저자: MarcSebastian · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 중립~약세 경계. 카테르필라 실적 쇼크와 엔비디아 급락(-15%, 135달러)으로 S&P500이 약 1% 하락, VIX는 20 부근 재상승했으나 지수들은 전반적으로 강세 유지. 시장 개황: S&P500 약 1% 하락(30~31포인트), VIX 약 6% 상승 후 20 부근 회복. 주말 효과 포함. 1개월 차트에서 50일 이동평균선 부근. 변동성 지표: VIX는 80~90 구간이 지지선 역할을 하며 연속 하락을 막는 중. 과거 저점은 17 수준이었고 금요일 저점 약 17.09 이후 반등. 종목별 언급: 카테르필라 약 8% 하락(실적 미스), 엔비디아 15% 하락(135달러), 중국 이슈 언급. 'FAANG' 종목 강세 관측. 지수 전망: 주요 지수가 상대적으로 강해 긍정적이나, 50일선 및 9일 연속 종가 지지 여부 확인 필요. 오늘 종가 기준 지지 이탈 여부가 관건. 향후 일정: 이번 주 대형 기술주(애플, 구글, 아마존, 페이스북, 마이크로소프트) 실적 발표 예정, 목요일쯤 실적 시즌 윤곽 확인 가능. 내일 애플 실적을 주목하며 거래 기회로 언급. 출연자 전망: 변동성이 레인지 바운드될 것으로 보며, 실적 결과에 따라 방향 결정될 것이라는 중립적 시각. 거래 기회 측면에서 애플 실적을 주시하라는 입장.
다듬은 글
hi there it's Marc Sebastian the founder of option pet calm and this is the volatility report reminder this is for educational purposes only should not be considered investment advice options have risk its alter financial professional if you have questions well it's a day folks things are moving we got a pretty big big miss out of some earnings today so caterpillar is off nicely call it eight percent the big mess Nvidia everybody hates in video right now it's down 15% back to 135 and that is really what's what's driving everybody lower you know there's just a lot of a lot of ugly here folks so overall markets are down pretty big take a look at the SPX off about 30 31 not not a huge hairy deal but also a decent amount of dough over 1% VIX with that when including the weekend effect is making a nice move back above 20 we'll see whether that lasts my gut says no but you know here we are let me get this down to one month and you can see we're right at where kind of that 50-day moving average is and Vols getting a little bit of a pop you know I feel like earnings are always kind of win some lose some these are a couple the first kind of big companies reports so maybe we are able to drive things there but I'm not so sure that you know it's gonna make a huge decision one thing I would note is look at look at V vixx it's up six it's making a big pop now it's had problems getting the the giant huge candle and the big fear pop that that we've gotten in the past but you know back above ninety after being near 80 again you know it's really been unable to miss to get itself consistently below eighty one eighty you know we had a touch in the 70s but eighties been a really good floor for V vixx just like in vixx Seventeen's been kind of a floor for the index you know on Friday at the low we got down about 1709 kind of the same that the previous time and then we immediately get a nice pop here so we're seeing vol continue to move continue to be strong and it'd be very range bound that said you know all the indexes look relatively strong and that is that is the key you know all these indexes look really pretty significantly strong and that's that's a good thing so watch today if we really can break you know we've not had a close below the fifty one two three four five six seven eight nine it's been nine days so that's coming out a real hold so watch the volume watch how we move and you know keep an eye on those faying names a lot of people are paying attention to those because they have been you know they've been kind of strong but I don't know in general as I look at the market I think we're looking at a market that today maybe one office obviously we have a ton of earnings coming up right just about every company reports this week I Apple Google Amazon Google's next week Amazon is this week Facebook Apple Microsoft I mean the list goes on and on so we're gonna have a real clear idea of what earnings season is gonna look like by Thursday so I would just be prepared we got Apple tomorrow I think that's going to be the first one that we're gonna spend some time looking at in chat cuz I think that pretense presents itself a decent opportunity for trading all right everybody I hope you have a great day and I will talk to you soon
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