저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 바이든 행정부는 주식시장에 무관심해 보이지만 시장 영향은 제한적이며, 주가에 더 중요한 것은 정책 예측 가능성과 저금리·유동성이다. 트럼프 시절에는 대통령과 경제보좌관(래리 커들로)이 주가에 집착했고, 감세 기대가 시장에 우호적이었다. 바이든은 주식 투자 경험이 적고 시장 지표에 관심이 낮다는 점이 대비된다. 정치 구도: 의회가 분열되어 있어 대규모 법안 통과가 어렵고, 분열 정부는 대체로 주식에 긍정적이라는 해석을 제시했다. 다만 바이든의 인프라·일자리 계획과 법인세 인상 가능성은 불확실성 요인이다. 민주당은 2조 달러 부양책을 정당 투표로 통과시킨 바 있어 워싱턴이 생각보다 덜 마비됐을 수 있다. 자본이득·배당 과세를 일반소득으로 분류하는 극단적 인상은 시장에 큰 타격이 될 것이나 현재 검토 대상이 아니라고 봤다. 연준 독립성: 트럼프가 파월 연준의장을 공개 비난한 것은 기업인들을 불안하게 했다. 바이든은 파월과 대화하지 않겠다며 연준과의 역사적 거리두기를 유지한다고 밝혔다. 이는 다소 부조리하지만 예측 가능한 태도라고 평가. 기업 관계: 트럼프의 기업인 공개 비난과 과학 경시는 CEO들과 충돌을 낳았다. 바이든 아래서도 CEO들은 증세를 원치 않지만 기후변화 대응 필요성은 공감하는 분위기다. 종합 전망: 금리 저위·유동성 풍부가 시장의 핵심 동력이며, 대통령 개인은 시장에 대체로 무관하다는 견해. 다만 바이든 인프라 법안이 통과되면 입장을 바꿀 수 있다고 덧붙였다. 결론적 핵심: 시장이 가장 원하는 것은 평온함과 확실성이며, 바이든이 정책 면에서 예측 가능하다는 점만으로도 주식 매수 의향을 높인다고 봤다.
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homework a one of my t's not just entertain but to educate and put it all in context call me 1-800-743 cbc or tweet me at jim cramer look does it matter that the president united states doesn't seem to care one bit about the stock market on a day where the s p 500 hit a new record up 0.42 while the dow advanced 57 points and the nasdaq jumped 1.03 percent i think it's worth considering how the biden market differs from the trump market a year and a half ago wall street was in heaven we had incredibly low unemployment with no inflation we had terrific earnings too until the pandemic hit we bundled the response and then the market got shelled throughout that period though one thing never changed we had a president who graded himself based on the performance of the averages when the dow surged after the march bottom last year shortest bear market in history by the way well trump cheered at every milestone on twitter and in his little interchanges with reporters to him it meant he was doing really well he even picked larry kudlow my former kudlow and kramer co-anchor as his chief economic advisor which tells you a lot about him speaking of someone who served as a judge on the apprentice for several years i've got some insight here while trump never followed individual stocks that closely he knew the market mattered and he delighted in asking me questions about what to buy i was telling by verizon party get hurt on that one as for trump's chief economic advisor i work with larry kudlow for three and a half years larry never met a tax cut he didn't like when we were on cuddle and kramer together i pushed night after night for a dividend tax cut something that would encourage people to own stocks larry pushed for a capital gains tax cut because he well he's hardcore uh he's a hardcore believer in economics worked in the reagan administration ultimately president bush passed both of these tax cuts although given how the bush economy ended up i'm a little ambivalent about taking credit the point is under trump we had a president and a chief economic advisor who were enthralled with the stock market they wanted it to almost they wanted to go higher to almost an obsessive degree all right now how about the new administration i don't think president biden pays much attention to the market at all now i've known him for years i'd often see him on the train going south when he hopped on at wilmington go to the capitol biden is one of the most convivial souls i've ever met one time back when he was a senator he saw me walk by him and stop me to talk about the stock market first he introduced me to the conductor because he was right there he just asked the conductor to play a game of conflict then biden got right down to it he said that he found my obsession compelling but sadly he couldn't take advantage of it in part because he didn't have the money to be in the stock market i told him look i understand that that was difficult plus there were potential conflicts for as a senator but it was never too late to buy an index fund he said he'd take my advice but from the the disclosure forms he knew he was the poorest person in the senate number 100 the bottom i remember saying that's too bad why didn't seem to care at all so let's see the last president was obsessed with the stock market the new one could care less the last one bragged about how rich he was the new one brags about being the poorest guy in the senate the last one reveled in being a real estate mobile the new one probably points out that he's a union man those are some big differences yet it hasn't mattered one bit and yet we go over it constantly how is it possible that it means nothing all right well let's pull this apart or unpack as they say and then double click it they they say this stupid stuff and we'll call cops i listen to if we unpack this thing here's what we get i need you to come to grips with why it hasn't mattered well we had an incredible rally when trump took over we had another incredible rally when biden took over rally rally first you could argue that this stuff is just branding the presidency is important but the congress paralyzed bipartisan rank or there's not a lot of the white house can do it either direction when there's divided government it's tough to pass anything unless the crisis becomes so palpable that both parties are willing to compromise like we saw with the bailout a year ago we like divided government means nothing gets done it's good for stocks right now we keep hearing about biden's infrastructure plan slash jobs program and the possibility that will raise the corporate tax to pay for it given how tight things are in the senate i think there's a really good chance we won't get a tax cut then again the democrats were able to pass a 2 trillion stimulus package on a party line vote so maybe washington's a little less paralyzed than we imagined of course if biden can effectively double the tax rate on capital gains and dividends by classifying them as ordinary income which is what i thought he might do well that's a different story but it's not there that would hurt the stock market it's not even on the table second no matter how pro stock market trump was his endless tormenting of fed chief jay powell made a lot of business leaders nervous because the fed's supposed to be an independent agency the idea is pretty simple if politicians can control monetary policy they'll almost never raise interest rates because it's political suicide when the president's out there tweeting who is our biggest enemy fed chairman powell or chinese president xi well that doesn't make me want to buy stocks worse even though trump's the one who made pal the chairman he quickly started bashing him as quote a powerful golfer who can't score someone who was too conservative too cautious on inflation then last year when powell grasped the full extent of the crisis before anyone else did he was well ahead of the president trying to save the economy but there were no supportive tweets from the oval office hmm meanwhile biden says he hasn't talked to jay pal once since he's been sworn in doesn't plan on talking to him either because he wants to maintain the historic separation between the presidency and the fed okay absurd in some way but at least a little predictable finally third trump's erratic behavior toward business towards individual business people and his disrespect for science collided with nearly every ceo i know that was less of a problem before the pandemic but it became much harder to ignore once covet hit as for biden most ceos don't want higher taxes but they also don't want a president who berates them on twitter and they don't want the government to ignore climate change i know look as many executives told me after the camera stops about climate change and say look i got children i can't take his position i got children i can't take this position in the end you can make the case that this whole discussion is moved what really matters is that we've got low interest rates and high liquidity i come back and say don't kid yourself in terms of the market i think the president is largely irrelevant though i'll take that back if biden can pass his two trillion dollar jobs program so what does matter calm the market loves calm it loves serenity wall street wants certainty even when most of these guys disagree with biden they like that there's no surprises with this guy the bottom line that certainty factor in that alone is enough to make people more willing to pay up for stocks even when the new president's a union man who clearly favors labor over capital and used to point out that he's the poorest guy in the senat
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