저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
요약 보기
그린블랫은 워런 버핏의 자본배분 방식을 배우려 했다고 말함. 코카콜라 매수 사례와 Moody's 분석을 통해 비싸 보이는 가격도 장기 성장 사업이면 정당화될 수 있음을 설명. 주식은 사업의 지분이라는 관점 강조. 코스트코의 회원권 중심 모델 등 자본배분 구조를 비즈니스 학습 사례로 소개. 특정 자산의 향후 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
I think more along my skill set would be uh watching Warren Buffett uh allocating capital over the years and trying to learn from what he ended up liking. One of the best things I ever learned from was when he bought Coca-Cola uh and analyzing how he could pay at that time what I thought was such an astronomical price for a fairly uh mundane business.
Uh it had great franchise obviously it was growing reasonably but still based on you know just my cheap gene of buying things cheap and trying to learn from someone who wanted to buy good and cheap uh how much could you pay and so we ended up uh you know Rob and I ended up analyzing when we took a look at uh we like to look at spin-offs and different things we took a look at Moody's uh which is you know the rating agency which was trading at 20 times earnings at the time we were looking at it and uh that's not uh you know back when we were looking at it 20 years ago was not a value investing kind of multiple you know the value investing kind of multiple at that time was six seven eight times and this was trading at 20 times but we love the business and so one of the exercises we did is said okay let's compare it to when Buffett bought Coca-Cola and compare the metrics of these businesses and how they deploy capital, what kind of returns do they get, how fast does it grow, you know, all those things and see whether it's uh as good.
Turned out it wasn't as good. It was, you know, if you said that uh Buffett bought Coke at $10 a share, it worked out that we were paying $13 for Moody's, but of course, Coke went to 30 or 40. uh and so you know short you know within five years and and so paying 13 for something that goes to 30 or 40 would also have been pretty good.
So even though we compared it and said hey Buffett got a better deal uh even adjusting for the type of business it is it was really great to to have that. So just looking how he allocated I mean his allocation of capital is like most akin to ours as an investor. He runs his uh his business like it's a portfolio of companies.
You know, a stock is not a piece of paper that bounces around that you put fancy ratios on. They're actually ownership shares of businesses that you value. And at the end of the day, our only uh home base or true north is that hey, this is an ownership share of a business. Can I value this business as if I'm owning the whole company like a private equity firm?
What's it worth? what am I paying? You know, is management going to be a good steward till we get there? Uh, you know, you ask those kind of questions. Uh, but that's how we look at it and and Buffett's just turned that into actually putting together a conglomerate of a portfolio businesses like that.
So, I think he's the one I've learned the most from. uh but Bezos I think taking us uh into looking at the way companies deploy capital like if you look at Costco for instance uh you know they they very straightforward we don't make money on our business we make money from our memberships and uh you know it's uh you talk to Jim Collins so it's a flywheel where uh if you can uh sell people uh products at cost it's very hard for people who are trying to make a profit to beat you.
But if you can make all your money on the memberships, just selling more and more memberships for the ability to buy it cost. Very simple model, not so hard to understand. And uh the the uh more members you get, the better you can do, the more business you can do, and you know, the far returns. And so you you there are few and far between, but there are models like that.
Just learning from watching the best do it as you're suggesting. I I don't want to name five, but you know, those are three models that, you know, have certainly resonated with
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