저자: Kevin · 외국인
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플로리다 주택시장은 팬데믹 붐 이후 전년比 상승률이 0%로 둔화, 보험료·세금 부담과 고가화로 실수요 이탈 가능성. 전국 주택가격은 2022년 고점 대비 약 11~12% 하락 후 재회복 중이며, 재택근무 역류 시 명문학군 지역(남부 캘리포니아 등) 중심 재편 가능성을 제기. 1~3개월 단기 방향 예측은 명확히 제시되지 않음.
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hey everyone me Kevin here I was blown away by this piece in a Bloomberg and we've got to talk about it because it gives us a lot of insight into what may be actually going on with real estate and it potentially leaves more questions than answers so you might not know this but I spent 16 years growing up in Florida I think Florida has a lot of great features to it the fact that the water is warm and the beaches are amazing is awesome and the hurricanes and once you live through them they're not that scary but insurance rates do suck big time especially since I pay about 2200 bucks a month I'm sorry 2200 bucks a year for homeowners insurance policy for a three bedroom two bath house in California that probably costs about six to seven thousand dollars in Florida thanks to hurricanes now of course the California one does exclude hurricane era exclude earthquakes so maybe that's not entirely a fair comparison but that is the comparison that people make so anyway let's try to actually get to some facts though what are some facts and what are we starting to see happen with the Florida real estate market and what is it potentially say for the rest of the United States especially since you might be thinking hey eventually I want to get into owning real estate and I want to make sure I buy in an area that I really believe in that ends up going up in value not down in value you know we don't want to be in what will end up being ghost towns in fact that's probably one of the biggest mistakes that individuals make when they buy real estate is they simply sort cities by cap rate and then all of a sudden you look at a city and you're like oh well that place gets me a 10 cap or like a you know 12 cash on cash return and then you go look at the city and you're like bro it's in the middle of nowhere the population is plummeting the poverty rate is skyrocketing and everyone's leaving and there's no job to get here those areas carry higher cap rates because they have to in other words the market Works in incredible ways the market says hey if we want to sell a property we have to offer the purchaser a higher yield to be willing to purchase there because the town might go bankrupt in other words there's a risk that's associated with that area so usually when you see higher cap rates the first thing you should be thinking of is higher risk this is why in my opinion the best way to buy real estate is of course buying Fixer-Upper real estate and conducting construction Arbitrage I call those wedge deals but anyway ignore all that for a moment what's most important is when you on the flip side look at an area and go man that area sucks San Diego properties are selling for a two cap who would buy their well golly everyone would because everybody wants to live there San Diego is beautiful I don't live in San Diego I wish I lived in San Diego it's awesome but again that just puts some background on cap rate here the point of this video though is this Florida has been a huge beneficiary of the covid boom but now it looks like there's a little bit of a flip-flop but I want to dive into this because a few days ago I theorized that there's probably going to be a reversal of the work from home Trend that movement towards Austin and Boise and maybe even you know Vegas or Arizona whatever and the reason I I theorized that was because over the last about six months of traveling to hundreds of different cities or the same cities multiple times whatever what I noticed is an inflection I noticed more rentals hitting the market more rentals staying on the market longer it made me start wondering about has the rental market hit a bottom and I don't know the answer to that we know that home prices have actually started recovering very well which was the opposite of what a lot of people believed including myself but buyers just got used to higher interest rates partly actually potentially primarily because of low housing inventory but what is this Bloomberg article about well let's go through it together a little bit and see if we can learn something so a stampede of northeasterners In Search Of Sunshine and cheaper living in Florida sent the Florida housing market into a frenzy throughout the pandemic single-family home prices in Florida have flattened however now for the first time since 2011 climbing almost 50 percent in the last three years in other words real estate in Florida has absolutely boomed in fact here you could see home price growth in just the last few years on a on a what is this a quarter to quarter this is a month over month basis no it's not month of a month it's monthly compared year over year every month they're showing you how much prices have gone up compared to the prior year and so you can see it's been sitting around uh you know this comparison of of every month you're looking going yep prices are up again 14 compared to last year 14 15 16 22 27 and it's just continued well now all of a sudden we have officially gone to Flat uh that is uh there it is zero percent look at that for April year over year now that is actually impressive because if you consider what's happened Nationwide home prices are actually slightly negative Nationwide year over year only about two to three percent and if you go to some specific markets you'll see a little bit more of a decline remember about peak in March of 2022 to trough of about December of 2022.
prices did fall about 10 Nationwide we've just seen that recovery already take a look at this particular chart here this is the Redfin data center the Blue Line shows you home prices in 2023 and what you're finding and what happens here is Nationwide you can see that home prices were down about one percent year over year right now but if you actually look at this peak of 2022 at about 387 385 relatively flat over here and we compare that to the bottom in about December January right over here on the right side it's December 350 bottom over here I guess maybe in this case Nationwide was closer to January 341.
you make that comparison 341 341 divided by 380. you're down about 11 divided by 387 341 divided by 387. you're seeing this about 12 percent Peak trough to climb but it was really an adjustment led by interest rates and markets have recovered thanks to inventory Rising uh thanks to stable inventory now it's possible that a rise in inventory could end up driving prices down again what seems to be more interesting to pay attention to now in addition to of course watching inventory is watching what happens with demographic Trends and that's where we get to this Florida piece the pullback in Florida while still moderate compared to downturns in areas like Phoenix and Austin shows the limits of the pandemic Boon that has priced out locals and inflated the cost of entry for newcomers one top destination for New Yorkers heading South Miami is now the most unaffordable metro area in the United States billionaire Venture capitalists and our buddy over and volunteer Peter Thiel said last month he'd be reluctant to relocate his operations to Florida because home prices in the Sunshine State have risen so much interestingly when I had dinner with Kathy Wood she indicated that she purposely didn't move to Miami because it was so uh expensive there and it had already become such a hub that she'd rather move her operations to Tampa which she did in hopes of creating sort of more of a West Coast of Florida Hub but it's the wealthy who have the most to gain from Florida's lack of a state income tax for the middle class other costs by two including property insurance and then of course uh you know whether that's toll roads or registration fees or sales taxes whatever it may be property taxes themselves and the fact is you have this bizarre almost slowing of migration into Florida in fact here statistically we can see that migration into Florida sits so far at about 56 percent compared to people moving out which is down from 58 percent last year and down from 62 percent in 2021 and so there's this question now of is this demographic transition in real estate going to end up rejiggering again the real estate market and I'm the last person who likes to say wait to buy real estate but I would argue that there are a lot of areas that people have moved to for pandemic related benefits like work from home that would actually be very risky to invest in today it might actually be better if you were looking at buying real estate in various different areas or you're trying to figure out what area you want to invest in it might actually be better to start investing in areas that you know no matter what demographically are always going to attract people to live there then I had a theory I go okay we can look at best places to live all day long but a lot of those rankings are based on data from 2019 2020 maybe 2021 and a lot has changed since then a lot of these areas have become relatively unaffordable and some of their rankings are potentially at risk of falling away and I also couldn't really find a link between oh yeah these are definitely areas that people want to live because of weather or schools or whatever it was more of oh no people are going to live there because of affordability and work from home so what I thought is okay if we're getting away from work from home then where will people want to live and so I put myself into the shoes of a person who would want to move and I thought well I want to be where I can safely live not have to worry about crime and send my children to safe and good quality schools and so I thought okay that is consistent with what I've heard every real estate agent tell me in my travels over the last six months the best neighborhoods always seem to be where the best schools are now that's not necessarily to say one cause is the other because it's entirely possible that the best neighborhoods are the ones that are the most expensive and therefore they're the most tax dollars to go create the best schools right but for whatever reason there seems to be a link with the best schools and people wanting to live there right to some extent is apparent that makes sense I have two children I have two more on the way and I want to live in an area with the best schools and so what I did is I searched on just sort of on Google and I kind of compiled the list and thought okay let's create let's pull the top 20 cities to live in with the best schools and this isn't a saying that this is the best data set I just it it struck me as interesting at first so I'm not again I'm not saying this is guaranteed the the best thing to look at you know and obviously there are a lot of problems with this particular state but look at this out of the list of 20 uh cities with the best schools in America the first one was actually Naperville uh Illinois which is a place I've been wanting to go to I visited Chicago a couple times since but I still haven't made it out to Naperville or Naperville however you say uh that was interesting but there were a lot of miscellaneous States that had sort of one city on this list and so what I did is I pasted the whole list into chat GPT to just make it easier for me and I'm like yo just rank how many times the cities were in what state and look at the result that I got I got nine out of the top 20 that ended up in California three in Texas and these were cities I've heard of before like Plano Texas and a lot of great schools out there you've got a lot of newer construction out there as well as it's sort of like pushing out from the Dallas uh Fort Worth area but anyway uh Illinois that's the Naperville One Michigan Washington Virginia Kansas Colorado Mass but all of those only had one city with the exception of Texas that had three California had nine now I know California's got a large population it's got somewhere around 10 percent of the entire country's population just in one state but what then I wanted to do was say hey how many of those top 20 are actually in Southern California which is where the best weather is in the entire country you can't dispute that because the best most human conducive weather in the world is known as the Chaparral climate which is generally found around the Mediterranean the southern tip of Africa the southern edge of Australia in a certain part and Southern California only about seven percent of the world is covered by the Mediterranean climate and is the most conducive for human habitations generally because the temperature is like 68 to 74 year round maybe 76 somewhere there so it just depends on which particular part but it's very very moderate you could look this up this is simple it's not something to dispute and look at the result from the list you provided I don't live in any of those cities by the way just keep that in mind I'm not trying to be biased here I just I thought this was very interesting from the list you provided seven of the cities were in Southern California specifically and I started this video out by yapping about San Diego and I thought to myself well of course people want to live there so they're willing to pay they're willing to buy a property with a lower cap rate to get the best schools and so my point here was is what if over the next three four five years maybe even decade we have a transition where people actually concentrate back at sort of a work locally but now we have this desire to live and work where we want to live where the weather is most conducive and the schools are potentially the best uh that potentially could flip-flop some of these ratings of Which towns you'd actually want to invest in long and short out of all of this is if you're looking to shop for Real Estate and you're not exactly sure where you want to buy yet because you're not convinced you want to buy where you are living then maybe the correct answer is actually looking first at where do people want to live whether it's weather whether it's schools or otherwise if people are only moving to an area because it's the most affordable then they'll leave as soon as it's not affordable anymore but if people want to live in an area regardless of the cost then maybe there's a reason why it would make the most sense to invest in the highest quality areas first and foremost it's an interesting Theory and I think it's something that's definitely subject to Common and I'm very curious to hear what you all have to say leave me a comment down below let me know what you think these are my thoughts and it's something that I'm going to be researching and studying a lot more over the next three to six months before we start going and pulling the trigger with spending all the money we've got buying real estate and fixing up properties so we can finally add some more Rental Supply to the market thanks so much for watching we'll see you soon
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