저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준은 추가 금리 인상은 사실상 끝났다고 보며, 향후 경기 악화 시 인하 가능성이 있다는 견해. 금리 인상 전망: 다음 고용·물가 지표가 예상보다 훨씬 강하지 않으면 추가 인상은 어렵다고 봄. 6월 FOMC 직전 5월 CPI가 기대치를 크게 웃돌아야 인상 가능성이 생긴다고 설명. 연준 입장 비교: 불라드 총재가 25bp 추가 인상을 주장했으나 최대 긴축 구간에 근접했다고 헤지했으며, 시장도 이를 근거로 움직인다고 분석. 금리 인하 전망: 실업률이 낮아지고 원자재 가격이 오르는 강한 경기는 가능성이 낮음. 마이너스 고용 증가(고용 감소)가 나오면 인하 논의가 시작될 수 있으며, 올해 말까지 인하될 것이라고 전망. 정치 변수: 2024년 대선을 앞두고 경기침체를 원하지 않는 민주당과 바이든 행정부의 압박으로 파월 의장에게 인하 압력이 커질 것이라고 봄. 통화정책 평가: 25bp 인상 자체로 경기가 무너지지는 않지만, 500bp 이상의 누적 긴축과 대출 제한 효과가 충분하다고 판단. 11개월 연속 통화량(M2) 감소를 우려하며 신용 확장이 필요하다고 주장. 은행 시스템: 파월의 '건전하고 탄력적' 평가에 일부 동의. 지역은행의 상업대출 수익성은 훼손되거나 소멸될 수 있으나 은행위기로 보지는 않음. 연준 대출창구는 열려 있지만 금리가 5%로 예금금리보다 높아 비용 부담이 있음. 시장: 증시 강세 흐름을 언급하며 시장이 강해 보인다고 평가.
다듬은 글
let's ask Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School he's back with us Professor it is so good to see you so we have a nice rally on our hands today how does the market look to you now in what has been a very big and interesting and important week the markets look very strong Scott without without question I think the bar is very high for the FED to do another increase I think you would have to see the next employment report to be very strong even stronger than this one I think Tuesday's inflation report would have to be much above expectation and by the way the fir the first day of their June meeting they get uh the May inflation report and that would have to be I think it would have to be a triple strong in my opinion for them to raise again I know we just reported that James board who who has been a Super Hawk thinks that one more 25 basis point increase is called for but he he actually hedged it and uh suggested that we are in the zone of uh the maximum tightening of the fed and I think that's where the market is is taking its cue remember I mean Bullard even throughout the seven handle for the terminal rate remember that it wasn't that long ago when he was talking about maybe going to seven percent so the needle has moved a little bit just let me ask you point blank do you think the fed's done was it 10 and that's it yeah I think I think it is as I say you know if things really get much stronger but the unemployment rate goes down to 3.231 and and and we begin to see Commodities pick up and everything like that which I absolutely think is a very low probability I think the FED is done now that being said at this point you know the bar is also very high for a decrease in rates I think that would only come with a negative payroll number which by the way I don't think we can rule out at all uh in the middle or or second half of this year but uh but certainly um you know that that certainly doesn't look imminent but that would that would start the conversation don't forget Scott we are entering into the political part of the 2024 race uh you know certainly the the Democrats and Biden don't want to go in uh with a recession and if they see those pay worlds per negative an unemployment rate go up there will be a lot of pressure on on chairman Powell to say Hey listen maybe you should think about cutting those rates I still think they will be cut by year end and I think more than really what the what the uh what the the FED is saying and then what the market is saying do you think the FED made a mistake this week by raising rates again I wouldn't have because I I think there's a lot to play out with the cumulative effect of monetary policy but you know it's 25 you know basis point in and of itself going to tank the economy no the cumulative effect of the 500 basis Points Plus The Lending restriction which you know I think is equivalent to two three maybe even 425 basis point Heights I think is you know more than enough I I don't like to see 11 consecutive monthly declines in the money supply uh you know I voiced concern about that I think we need to start expanding that part of the credit system again because I think without it I think we the risk of recession go up but nonetheless no it was a it was a stronger report than than I I expected even though we had downward revisions uh to February in March yeah I mean chairman Powell this week of the banking system for example declared it quote sound and resilient do you agree with that assessment by the chair well I think he was I I think the regional banks that are in the commercial lending certainly our our I'm not going to say in trouble but I think their profits are definitely going going to be in impaired and and maybe wiped out I don't think there's a banking crisis I think the loan spigot from the FED is open although that's at five percent uh you know it's not like the zero to one percent that they get on deposits so if deposits leave these Banks the banks will have recourse to the FED but at a much higher rate so you know if they're lending long-term mortgages well as we thought first uh the Republic at two two and a half and they're borrowing from the FED is five I mean this is one of the problems of inverting the Phillips uh excuse me converting the term structure of interest rates is that uh you're going to get some of those low profits in the bank but I agree with him in terms of runs in terms of impairment to the banking system um uh you know I'm not concerned
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