저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
요약 보기
단일 종목 비중은 기회를 놓치는 것보다 큰 실수일 수 있어 중요하다. 큰 포지션은 잠재 상승이 크고 손실 위험이 제한된 종목(비대칭 수익)에 두어야 하며, 비중은 '가격'이 아니라 현실적으로 잃을 수 있는 금액 기준으로 봐야 한다. 주택 구매를 예로 들어 위험 체감을 재구성하면 더 큰 비중을 감당할 수 있다고 설명. 최대 비중은 10~20% 수준을 언급.
다듬은 글
If you have this great investment, unless it's, you know, Tesla last year that's going to go 10x and you put 2% in uh and it goes up 50 or 100%. Uh you could have blown it. That could have been your worst investment of all time because you had should have had a 10 or 20% position, you know, and really move the needle.
And so I almost think that uh position sizing is the most important thing and that uh being too timid on the few good ideas that come your way is like the biggest mistake people make. Uh but of course to take a large position. You have to be willing to be wrong and take big losses. You have to be patient to wait for that big position to to know when it's there.
And I would say that the biggest positions, and this is key, the biggest positions I've had are not my best ones. The ones that I think will go up five or 10 times. I'm really looking down, not up. When I take a big position, so in other words, I will size the position larger if I don't think I can lose much money.
It's not like the thing that's going to pay 10 or 20 times. Obviously, if you have a a $10 stock that's sitting with $9 in cash and no debt and they have a little business attached, uh you can buy a lot of that one as long as you don't think they'll dissipate the cash. Uh as long as there's a chance for a big upside, you're looking for asymmetric returns.
One of the one of the best things I think I ever wrote was in You Can Be a Stock Market Genius. I wrote uh if you don't lose money, most of the other alternatives are good. And so the chance for asymmetric returns and the uh uh the fact that I took whether it's I think people look at the size of their position that's the wrong way to look at it.
It's looking at how much can you lose from that position. And when I lo when I say lose, crazy things happen whether it's COVID or 2008, you know, Leman goes down or something like that where over a short period of time stocks or other securities can trade at any price. That's not what I'm talking about how much I'm risking.
As long as you're uh don't leverage too much and you can wait it out. What I'm talking about is if a reasonable person won't lose much money if they can pick their spot to sell it over the next couple of years. That's what I'm viewing is how much I have at risk. If I can be patient, sell it when I want to sell it over the next couple of years, what's the worst I really think I'm going to do?
That's how much I'm at risk for. And then how much does the reward pay off relative to that? So if something I could lose a dollar or two in, I could easily have a 20% position in because I'm not risking that 20%. I'm risking it's it's almost like let's say you're buying a and and I've given this advice to kids and friends and whatever.
If you're buying a house, which is usually one of the biggest uh purchases most people can make, it's, you know, obviously going to be a lot of money relative to your net worth most of the time and how much you earn and everything else. Better to look at, you know, how much do I think I could lose in this investment rather than that big hairy number that's scary because houses are expensive uh relative to almost any context of most people whether it's how much they're worth or their salaries.
But if you then can say, you know what, I think I'm only at risk for 10 or 20% of whatever I pay for my house realistically, uh, that maybe makes it more sleepable. You know, you don't want to bet. You know, you want to be able to sleep well. So, if you contextualize it that way, most people can take that risk or or at least can take a more risk than they they think in that way.
So, the same thing with investing. I would say that it's how much it's at risk, not what the actual size is. It's a 10 or 20% position in our portfolio.
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