저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 소수 대형 기술주가 지수를 주도하며, 이들 기업은 비합리적 버블이 아니라 합리적으로 평가된 우량 사업이라고 봄. 2019년 적자 기업 299개를 전부 매수했다면 올해 100% 이상 상승했을 것이라는 통계를 제시하며 역발상 전략의 성과를 설명. 다만 과거 통계가 최악의 전략이었다는 점은 인정하고, 미래에는 적자 기업 중 확실한 승자가 나올 수 있다고 봄. 회계상 투자(R&D·고객확보 비용)가 비용으로 처리돼 적자로 보일 뿐이라는 점을 강조하며, 이 기업들이 아마존급이 된다고 시장이 가정하는 것은 비현실적이라고 경고.
다듬은 글
It's very hard you know it's a market of stocks not a stock market so uh most of the big indexes are driven by the Amazon Google Microsoft uh Apple uh and those businesses don't seem very irrational to me those are some of the greatest businesses that man has ever created uh partially due to the internet interconnectedness of the world you can name it the types of franchises they can create.
I don't think we've seen the quality of and the growth trajectory and sort of the unlimited growth trajectory of some of these businesses before. And so those uh prices make sense to me uh or they're not like wildly overvalued like the internet bubble. I think they're actually perhaps reasonably valued and perhaps good investments.
We own a lot of those uh businesses, but we looked up a statistic uh along the lines of what you're suggesting. Uh last year, if you there were there are now uh 299 companies that lost money in 2019. So this is pre-COVID. So there were money losers in 2019 uh with a market cap now over a billion dollars.
And if you bought every single one of those money losers, those 299 companies with market caps over a billion dollars now, uh, you would be up over 100% so far this year. And the median stock is up, I think, 47%, you know, through the end of November. Anyway, I had those stats. So, it's not like one stock going up a zillion percent.
It's, you know, pretty much across the board these money losers. That's your strategy. Buy everything that loses money. Now I have a lot of statistics to say that buying that group of companies is the single worst strategy you could concoct in the past. Will it be the single worst going forward? I would say there will be definite winners from that group that lose money.
And the world has changed and the business world has changed in this way that many of those businesses are investing in their future. It looks like not an investment. You know, it used to be, you know, you build a factory or you invest in capital equipment or whatever it is. And you could see it on the balance sheet.
here uh you know a lot of that gets expensed uh you know uh you know I'm just thinking like we just switched over to Salesforce for instance as a simple example so Salesforce is a software program that you know many firms use to track all their marketing and sales and you know it's pretty much all over the place and uh Salesforce actually and I don't remember the exact number but paid $50,000 or something to some third party to convert whatever system we were on before.
Convert us, you know, our business onto their uh process and I don't know what we pay for Salesforce, but not $50,000 a year. Yeah. But their bet is that the lifetime value of us as a customer, you know, we'll last eight or 10 years and that that payoff is going to be huge over time. And so it's the same thing as let's say Amazon Amazon doing Prime Video.
You know, they spend a lot of money upfront spending billions of dollars on so you know uh uh movies and series and things like that. And they're betting that you'll stay as a customer more, you'll spend more over time, and your lifetime value will be a lot higher. But the way our accounting system works uh is that uh you you get to expense those things.
So it looks like cash out the door, but really it's capital spending. Same with marketing. If you if you spend uh 40 if you're a software manufacturer, you spend $40 uh to get a new customer and you uh and he hasn't paid off yet, but you're going to make $250 from that customer. he's worth $250 over the years.
Well, you get to deduct that $40 now. You know, people are yelling, "Hey, Amazon doesn't pay taxes, this and that." Well, they keep taking all the money that they earn from all their great businesses, reinvesting in their business in, you know, customer retention, customer acquisition, you know, it's all from creating things that they think they'll get paid off over the long term.
But I don't think the accounting world has has kept up with that. So, you know, just because you're losing money now. Uh what I would say though for those 299 companies is everyone realizes that and everyone is assuming that these guys are going to be the next Amazon, Google, Microsoft and there will not be there'll be a handful of big winners like that but those 299 companies are getting credit as if they will be the next Amazon, Google, Microsoft. Seems unlikely that all of them or even a big percentage of them
Comments 0