저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 마이클 버리의 대규모 풋옵션 공매도 베팅을 비판하고, 캐시 우드는 채권금리 하락과 원자재 가격 하락을 근거로 성장주 반등을 예상한다. 버리의 베팅 내용: 최신 13F 공시에서 버리가 테슬라 풋옵션을 34% 늘려 약 7억 3천만 달러 규모, 장기 국채 ETF 풋옵션을 53% 늘려 2억 8천만 달러 이상, 아크 혁신 ETF 풋옵션 약 3천만 달러를 보유한 것으로 나타났다. 영상은 풋옵션 구조(행사가·프리미엄·수익 계산 예시)를 설명한다. 버리의 주장: 과잉 인플레이션과 성장주·암호화폐의 대폭락을 예상하며, 2008년 이상의 폭락을 주장한다. 캐시 우드의 반박: 주식시장은 2021년 3월 이후 상승했고 인플레이션을 크게 우려하지 않는다는 점, 닷컴 버블과 달리 강세장이 가치주 등으로 확산되었다는 점을 근거로 든다. 채권시장 분석: 채권금리 하락은 경기침체 공포 또는 예상보다 낮은 인플레이션을 의미하며, 두 경우 모두 성장주에 유리하다고 본다. 원자재·물가 지표: 목재 약 65~70% 하락, 구리 10~15% 하락, 원유 10% 하락을 제시하고, 달러지수는 5월 89에서 현재 93으로 상승했다고 한다. 맨하임 중고차 지수도 매달 하락 중이라고 언급한다. 전망: 우드는 향후 3~6개월 내 이러한 신호가 확인될 것이라 보며, 지금이 성장주 매수의 최적기라고 주장한다. 버리는 주택시장 위기는 정확히 예측했으나 혁신 분야의 기본적 성장 동력은 이해하지 못한다고 비판한다. 리스크: 혁신 산업이 현재 GDP에 미치는 영향은 제한적이며, 전기차 등은 아직 전체 생산에서 작은 비중이라는 점을 영상도 인정한다.
다듬은 글
let's get on with the video michael bury and kathy wood have just accomplished the inconceivable the two well-known investors are now battling to death in michael bury's latest sec filing he disclosed that he was shorting over 30 million dollars of ark's innovation etf via put options kathy wood was not just perplexed but also enraged she then went on a rampage totally dismantling michael bury's case against her for years short selling has been a concern in equities connected to innovation short sellers according to elon musk are jerks that want us dead they're always trying to make up fake stories and exaggerate any bad news kathy wood has had her fair share of skepticism but she is now up against the king of short sellers michael bury this video will go into the hot drama of kathy wood's recent declaration of war on bury as most of you are aware michael bury successfully shorted the housing market during the 2008 collapse and profited enormously as a result he was one of the four short sellers portrayed in the film the big short furry is now launching what he believes will be the big short since he believes the largest crash in history is on the horizon yes michael bury has predicted a larger fall than the 2008 recession the dot-com boom and the great depression furry stated in his most recent 13 f filing that he just doubled down on its wager against the whole stock market this wager on america's demise was made via put options a put option is simply a contract to sell 100 shares of a stock at a set price in this example we are selling 100 tesla shares at 700 per share the seller of the put options must purchase those 100 shares at the fixed price of seven hundred dollars if the current price of tesla stock is six hundred and fifty dollars per share we pocket the difference for those one hundred shares which is comparable to five thousand dollars in profit in the first place these put option contracts are expensive which of these is the premium in this example if the premium was thirty dollars per share purchasing this put option contract for 100 shares of tesla would cost us three thousand dollars by deducting the profit from executing the contract from the cost we receive a net profit of two thousand dollars which is comparable to a sixty percent overall gain on our investment bury boosted his stake in tesla put options by 34 implying that he now owns contracts for approximately 730 million dollars in tesla shares in addition he boosted his put options on a government bond etf by an astonishing 53 percent this covers more than 280 million dollars of the bond etf that he is shorting furry also holds over 30 million dollars in ark's innovation etf through put option contracts furry's put options on tesla stock bonds and arks innovation etf shouted that he believes kathy wood is doomed kathy of course disagrees with bury's put options since she recently went on a twitter rant against michael bury by effectively stating that bury has not observed numerous major signs pointing against him he is practically admitting that he has not noticed several significant indicators pointing against him to provide some context michael bury warned a few months ago that hyperinflation is on the way and he believes that growth stocks and cryptocurrencies will face the biggest crash ever kathy's argument begins with a general view of the stock market and the economy and ultimately ends with heated criticism for bury in particular in other words michael bury's bet which he initiated a few months ago is not paying off as expected bond yields continue to fall as investors expect lower than expected inflation furthermore stocks have continued to rise since march of 2021 indicating that the equity market isn't concerned about inflation some may argue that our current position is analogous to the dot-com bubble but this is not the case kathy notes that unlike the tech and telecom bubbles this equities bull market has expanded beyond the innovation strategies that bloomed last year to value and other stocks that had trailed the bull market laying the scene we believe for another leg up in innovation strategies since the beginning of 2021 growth equities have underperformed in contrast to value companies such as legacy auto energy and financials most investors may believe that ark's underperformance in 2021 is a bad omen but kathy understands that the reverse is true instead of an exponential rise in growth stocks like the dot-com boom we've seen growth stocks climb first in 2020 followed by an increase in 2021 implying that the rotation will likely return to growth shortly reducing another significant gain in growth stocks according to kathy the equity market is likely to favor disruptive innovation tactics once more when headline inflation breaks and or recession worries rise kathy sees the bond market forecasting two outcomes here right now the bond market has continued to rise in recent months causing bond rates to fall at the same time this suggests that investors are bracing for a recession or that inflation will be lower than predicted in the event of increased recessionary fears investors are flocking to bonds causing the bond market to rally and bond yields to fall this would be beneficial for growth stocks because growth-oriented companies must borrow money more frequently so growth stocks would rise significantly in the first scenario lower inflation is the second probable cause for the recent bond rise consumer prices are rising across the board as many of us have seen firsthand yet numerous indications are indicating that inflation is beginning to moderate one of these indicators is commodity prices kathy says that since mid-may several commodities prices have been breaking timber down 65 percent to 70 percent copper down 10 to 15 percent in oil down 10 percent an anticipated rise in the dollar is also detrimental to commodities prices the u.s dollar index has risen steadily over the last three months from 89 in may to 93 today this along with declining commodity costs points to decreased inflation kathy further stated now the mannheim used vehicle index a leading index for new car sales is falling the mannheim used vehicle index is a pricing index that tracks used automobile prices this indicator has recently been decreasing month after month indicating lower inflation all these short-term deflationary indications along with long-term deflation from innovation and disruption point to lower than expected future inflation lower inflation forecasts encourage investors to purchase bonds leading bond rates to fall low bond rates are once again advantageous to growth stocks kathy says that if the bond market is accurate one or both of the possibilities we discussed would be evident in the next three to six months as a result if kathy wood is correct the greatest moment to purchase growth companies is right now causing berry to lose a significant amount of money even though michael bury correctly forecasted the housing crisis kathy feels that bury is currently incorrect she stated to his credit michael bury made a fantastic call based on fundamentals and foresaw the impending disaster in the housing and mortgage markets kathy added i don't think he understands the fundamentals that are driving exponential growth and investment possibilities in the innovation space this may appear to be gibberish and you would be accurate in that regard innovation isn't causing much deflation right now and it's unlikely to cause much deflation shortly for example evs are growing rapidly but they still account for a small percentage of total vehicles produced right now as a result gdp and revenue growth are unlikely to be significantly influenced by innovation in the short term however once exponential growth occurs an innovation accounts for a large portion of the us gdp macroeconomic indicators such as inflation will be heavily influenced let us know in the comments what your thoughts are and i'll see you in the next one
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