저자: Kevin · 외국인
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TS Lombard과 Greed&Fear 등 베어 리포트들이 리스크 관리 차원에서 주식 비중을 늘리는 등 약세 논리가 흔들리고 있다고 지적. 펀드매니저 서베이상 주식 비중은 여전히 낮고 현금·채권 비중이 높아 자금이 주식으로 유입될 여지가 크다고 주장. 기술주(특히 칩·반도체)에 우호적이며 소프트웨어 AI 버블 가능성은 경계. 2023년 6월 시점 영상으로 과거 시점의 견해임.
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oh boy you just can't make this stuff up oh one of my favorite sources to go to to find bears well there are actually two of them one is T.S Lombard and the second is the greed and fear index and both of them have pieces out that just made me laugh and I'm really not trying to rub salt in the wound but I'm actually legitimately starting to get concerned that being a bull is about to get very crowded because I'm concerned that the Bears are all going to flip over and then we're going to have a bubble market and then I'm gonna have to become a bear again in flip-flop this is crazy but listen to this I I literally had to write what the f on this document what the f I kid you not T.S Lombard a great resource for looking at the Bears lately has just said the following to manage the near-term risk of a melt up we add to equities and go neutral you should be laughing your butt off right now the Bears at TS Lombard literally just said well even though we're Bears because we're missing out so much we are going to add to our stock positioning because the Market's going to melt up if we don't well the Market's gonna melt up if all the Bears flip-flop over because they realize they've been wrong but oh my gosh I this is remarkable especially when you combine this with what we talked about in the Bank of America fund survey the other day uh in fact towards the end of this video I'll include what we talked about at the B of A fund survey positioning is so low in equities right now that of course the Bears have to flip but let's take a look more at this let's give the article some respect here Beyond well what I just did anyway equities continue to price in a soft Landing scenario which in our view is still elusive the US recession remains a consensusive consensus view right so because a recession is so for sure going to happen and the fed's going to commit another policy mistake of course the best thing to do right now is to add to equities because while prices are going up I mean it it's just becoming an eye roller but let's look a little bit more into their detail so here are their rationales so first they say the recession is in the cards because of the late impacts of tighter monetary policy we've heard that argument a million times before inflation has started to surprise to the downside oh darn it that doesn't feed into the bear narrative it actually encourages uh assets like stocks to go up spells especially wages being subdued meaning no wage prices and guess what oh yeah risk assets tend to perform well during disinflationary periods and darn it there might even be some short squeezes so you know what we're just going to have to increase our Equity allocation okay that defies logic if that's really what you believe but okay continuing on but we do think a recession is going to happen because of oh no the inverted yield curve oh no and the refilling of the TGA which we already know the refilling of the TGA liquidity pain is a total myth it's just coming straight out of the reverse repo facility basically people like oh no there's a lack of money at the treasury and then people who are actually looking at the data are like dude there's over two trillion dollars sloshing around in the reverse repo facility the FED could go like this and lower reverse repo rates if they needed to and that liquidity would be totally in Balance again but guess what they don't even need to because there is no liquidity crisis ah it's pretty it's just ridiculous anyway if the US does indeed go to a recession it's difficult to imagine the rest of the world not catching the proverbial cold so here they're basically saying if the United States sneezes everybody else catches a cold and it's a way to say like this is why we're still bearish on stocks because you have to be bearish because if the U.S goes into recession everything's gonna get sucked into this void of Hell uh and so then they argue but uh you know if we do get a recession the FED will probably cut rates aggressively but of course because we're Bears that's going to be negative at first before it's positive rate Cuts would not be a good thing uh at least initially that because you know stocks are going to sell off during the re-stepening of the inversion of the yield curve right just like stocks sold off in March during the banking crisis and the yield curve inverted 50 basis points in a matter of two days oh wait stocks were flat and then skyrocketed thereafter that's right they didn't actually go down okay anyway the problem with this logic is that when a recession starts it's difficult to know for sure when it'll end so maybe you know even though some people think they can just look through a mild recession things might end up really really bad because it's uncertain to know when the recession is going to end the Bears are now resorting to okay okay all right maybe maybe stocks won't go down in an initial part of the recession and in fact maybe things won't actually be that bad because after all Germany's in recession and their stock market's at an all-time high New Zealand just entered into a technical recession and their stock market's barely down you know like a few percentage points so maybe maybe going into recession isn't the bad part maybe it's the fact that once we go into a recession we don't know when it'll end and yeah that'll be the bad part but in the meantime we're still going to buy stocks this is like this is an embarrassing piece this is an embarrassment to the Bears I'll get to another piece in just a moment I want to talk about their downside risks here and then I want to so there are two more pages three more pages here and then we're going to jump over to the greed and fear in uh paper which is actually a pretty good paper but uh we'll go through what they're saying they're also bears but anyway uh so what do you say here oh yeah don't position yourself for defensive stocks which would be like your health care and utility stocks because oh the recession might not come soon enough for the defensives to play out oh that's probably bad for Staples as well and missing the late stages of an equity rally can lead to massive lost returns of in the S P 500 13 to 9 oh so that's why you guys are increasing stocks purely because or your stock allocation purely because of fomo darn uh also you have s p physician positioning right now uh that is the shortest since a 2007 and institutional investors are pretty mispositioned so really what you have is you have a lot of shorts and a lot of misposition funds that are literally punching the air right now going this can't be this was supposed to be a hellish market and it's all going good in fact when I launched my ETF people were leaving me comments going you're an idiot 2023 is going to be the worst year in a century and I'm like bring it on it's been like straight up from there whatever man so individual investors have turned bullish albeit somewhat slightly over here institutional investors the ones with the big dollars are missing out and so now TS Lombard says well mind the short squeeze because the short squeeze is going to cause more fomo and blah blah blah okay let's go jump on over to TS Lombard oh uh sorry this is TS Lombard we're gonna go to Greed and fear but quickly they say uh they're the building out of a bubble is starting this is like the classic uh bear argument when the bearer is wrong for too long they just start punching the air again screaming well well fine maybe I was wrong but no it's a bubble and so the ingredients are a good fundamental story a compelling narrative to justify future growth and liquidity or leverage to take on speculative wrist risk-taking they suggest that AI seems to be the place for that to some extent I think that's going to actually be true I think that there will be a bubble in uh in software AI I don't know that we are yet at liquidity or leverage because I don't think individual or institutional uh investment liquidity is that great right now for equities so I I'm not convinced that we have all three pieces yet but I do think eventually there'll be a software bubble uh so what do we have here here's the greed and fear uh document there is no doubt that the pain trade is getting more painful for those Equity investors still defensively positioned as confidence grows that AI provides the next productivity enhancing narrative in other words it sucks to be a bear right now especially since AI conveniently happens to also be disinflationary greed and fear has to emit again remember they're Bears okay they've been Bears greed and fear has to admit again that this is indeed a powerful narrative which the cautiously inclined need to treat with respect in other words all the Bears need to respect the rally because it might actually have legs especially the pick and shovel themes like chips or designers for chips like Nvidia and Chip manufacturers huh we've been saying that for about nine months but okay all right what else do they have to say uh okay to talk a little bit about Microsoft and Apple here okay here we go now the core issue in the coming months is which part of the fed's Dual mandate the FED will prioritize will they prioritize inflation or employment in other words if employment starts unemployment starts Rising will they blink and cut rates and they believe the chances that they're going to favor preventing unemployment and they'll become more patient with inflation in fact some will make the argument which is likely a good argument some will make the argument that right now the FED is being so aggressive on inflation because they have the Liberty to be because we don't really see the massive job losses yet yes there have been job losses but they have not been to the level of massive yet or really Rising unemployment above four percent uh then we've got a bank deposits starting to rise again so the banking crisis somewhat coming to an end uh on page 14 they talk about Chinese consumers being risk adverse and this Chinese slowdown yes we already know that uh and then of course they talk a little bit about this Shadow banking crisis about how half of uh the world's Financial assets are controlled by non-bank Financial uh systems really at this point what you're saying is uh the Bears for greed and fear at least it's kind of embarrassing but honestly I'll highlight it here for you this means that if there is a real problem lurking the world is likely to find out about it after the event and not before and that's actually how they end their bear piece so think about that for a moment the Bears are literally on one hand you have TS Lombard that's like we're such Bears we're gonna buy stocks and then you have greed the greed and fear index uh those folks who are real big bears going yeah this rally has legs but but um did you know half the world's Financial assets were controlled by non-banks doesn't that sound like a Black Swan to you and then they slam the door shut and it's like dude that's not a valid conclusion anyway I want to play a little bit from the Bank of America fund manager survey so let's jump into that but I'll tell you this is just getting hilarious now we've got to cover what fund managers are allocating to and Bank of America just released the fund manager survey for this month and they give us some pretty good Insight in terms of at least where registered investment advisors are allocating their clients capital and what I like to do is I like to be the contrarian I like to look at this and go okay where are things crowded so I know not to go there and so let's go through some of the individual sections that I've highlighted the first and this is not a surprise we started making fun of this probably around two months ago we started arguing just wait you're going to start seeing the recession calls for Q3 get delayed to Q4 and then q1 and literally look at the fund manager survey here start a recession punted into Q3 q1 2024.
it looks like you have most people targeting at least from the fund manager survey about 33-ish percent of folks looking at a recession in Q4 and then about 25 percent in 2024 with 14 percent of fund managers seeing no recession in the next 12 months now note here you do have this optimism that seems to be slightly balanced between hard and soft Landing when you look at the June and may survey as far as uh aware the the bias is though it's definitely towards a soft Landing uh the the hard Landing narrative only resonates with about 26 27 percent of fund managers and uh but but most people are expecting a soft Landing which means not a stronger economy that's important to consider because if everybody's thinking of oh everything's gonna be stronger everything's gonna be better you know that that becomes wildly bullish So Soft Landing shouldn't be considered uh Stronger it should just be considered not recession but slower right so any kind of revisions to the upside where you actually do in end up having a stronger economy would not yet be priced in at least according to fund manager allocations this is where you have that Chinese optimism flipping back to pessimism this is something we talked about actually over here specifically I called the Chinese reopening click bait and the reason I called the Chinese reopening clickbait is because first of all nobody knows clickbait better than I do and so when I saw it when I saw the setup for this Chinese stuff I'm like oh yeah that's clickbait there's no way there's no way with the lack of savings that the Chinese have relative to Americans coming out of the lockdowns there's no way you're going to get this this insane boom in China and that that'll end up driving inflation like people expected now what you have now is basically optimism shifting to pessimism but on top of that yesterday you had an announcement of some rate cuts from the Bank of China and so what did you the People's Bank in China so what you ended up seeing is you actually saw oil move up about three percent just on the day yesterday because China is now resorting to stimulus to try to basically help the Chinese get it up and the pricing Powers just not not happening right now you're also seeing some of that more luxury spend that luxury discretionary spent start showing cracks and and China can be one of the reasons for that uh here's another one uh this was just 15 expect stronger economic growth I find that quite interesting this right here is remarkable because you you and and Steve here asks you don't think the government is going to stimulate in China no no they will the government will stimulate but remember that Chinese stimulus is different from American stimulus Chinese stimulus is usually infrastructure spent or corporate stimulus it is rarely consumer stimulus and that is a very different slower moving animal when you when you stimulate uh businesses and infrastructure compared to the consumer which is a very quick and very spendy animal anyway looking over here just 15 expecting stronger economic growth that's a really low number again that in my opinion means markets still today even after the stock market rally are actually not pricing in the potential for a stronger uh uh growth set which is remarkable um no PayPal's not pricing in 6pe um yeah I mean if you go forward very very far maybe but uh for the end of this year PayPal's pricing in just as a tangent somewhere around uh a 12 to 13 p e ratio which puts you at about a peg of one but again if if the growth of PayPal evaporates from 10 to 12 down to five percent uh then then you're actually starting to look you know then you may as well buy Tesla at a two Peg uh or a 2.4 Peg so keep that in mind when you're doing your growth valuations something obviously we regularly talk about of course in the programs on building your wealth which is the perfect time for me to remind you about these four phases of price increases we have coming this is going to be a reward to all the existing uh course members as we've got large sets of new lectures coming out for stocks and psych we're adding AI real estate zero to millionaire adding Ai and then more AI lectures in the making more money in the productivity course but we're going to have four phases of price increases the first price increase will occur on June 16th so check that out and linked it down below if you want to lock in the best pricing okay back to the fund manager surveys and this lack of really pricing in a strong economy is shocking to me you have negative a net negative 62 expectation for a stronger economy being priced in that's a sign of really if we get growth this year and next year people are vastly mispositioned uh still today this is a this is a survey that just came out and despite this stock market rallying you still have a mispositioning only two percent of investors actually expect higher inflation the inflation's basically over but the question then is okay well how long is it going to take to get inflation debt that's the real question now uh so you've got this idea of the FED flip flop here uh how many people actually think the FED is done only about 32 percent of fund managers actually think the FED is done that's a flip from what we saw in May but as of June most people think the FED is actually going to hike again uh in the future so we'll find that interesting uh fed First Fed rate cut expectations most rate cut expectations are sitting in q1 2024 so no more rate cut expectations set for 2023 here or here you can see those are relatively low although there's still that chance for the end of the year okay continuing here we have investors wanting companies to increase Capital expenditures at the highest level since September of 2022 actually not too terribly long ago but uh you're you're still seeing more of this likely because of artificial intelligence a desire uh fund managers to see companies invest uh in their companies rather than just save money and increase cash although improving their balance sheet still very very important which is the blue line here cash level you could see cash levels slowing a bit we're still above the longer term average of where cash levels sit the longer term average is the lower red line and where we sit right now is the upper red line so right here in between if I shade this in this shows you your excess cash position compared to history according to fund manager allocations so a little bit higher on cash allocation than expected these are month over month changes in investor positioning you could see Investments alternative Investments actually seeing a little bit of a rise uh this could be like your gold for example uh and real estate whereas a lower on cash for allocations jumping in over here investors on a bonds uh less interesting over here in fact I'm just going to move forward over here because we have a different segment that talks about bonds so uh this chart fascinating compared to the last ones I just skipped here this chart fascinating this shows you investor fund manager allocation to technology stocks versus energy stocks and what you can see is Technology stock allocation hit a peak in April of 2020 during coveted lockdown period and September of 2015 but if you draw a longer term average of where technology allocation has been between 2010 and 2020 ignoring the 2000s.com bubble disaster and the Great Recession you can actually see we're allocated somewhat on the low side relative to where we have been in the last decade and frankly I would make the argument that inflation or or rather technology allocations today are much more important that's what I wrote here in the red much more important today than where they were uh in the last decade so I think this low allocation to Tech is a mistake I started highly allocating to Tech uh really in this November area over here I even created a fund uh about November 30th that was highly allocated to chips and Technology at the time everybody made fun of me for it but you know I guess that's the way it works so anyway unfortunately this one bothered me they indicate that even though allocations to equity are low and growth expectations are low the most crowded trade right now as of June 2023 is being long technology so I thought okay does it make sense to allocate a little bit more again to the US dollar and while I consider that I realized you have a large opportunity cost of allocating to the dollar or treasuries given the potential rise in in equities so that is a risk now this was about the opposite that I thought uh so it actually still is so this right here shows you the worries that fund managers have for the market and what you actually see is fund managers are most worried with about a 35 percent worry level of high inflation keeping central banks hawkish followed by a Global Credit Crunch at about 22 percent geopolitics worsening at about 16 some sort of Black Swan at 12 13 and AI being a bubble at just nine percent I was actually slightly the opposite of this now that's crazy to think oops I knocked over one of my lights uh anyway so I was the opposite of this the reason I was the opposite of this is because I do not I'm not terribly worried about this I think that this is Click bait so I'm going to break this down here and this is what I think is incredible because you you kind of want to see where you're different so I found this to be in my opinion clickbait I also think this is clickbait which is the credit crunch so in other words this higher for longer nonsense and and the continued hiking I think these two are clickbait I'm kind of neutral on Ukraine and Russia and the impacts on the market as well as this uh systemic event I'm actually more concerned about an AI bubble and the reason I'm more concerned about an AI bubble is I think that people are really misallocating to Software I think that a lot of fund managers don't realize uh to some extent and it depends on the type of application to some extent how easy open Ai and some of these language models have made it to create an AI startup or AI software in an example I'd like to give you is Snowflake and this hasn't played out yet but consider this c3ai has all has been running on this idea that it's Enterprise Ai and oh you know they have emote in Enterprise Ai and nobody's better than c3i at Enterprise AI so what does snowflake do yesterday they come out and announce Enterprise Ai and it made me think wow you know that here's the direct risk and now a direct competitor to companies like potentially a palantir or a a snowflake when you have or sorry not snowflake to announce it was Salesforce here's a direct competitor to Snowflake and palantir and c3ai Salesforce just boom now we have Enterprise AI and the reason I say that is these companies have so many massive teams dedicated to creating the software Suites that people are going to spend money on that software competition for Enterprise AI is about to explode and it's actually going to give the government substantially more uh choices in determining what's best for them that's a competitor to Gotham uh for a palantir and it's also going to create competition for Foundry over at palantir which is their commercial Enterprise segment and my point of this is I think fund managers are over allocating to software when it's really unclear who's going to win from the software AI LED Revolution and I'm not going to make bets on software I've actually been reducing my exposure to software because I think it's too bubbly and frothy I would rather allocate more to chips and Chip manufacturing than software I could end up being wrong about that but I don't think I will be because I don't think any of us know who is going to profit the most from Ai and remind remind yourselves of that I'm not saying who's going to have the most customers or who has the best software we're going to say who's going to profit the most from the software that's a very different question and that is a question that I remain unconvinced on because the barriers to entry are like nearly zero and it depends what you're doing with AI right that's where the barriers because if you have to train a model and your IP is the way you've trained a model then that's unique but if your IP is well we'll make a software suite for you so you could use chat GPT you have zero mode and quite frankly you deserve virtually no profit so it depends what the offering is I suppose okay speaking of offering have I shown you the price increase schedule how we're raising prices for in four phases for the courses on building your wealth people ask me Kevin why are you raising prices you're contributing to inflation first of all I'm not because I'm not in this inflation report uh otherwise I suppose I would be but second of all uh we keep adding more value so if you adjust for the value we're adding the courses are actually deflating even though the nominal prices are going up the value you're getting is going up uh it is so much more that uh that your nominal payment to set it's actually less or the real payment there you go that's that's the way to put it the real payment is actually less so risk barometer you could see some more risk appetite coming in for fund managers look at this folks look at that rotation away from Staples and cash we saw this coming a mile away finally you're seeing that walk away from Staples over here finally look at these fears now if there's one chart that made me very very excited it was this look at it over history fears plummeting in the fund manager survey like if you go to the bottom of this look at some of these fears EU sovereign debt funding crisis the collapse of the EU Chinese hard Landing geopolitical crises U.S Festival Cliff this is all back to 2013 2011 2012 EU is going to fall apart the oh no the FED in 2018 the trade war covid and if you actually look at where we sit on the fear level right now if I take a big highlighter and draw it through the the sort of fear level we we probably sit right about here which is a little bit on the lower side of fear for high inflation and a credit crunch or a systemic credit risk or whatever or hawkish central banks we're actually not that fearful right now but not only are we not that fearful with fund managers right now look at these asset allocations here these show you now this is a little complicated to read and I got to be quick because we got PPI coming out so you're ready for this let's summarizes quickly see the Blue Line the blue line or stocks going up see the light blue section right here those are allocations fund manager allocations to equities are 32 percent underweight that means there's still a ton of money sitting on the sidelines to go into stocks which is insane in fact these fund managers are still overweight bonds see that little blue the little blue lines over here there's still overweight bonds and they're still overweight cash a lot this is insane how much fund managers are still underweight equities even though they've gone bullish long tech they're still way underweight equities which is mind-blowing to me you're underweight real estate and equities well we got to talk real estate as well as some real estate opportunities uh and then Global uh Global Tech Global that's different because you get the Emerging Markets built in there still low but a little bit more allocation to Global Tech compared to just American Tech so bottom line when you look at this fund manager survey what do you get while the fund manager survey is screaming at you that finally fund managers are realizing you have to go long U.S tech but they're still way underweight U.S tech there's still a lot of money sitting not just on the sidelines for cash but in bonds and I think as we start seeing real estate liquidations from institutions which we're starting to see you'll see more money flow into equities and that's all very supportive to equities even though things feel somewhat bubbly right now there's actually a lot of Tailwind still behind us which is insane
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