저자: MarcSebastian · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 방향성 없이 횡보하며 VIX는 하락 쪽에 무게, 실적 시즌 변동성은 제한적이라는 판단. 시장 상황: 주요 지수가 소폭 횡보 중이며, VIX 선물은 하락했으나 VIX 현물은 소폭 상승. 2650 부근(SPX)에서 당분간 머물 가능성을 언급. 실적 일정: Apple(장 마감 후), Microsoft(다음날 장 마감 후), Facebook(다음날 장 마감 후), Amazon(이번 주 후반), Google(다음 주), ExxonMobil·Chevron(금요일)으로 S&P 상위 10개 기업 대다수가 이번 주 실적 발표 예정. 옵션 전략: 실적 결과로 인한 큰 변동성은 크지 않을 것으로 보고 풋 매도(변동성 매도) 전략을 고려 가능하다고 언급. Apple 분석: 실적 전 스큐에서 풋 쪽 프리미엄이 높게 형성. 157달러 부근 스트래들 기준 약 8.5달러(약 5%) 예상 움직임. 개인적으로 강세 성향이지만 상승 베팅 옵션은 상대적으로 저렴하고, 하락 헤지는 비싸다고 설명. 하락 헤지 시 풋 스프레드나 풋 플라이, 상승 측면은 나비형 전략 고려 가능. 출연자 의견: 교육 목적이며 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시. 웨비나 참여 안내.
다듬은 글
hello there I know I'm good I'm Marc Sebastian founder of option pet calm and this is the option pit volatility stock market an option volatility report reminder this is for education purposes only shouldn't be considered a best advice option for SK tonight at 9:00 Eastern Time managing risk using options with me Marc Sebastian go to option pit comm slash risk 2019 to get yourself registered it's gonna be a good webinar make sure you get yourself registered speaking of getting yourself registered how about this market and we are at you know after a pretty decent software flat pancake II right now with the market basically kind of not doing it's not spinning its wheels VIX futures are off but the VIX itself is a little is up why well we've got a lot of earnings coming up Apple is after the Bell Microsoft is tomorrow after the bell Amazon is later in the week ace book is is tomorrow after the pal the only one next week is Google right now everything else all the major companies are kind of this week ExxonMobil is on Friday CVX so we'll have almost the top ten of the S&P done by you know what essentially amounts to to Friday so there's a lot of earnings to come out of this market and that's kind of what's driving stuff so what does that tell us about what's the xxb is doing well tells me the market does not see a lot of volatility out of these earnings it tells me that you know the SPX around 26:42 2650 is probably where it's gonna sit the next couple days and expectations for the VIX are that it's going to come down not go up looking at some individual names I'm you know we had some pretty decent of earnings last couple of days so all the indexes look like they're gonna spin wheels all day I'm interested in you know whether you know on some of this market softness it's worth it to look to sell some puts or do something like that because I think there's some gonna be some pressure on volatility I'd be a evolve seller you know digging into Apple itself they have earnings coming as I said at the top they've got earnings coming up let's look at that skew for earnings today and I'm just gonna briefly tell you about you know you know look at that curve there's pretty decent Vall bid if I go to kind of regular fab you get a better look and you can see that kind of upside and downside are all been and there's a lot of premium bid to the downside honing in on that straddle Apple is right around 157 and you know we're looking they're looking for almost a $9 move you know call it an eight eight called a eight and a half dollar move out of Apple that's a decent move that's you know call that 5% I think that that's a level that maybe make some sense based on where they've worn my gut is bullish on this and playing bullish is not very expected is relatively inexpensive compared to hedging on the downside if you're if I was looking to do some downside hedging I think I'd want to use a put spread of some kind or a put fly because of how expensive downside implied volatility is and on upside with implied volatility getting more and more bid I think there again some inexpensive butterflies that could be constructed I you know other than that again I'd remind everybody that I've got this webinar and I want you guys to come I hope everybody has a great day and you got questions you can email me market option or called me a to date trade zero-one have a good one
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