저자: JeremyGrantham/RonBaron · 외국인
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Grantham은 전쟁·인플레이션 역사를 근거로 인플레이션이 돈의 가치를 약 14~15년마다 절반으로 줄인다고 보며 채권 보유를 피해 왔다고 말한다. 1960년대 이후 다우는 1,000에서 34,000 수준으로 약 5배 오른 반면 GDP는 800억 달러에서 27조 달러로 커졌다는 장기 성장 논리를 제시한다. Baron은 테슬라를 자동차 회사가 아닌 기술·데이터 기업으로 보며 차량당 이익과 데이터 우위를 강조한다. 테슬라는 2030년까지 저가 모델 출시와 중국 파트너십으로 판매가 크게 늘 것으로 전망된다. 전기차 판매 비중이 2023년 약 18%에서 2030년 60% 이상으로 확대된다는 시장 전망을 근거로 제시한다. 영상 후반부는 리비안(RIVN)의 3분기 실적과 생산 가이던스 상향을 근거로 저평가 매력을 주장한다. 리비안 3분기 매출은 13.4억 달러로 전년 대비 149% 증가했으며 매출 대비 주가 2.41배 수준이라고 설명한다. 목표 가치 대비 약 29% 상승 여력이 있다고 주장하며 장기 투자 관점을 제시한다. 전반적으로 장기 낙관론이며 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명확한 예측은 제한적이다.
다듬은 글
I just want to know in this particular moment given where you may think the market is given where bond prices are I think a lot of people are really trying to rethink what's the mix of what a portfolio is even supposed to look like in this world given what's happening in Israel uh in Ukraine and the like are are you buying stuff what are you doing every day I'm con I am amazingly bullish and so basically in 1960s uh there was Vietnam War uh there was inflation uh there were assassinations of the presidents of the United States president of the United States uh there was assassination of Robert Kennedy assassination Mar King I was a pattent office examiner in Arlington Virginia uh and I went to law school at night and work in patent office at daytime and one day uh right after King is assassinated uh one of my friends I'm on one side of the office runs over say Ronnie come over here and I ran to the other side of the building all of Washington was on fire amazing so we got our motorcycles and drove you you're not allowed to we broke into the city driving around and came back but that was a city falling apart it looked like the country was ending there would been marches on Washington and with the market the Dow Jones was 1,000 the GDP was 800 800 billion that's now 27 trillion the Dow Jones was a th000 then it's 34,000 now it's five doubles five doubles in the last 50 years 53 years that means you double every 5 years every 10 years rather that means that's somewhere around seven right so basically the I think about it is that inflation whenever you have a war you have a pandemic uh you have to have inflation you have to have government has to pay for it and when the government pays for it then when you come out of it they have to pay it back the way they pay it back is not by paying down any debt they pay it back by making your money worth less so there's inflation so the way we think about things is that inflation is going to reduce the value of your money in half about every 14 or 15 years about four or 5% a Year's inflation that's my whole lifetime four or 5% some sometimes it's two sometimes it's seven but four or five% the number you would never buy a 2-year Bond or a 5year bond or a 10-year bond I I've never owned a bond the Tesla loving billionaire and CEO of Baron Capital Ron Baron brings an electrifying presence to an exciting CNBC squawkbox interview Baron's insights go beyond Tesla he vividly depicts the rapid growth potential of the entire electric vehicle EV Market early investors in Tesla have already seen profitable returns but Baron is convinced The Best Is Yet To Come he positions himself as the Helm of this exhilarating EV industry Voyage set to generate a new class of millionaires The Twist is that Baron's optimism isn't limited to Tesla he exudes a contagious enthusiasm inspired by the vast potential for growth across the entire electric vehicle Market in this stimulating video we delve into Baron's top Tesla pick and reveal another EV stock poised to capture a significant portion of the burgeoning EV Market the EV Revolution is just warming up with electric vehicles still in the initial phase of worldwide adoption the potential for growth is massive especially among top EV companies Baron encourages investors to shift their focus forward and zero in on EV stocks that could yield significant returns by 2030 in this High Energy race EV sales are expected to reach 14 million cars in 20123 accounting for a solid 18% of Total Car Sales looking ahead to 2030 prepare for a staggering change EVS are expected to dominate capturing over 60% of the total Car Sales Market this major shift Heralds not just an increase in sales but also substantial profits for pioneering EV manufacturers despite intensifying competition the industry is likely to consolidate in the future creating a special investment opportunity join us as we explore the compelling reasons to be optimistic about EVS examining the journey to capitalize on this trend and the possibility of becoming a millionaire with smart EV stock Investments now let's explore Baron's preferred Tesla followed by another promising EV Contender they really were trying to define the company as an EV automobile maker is that the way you think about this company I think about it as a technology company that's providing services to other their own company and to others they can't possibly be match by anyone else um they have data technology they make cars cheaper than when Ford makes one of these cars an electric car every car they make they lose $336,000 on $36,000 per car our company now makes about $8 or $9,000 in profit a car they were making $115,000 in profit of car but if they build a plant that cost $7 billion for a million cars that plant was making $15 million a year uh $15 billion a year on a $7 billion investment 15 billion on a 7 billion investment an ordinary Industrial company would make 15% on Capital 20% the most this guy's making his Capital twice a year now now he's making it once a year he's making $8 billion in a $7 billion plan so he's the lowest cost person everything about about the business is stting to drive prices lower uh right now they will be in a very in in the 1900s early 1900s the automobile companies were tremendous innovators uh no longer is the case in the 1950s they decided they were going to go for profitability and they outsourced all of their supply chain to their detriment and all these companies went bankrupt hundreds of them went bankrupt and now uh the way we're going is that their electric cars they drive um I guess they have about about 30 m a day 30 or 40 m a day and they have 5 3 million of them that are collecting data 100 million mil a day they're getting for data and then they're also getting compute that they're going to have more compute than anyone in the world in 18 months to begin Baron underscored Tesla's unmatched efficiency highlighting how its Advanced Data and Technology provide a Competitive Edge in cost Effectiveness in contrast to other car manufacturers Tesla is producing cars more economically attracting attention in the process Baron made a striking Revelation while traditional automakers like Ford lose $336,000 per car Tesla earns a profit of $8,000 to $99,000 per vehicle quite the financial turnaround but there's more Baron views Tesla's data prowess as a pivotal change with an impressive 100 million miles log daily Tesla's Tech is on track to surpass its Rivals the Tesla Fleet is effectively a mobile lab consistently evolving and strengthening its position and regarding the recent dip in electric vehicle demand Baron maintains an optimistic perspective attributing the decline to factors such as quality pricing and dealership issues he believes the current electric cars lack appeal and are overpriced however he's confident that Tesla's forthcoming model to will disrupt the market making EVS more accessible with a price reduction from $440,000 to $225,000 and then there's China Baron's excitement is Limitless he views China not only as a profitable Market but also as a key strategic partner China has invited Elon Musk to enhance its car manufacturing sector creating a mutually advantageous relationship with the impending launch of Tesla's model 2 Baron anticipates a significant sales boost potentially reaching an astounding 5 million units annually Ron Baron's enthusiastic stance on Tesla is genuinely stimulating encompassing remarkable cost efficiency technological leadership and a strategic alliance with China Tesla appears set for a thrilling path to suc success investors buckle up the Tesla story is just beginning the recent Market reaction to Tesla's Q3 figures presents a golden opportunity for long-term investors critics often misjudge Tesla as an overpriced car manufacturer overlooking its Essence as a tech innovator Tesla's diverse business model is crucial in the global shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy mirroring the success of tech giants like apple and Sony group although Q3 results might have disappointed some Tesla is committed to achieving a 50% annual ual compound annual growth rate cagr in vehicle production the company's dedication to Innovation drives its ongoing growth in Tesla's Revenue mix energy storage is becoming a key component with Q3 Revenue up by 40% year on-ear contributing to 6.6% of the company's total revenue this growing importance aligns with Tesla's goal to equal its Auto units Revenue in Asia Tesla and byd are leading the EV Market charge both companies are outpacing the competition with strong growth patterns BD's Q3 Triumph marked by an 82% increase in net income year- on-year highlights the success of its vertical integration strategy Tesla emulating byd is also enhancing its vertical integration a move that provides greater supply chain control crucial and industrywide challenges like the price Wars initiated by Tesla the EV Market's promise is further validated by projections showing EV sales will account for over 60% of Total Car Sales by 2030 a significant jump from the expected 18% in 2023 this growth boods well for leading EV manufacturers offering substantial returns for investors now let's shift Focus to the next EV standout rivan Automotive Incorporated ticker symbol rivm rivan emerging as a star in the EV Market positions itself as an enticing investment with positive developments and strong performance in the third quarter of 2023 as an EV firm balancing production growth and financial viability rivan stands out from its Rivals appealing to long-term investors rivian's Q3 report released on November 7th not only exceeded earnings per share expectations but also raised its 2023 production forecast unlike competitors such as Lucid Group which lowered its production Outlook and reported a yearly Revenue drop rivian shows resilience and strategic execution in its EV approach rivian's 2023 production guidance increased by 2,000 units leading to a total of 54,000 electric vehicles which is a 4% rise this update follows a pattern as rivian had previously upped its forec by 2,000 units the robust production growth in the first three quarters suggests rivan might surpass 56,000 units this positive trend is backed by the company's revenue report with Q3 bringing in $1.34 billion a 149% increase year-on-year while rivan isn't profitable yet its Financial indicators are improving the company's gross margins are quickly getting better with a minus 36% margin in Q3 a 135 percentage Point enhancement from the previous year this highlights rivian's focus on Financial stability amidst production expansion in cash flow terms rivan is showing a promising Direction despite a minus 1.1 billion free cash flow in the September quarter it marked a 36% improvement from last year this trajectory hints at the possibility of positive free cash flow by fiscal year 2026 indicating Financial robustness in valuation terms rivan seems undervalued compared to its large cap us-based Pure Play EV counterparts with a price to revenue ratio of 2.41 X it's the most modestly valued among firms with a market cap over5 billion the potential for revaluation is clear with a projected 29% upside based on a reasonable 3.1x price to sales ratio while Tesla leads in market cap and production volume rivan's impressive 121% production growth in the September quarter indicates it's breaking away from its competitors this trend positions rivan as an attractive investment Choice offering both growth potential and appealing valuation metrics so investors there might be another fantastic opportunity waiting for you don't forget to subscribe to the channel for more insightful updates on investment
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