Bullish on MU, AVGO & Bearish on GOOGL

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알파벳(GOOGL) 실적 후 하락세에서 대규모 풋옵션 매수(3월물 180 풋)가 포착돼 약세 베팅으로 해석. 유튜브 광고 성장 둔화와 AI 투자 부담이 부각. 마이크론은 시티그룹의 HBM 경쟁 우려 속 15% 조정 후 8월 125 콜 매수로 반등 베팅. 브로드컴은 8월 말 실적 전 9월 135 풋 매도(풋 매도 프리미엄 수취)로 중립~강세 포지션 관찰. 전반적으로 옵션 흐름 중심의 분석.

다듬은 글

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01. welcome back to the wash list it's time for options corner where we analyze unusual options trades that we're seeing throughout the day we welcome in Tom white host of fast Market here on Schwab Network and you of course are looking first up at the biggest Story one of the biggest stories today and that is all about alphabet Google um which is has been down and it's down 3 and a half% roughly the whole NASDAQ is down 3% like last week it was down 4% it was the worst week since April and so I mean we're really seeing pressure that being said and as you focus on alphabet uh you found a bearish trade that you're going to tell us about Tom please expand on all of this yeah maybe somebody doubling down on these losses that we're seeing today if you looked at the report that Google had they grew Revenue 14% year over year I think the weak part of the report was YouTube advertising Revenue which came in higher than a year earlier a billion dollars higher but it was a slower growth pace than what the street had anticipated I think that was a concern moving forward if you look at their Cloud unit uh That Grew uh surpass tw10 billion uh in quarterly revenues uh a billion in operating profit so on that side of their business they're still doing really well they still control 90% of the search market so the revenues are still there if you looked at some of their other bets unit which uh includes wh weo that brought in about 365 million that's nothing compared to what their overall Revenue growth was of 6462 billion but then they also announced a multi-year investment more into wh of about five billion so the CEO uh you know Sunder Pai came out and basically stated that hey we have to spend on AI it's not going to be you know a creative right away but they have to make those Investments and I think maybe that during that call a lot of investors and Traders kind of got spooked by that uh will uh this investment into AI pay off like uh maybe a lot of people had had expected because you look at the chart there of Google alphabet it's off of its all-time high still up 24% so far this year even with the pullback that we're seeing today but somebody uh one of the options trades that kind of stuck out to me was out in the March uh cycle of next year of 2025 uh so 240 days to expiration a Trader bought some 180 strike puts over 20,000 of those were bought up average debit about $16.10 so they paid a pretty hefty option premium on those by paying 610 the break even for this Trader where they start profiting below 16390 over the next 240 days that's about 55% below the current share price so they're buying some in the money puts all the way out in March Nicole so this is a longer dated uh option position you know I don't know if it's speculative I don't know if it's uh hedging maybe uh some downside risk for a large shareholder it sounds more like a speculative type of trade because they're buying these in the money puts but yeah put volume about three times normal daily average volume that we've seen over the last five trading sessions also so a lot of calls traded in there calls still out trading puts in there today uh but uh this one kind of stuck out to me that uh this Trader thinks we're going to continue to see some weakness over the next eight or 9 months yeah heavy volume heavy put volume in particular and what's interesting is that you did see the growth year-over-year portending to the ad Revenue that went to YouTube right for example you talked about it being better year-over-year but just really didn't meet expectations and you know Tesla too which said you know that they had the growth year-over-year record Revenue year-over-year but also didn't meet the expectations and had some profitability issues so you really got to knock it out of the park to get up arrows here in this environment that's why I was scratching my head with with AT&T being a winner let's talk about uh Micron which you noted that c uh City group actually talked positively about this name the semi space it's probably more fairly valued than some of the other names in the group and in fact you found a bullish play that you wanted to tell us about Tom yeah Micron uh if you look at it that's pulled back about 15% so far this month so it's been under pressure and this was one of the big Winners uh previous to this month over the last year you can see that runup that it had now City group did come out with a note that they were positive on the semiconduct uh semiconductor industry as a whole but they initi initiated a negative watch on Micron uh technology anticipating headwinds over the next month competition heating up in the high bandwidth memory space uh they they they uh they did state that Samsung probably going to get approval for their high bandwidth memory ahead of Micron and uh they start producing that for NVIDIA maybe that takes away from some of that Topline Revenue growth that microns expected and a lot of Traders had expected they did yesterday uh release a new SSD uh chip uh fastest AI workload performance and power efficiency chip that they have so trying to dig more into that AI space because the amount of memory needed for AI chips as opposed to uh standard chips about four to five times more so they're starting to ramp up production of these new initiatives in the chip space uh using that high bandwidth memory but I think with this pullback that we've seen today over 2% 15% so far uh this month uh Trader came out and I think he's trying to buy a dip here uh because we don't have earnings for about two months in this one so this isn't an earnings play but out in the August uh 125 strike calls Trader bought 10,000 of those average a debit of about a133 these are far out of the money to the upside uh so that break even of 12633 over the next 23 days uh that's about 133% above the current share price now this Trader had an existing position on because they did it as a spread they were long the uh August 135 strike calls so they sold out of those those weren't working out well for them at all uh but they reset this position in the August 125 strike call so somebody expecting over the next 3 and 1 half weeks we're going to see some uh maybe a bounce in this name all right so we'll wait and watch and see if we get that bounce indeed last but not least we're taking a look at broadcom and this name actually recently hit all-time highs of 185 um earnings are our way out to the end of August and you found a neutral to bullish trade here for us explain that yeah so just a couple days ago uh on this uh segment uh Nicole we talked about it Trader taking a bearish stance in uh avgo they were buying some 153 strike puts about a month out those are working out well for him and the stock down 5% today uh so they took that bearish stance in there uh but Stock's still up about 38% this year it's uh one of the AI winners that virtualization software uh they're making things um more efficient on the Hardway Hardware side for all these data centers that's supposed to be their big growth area they're the lead in semiconductor verticals and data center Center networking chips uh market share and asic's that infrastructure custom chip Chips built for the uh AI workloads so a lot going on positively here and that's why you saw the stock recently hit those alltime highs they've got earnings on the 29th uh in there but on the flip side of what we saw earlier this week on a bearish uh unusual option activity uh we saw some more unusual option activity but out in the September cycle so you're going to capture that earnings event where they're actually selling puts so this is a strategy I think a lot of people might be using uh over the last couple days especially today where you're seeing a pullback in the nasac of 3% but hey maybe I want to own these shares or maybe I want to take advantage of the pullback uh to put something on so one that stuck out to me today was in that September cycle they sold 10,000 of the 135 strike puts uh for an average credit of $2.35 on this one so that break even for this Trader where they start losing money is all the way down at 13265 over the next 52 days or 58 days that's about 14% below the current share price in there so a neutral to bullish type of stance where if it remains above the 135 strike into September expiration they just get to keep that option premium but this is definitely one of those strategies people that uh that maybe want to get into a stock that's pulled back pretty significantly might want to start looking at because you take advantage of a cushion to the downside you still profit if it goes up you profit if it remains where it is and it can even go lower uh but you give yourself that nice cushion to the downside before you start getting hurt on it and implied volatility levels are really elevated at this point that allows you to collect more option premium but that's that's what this Trader's uh probably banking on that we're going to see uh maybe at least some consolidation if not a reversal higher in broadcom yeah and what's amazing is you said you noted the trade from last week the 153 level and that Trader getting it right uh you know the kudos to that person whoever got that right and you know the Bulls make money the Bears make money and the pigs get slaughtered so thank you always Tom white appreciate it thanks very much good to see you for options Corner every single day