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fundamentals are deteriorating demand destruction is Real China some of the numbers that have been coming out of China are astoundingly weak and of course zero covid is a reason for that but I do believe China's been building inventories uh and and the reason it has been doing so is it's using the uh Russian war it is buying oil from Russia at significant discounts and we don't know how long this window will be open the discounts reports are in the 30 to 40 percent range so we would not be surprised to see uh inventories much higher almost everywhere in the world because of the war in Ukraine and the fears about not getting energy supplies and China and India buying disproportionate amounts of oil from from Russia Russia doesn't have very many other places to of size to to sell that oil now in terms of demand destruction something interesting is happening here in the United States and probably elsewhere in the world many of you may have had this this same experience I was in California for the holidays and I had I was taking Ubers three Uber drivers were in Tesla cars and I was asking them about Tesla I found that curious and they said oh yeah we're renting our cars from from Hertz uh Hertz is now not charging us as much to to buy uh or to rent a Tesla and of course that's the preferred car later on we learned from Hertz that Hertz is doing this because it has learned that maintenance costs for a Tesla and I'm sure other electric vehicles are 50 to 60 percent below maintenance costs for gas powered vehicles now the reason this is important is because of a metric we monitor called electric miles traveled now Uber drivers are going to travel many more minutes of the day or hours of the day than we are in our personal cars which we just park and leave as we go to work so what this means is the number of electric vehicle miles traveled is starting to increase much more rapidly because of this Uber phenomenon and sooner even than we might have expected it is also very interesting to note that oil demand seems to have peaked in 2019 there has been a lot of demand destruction based on Rising prices around the world it'll be nip and Tuck to see if if we meet that 2019 number again now if we're right and I'll get into this in a moment that number is going to drop precipitously because of autonomous electric cars and so we believe that this notion of peak oil which we used to when we when we use that expression in the day it was all around Peak Supply we're running out of oil nowadays the phrase uh considered more often I would say is Peak demand and we do believe that we're in the process of peeking out in terms of oil demand at the same time here in the U.S we are moving toward record oil production and once again this year we believe we could be the largest oil producer in the world so again supply versus demand makes a price if you won't uh technology consumer discretionary or consumer services consumer services being fang-like that last year was horrendous anything in Innovation uh was horrendous how much actually happened on The Innovation front last year it was pretty astonishing and the market just ignored it completely now there are different reasons for these declines for consumer services of course we have the Facebook the Facebooks and the Netflix uh being disrupted tick tock's a big disrupter they're also now much more Hostage to the cycle advertising is one of the first line items cut during a recession and this is why we think we we started in a recession uh early last year because advertising fell off a cliff and that is a at least a coincident indicator if not a leading indicator so they're being disrupted now in other Innovation portfolios true Innovation portfolios the new new innovation those stocks had a a very bad year for a different reason they're not being disrupt disrupted in fact they are they are more often not than not the disruptors uh they were penalized because they're investing aggressively now uh and they are doing so because the opportunities associated with the five major Innovation platforms around which we have centered our research so robotics energy storage artificial intelligence and blockchain Technologies uh the they are ready for prime time they are taking off as I'm going to describe to you in a moment uh but the the winners are going to be those companies that are spending aggressively now especially because with artificial intelligence many winners are going to be in winner take most categories uh so we we want that but when the market is focused on one quarter and wants its profits now and its dividends now and the algorithms basically decide that anything uh without high profit margins or anything that disappoints on profit margins because of more investing algorithms they make none of these distinctions and they just Pummel these sorts of stocks truth will win out this reminds me very much of the late 90s for Value investors in the late 90s value investors look like they had had two left feet looked like they had gone dumb stupid and of course that was the Tekken Telecom bubble that ended badly and they were right after all today Innovation investors look like they have two left feet or that they've lost their brains but we are we are more convinced than ever that these Innovation platforms uh are evolving maybe faster than even we expected and we believe staying away from Innovation now is going to be as big a mistake as as falling all over other investors to try and up technology waitings in the late 90s uh so uh we again truth wins out
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