Fed will hike rates sooner, but bull market is on for 2021: Jeremy Siegel

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결론: 강세장은 2021년까지 이어진다고 보며, 금리·인플레이션 상승 우려는 있으나 지금은 주식을 줄일 때가 아니라는 견해. 시장 전망: 시그널 교수는 4~5%대 강한 인플레이션이 예상되며, 연준이 점도표보다 빨리 금리를 올려야 할 것이라고 봄. 그럼에도 강세장은 연말까지 지속될 가능성이 있다고 봄. 차입 관련: 인플레이션이 금리 상승보다 높다면 3% 수준 차입은 여전히 유리하다는 논리. 연준 정책: 연준이 결국 자산매입(테이퍼링)을 줄여야 하며, 그 시점에 10~15% 조정이 나와도 매수 기회일 수 있다는 진행자 의견에 대해 교수는 경제가 매우 강해 그런 조정은 가능성이 낮다고 봄. 자산 선호: 장기채는 더 불리하고 현금은 가치가 떨어지므로 부동산·주식 등 실물자산 선호. 리스크: 연준이 인플레이션에 강경해질 시점이 오면 그때는 주의가 필요하다는 조건부 경고. 파월 의장이 재임명을 원해 현재 정책이 온건하다고 평가. 출연자 전망: 교수는 현 시점 강세장 지속 전망, 단기 조정 가능성은 낮게 봄. 진행자 Josh Brown은 교수 의견에 동의하며 8개월간 보유를 권유. 대상 자산 예측: 주식 시장(S&P500 등)은 2021년 상승 지속 관점, 금리(미국채 10년물)는 상승 전망, 원/달러 및 기타 개별 종목 언급 없음.

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01. today the wharton professor jeremy siegel he is a noted bull however now he says he's a little worried professor good to see you anytime a bull like you says they're a little worried i need to talk to you what's up well i'm not i'm not worried yet scott uh i i still think we're in a strong bull market but i think interest rates and inflation are going to rise uh well above what the fed has projected uh we're gonna have a strong inflationary year i think four to five percent but the fed is going to have to hike sooner than certainly the the crazy dot plot that it put out last month um but in the meantime enjoy this ride it's gonna it's gonna keep on going well for how long for how long how long does it go i i mean i can see it or not you know i could see it toward the end to the end of the year um because even though interest rates go up if inflation goes up more it still pays to borrow right i mean you know three percent borrowing shouldn't be scary if you have four percent inflation so uh uh you know it's you're still going to gain by that sort of borrowing but eventually the fed is just gonna have to step in and and say wow uh you know we're just having a little bit too much inflation and that's the time uh to be cautious i i would not really be cautious right now i still think bull market is on for 2021.

02. well okay so josh the professor says you got eight months now to to let this run let it ride josh brown and then you know you can worry about it later but certainly not now you agree with the professor man the professor is one of my all-time favorites jeremy so good to see you so let me let me throw this out to you yeah yeah let me throw this out to you i'm curious what your thoughts are um arguably there's going to be a moment this year where the fed has to they won't use the word taper but they have to state the obvious which is there is absolutely no reason for them to be buying tens of billions of dollars worth of financial instruments every month we don't have liquidity issues anywhere in the system and none of that is going to put waiters back at their jobs like i don't care how how how many aaa rated corporate bonds you buy none of that's going to put people back to work so we all know that and that'll be before we talk about rate hikes so the question is isn't that the buying up if that produces a 10 or 15 percent tremor in the s p isn't that like a classic buying opportunity like isn't that what you if it did have happened i don't think it will i i mean really you know just stopping the buying uh while the economy is so super strong and look at the pricing power that corporations are going to have um and people are going to say yeah so they stopped buying i mean is that where am i going to put it's again where i'm going to put my money long-term bonds become even worse cash is going to depreciate you've got to be real assets got to be real estate or stocks they're both real asset and you're going to turn around and say okay they're tapering but where am i going but right right now what you're saying is i mean i've heard people this week throw out goldilocks professor and they they talk about the liquidity in the market there's cash on the sidelines there's pent up demand there's earnings expectations which continue to go up the fed's not doing anything anytime soon do you agree with that nothing soon i mean they're go you know honestly you know powell is playing the game with biden now because he wants to be renominated february of next year um and i think there's a game here that's why he's being so compliant i do think the fed recognizes the danger but we have to say about who is going biting on a real point and i think he wants that job and once he gets that job for another four years he could be much tougher on inflation you