listen to polls have not been great for Biden in terms of his handling of the economy you all you need is a couple of negative payrolls and Rises unemployment rate and the political pressure on the FED to say hey guys isn't it you know time to maybe start notching down that fed funds rate um you know even if you haven't killed The Last Vestige of inflation uh uh something that would be needed and in fact if if the if if you do see a faltering of of the real economy and lowering of that rate I don't think inflationary pressures are going to be a a major concern for the Fed so you could have to see negative payrolls it's not impossible certainly um uh that's the that's when and the talk will begin on maybe lowering rates and you know two or three of those combined and I think by the Fall we might actually see them Notch down rates
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