저자: JaySmith로ScionAssetManagement설립자) · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리는 미국의 인플레이션과 MMT 정책이 대형 자산 붕괴를 부를 것이라 보며, 영상은 이를 근거로 다양한 자산의 하락 위험을 경고한다. 핵심 주장: 버리는 2000년 닷컴 버블, 2008년 금융위기, 게임스톱 급등을 예측해 큰 수익을 냈다고 소개되며, 2000~2008년 연평균 28.6%, 2016년 이후 Scion 펀드 연 22.8% 수익을 언급한다. 거시 근거: 미국 정부 부채/GDP 사상 최고, M2 사상 최고, PMI가 팬데믹 고점을 넘어서는 등 경기는 회복 중인데 통화 공급과 차입이 계속되는 점을 문제 삼는다. 소비자물가는 전반적으로 오르는 중이다. 비교 사례: 1920년대 초 독일 하이퍼인플레이션과 비교한다. 당시 투기 열풍과 범죄 증가, 브로커 업무 적체 등을 예로 들며 현재 미국 상황과 유사하다고 본다. 자산별 전망: 버리는 비트코인, 전기차, SaaS, 밈주식을 2007년 주택시장에 비유하며 주식, 암호화폐, 원자재, 금, 부동산 대부분이 위험하다고 본다. 암호화폐는 레버리지 강제청산 연쇄로 최대 95% 폭락 가능성이 언급된다. 대안 제시: 일반적 조언인 금·부동산 등 인플레이션 헤지 자산보다 버리 입장에서는 이들도 정부 압수 위험 등으로 불리하다고 본다. 인플레이션기에는 원가 대비 가격 결정력이 큰 유료 도로(톨브리지) 같은 기업이 유리하고, 원가 상승에 취약한 포드 같은 자동차 기업은 수익성이 악화된다고 설명한다. 결론적으로 버리는 인플레이션이 급등해 광범위한 금융자산을 파괴할 것이라고 예측한다.
다듬은 글
michael bury anticipated the dot-com boom the 2008 recession and the growth of gamestop with each short-term occurrence murray gained millions if not billions of dollars michael bury now believes that the largest crash in u.s history is imminent and like every prior forecast murray is putting enormous money on it if burry's prognosis is true the stock in cryptocurrency markets may plummet by up to 95 percent this video will explain why burri is wagering billions on an impending financial market catastrophe when michael bury makes a big prediction unlike many other market collapse forecasters you must take him seriously bury has hundreds of millions of dollars at stake and a stellar track record furry produced huge sums of money for his clients from 2000 to the first quarter of 2008 averaging a return of 28.6 percent every year and if you thought burry was a one-time wonder think again since the beginning of 2016 his new fund scion asset management has produced a 22.8 percent annual return these figures are remarkable especially given his 14-year investment track record given this knowledge it's critical that you at least listen to what bury has to say even if you have any preconceived beliefs huge institutions and strong government officials did not want you to see what i am going to demonstrate in reality immediately after the sec visited michael bury his twitter account was suddenly wiped prompting me to crawl through massive quantities of deleted tweets in order to uncover murray's most unusual warning ever michael bury isn't only predicting a stock market catastrophe he's also predicting america's demise murray believes that the approaching collapse will have an impact on nearly every asset including cryptocurrency gold equities real estate bonds and many more but before we get into why burri believes every asset class will crash we must confront the elephant in the room which is inflation almost everything in bury's big gamble is linked to an impending inflation in the u.s dollar according to bury the u.s government is courting inflation with its mmt tinged policies rapid debt gdp growth m2 rises and retail sales pmi stage 5 recovery trillions of dollars and more stimulus and reopening to stimulate demand while labor and supplier chain expenses soar murray's whole thesis revolves around the devastation caused by modern monetary theory abbreviated mmt mmt is a macroeconomic theory that asserts that the government should borrow or print money until their economy reaches full employment in other words during a recession the government should raise the money supply of their currency until the unemployment rate returns to normal levels the federal reserve employs mmt now although there are still serious issues regarding the idea to begin with united states debt as a proportion of gdp is now at an all-time high furthermore m2 money which is a measure of the entire money supply has hit all-time highs all this money creation and borrowing is taking place when businesses are already rebounding as seen by the purchasing managers index or pmi in short the pmi is an index that measures whether or not businesses are in excellent shape in recent months the pmi has surpassed three pandemic highs as a result many individuals are questioning why the united states government is continuing creating money consumer prices are already rising across the board as supply networks struggle to keep up with demand michael bury argues that this situation is quite comparable to the early 1920s hyperinflation in the german market according to bury prices in germany were steady and both business and the stock market were thriving the exchange rate of the mark versus the dollar and other currencies actually climbed for a while and the mark was temporarily the strongest currency in the world on the brink of inflation germany's position is comparable to what is now taking place the u.s dollar is the world's strongest currency consumer prices are rising but remain largely stable the stock market is thriving the value of the us dollar has also risen in recent months bury then went on to say side by side with the affluence there are areas of destitution as more individuals stayed on the outside of the easy money gazing in but unable to enter the crime rate increased simply said only the rich in germany had access to the easy money investments thus those in poverty began to resort to crime as a solution because these investments were easy for purpose according to the report almost any type of firm could generate money business failures and bankruptcies were infrequent the boom halted the regular processes of natural selection by which the non-essential and ineffective would otherwise have been pointed out with such significant individual and institutional investment activity german brokers were unable to keep up with trade documentation as a result the robin hood of germany boris has to close down on occasion in order to work on the company's backlog of deals what i just described is quite comparable to the current scenario in the united states in which many assets are highly speculative and have hit all-time highs burley believes we are in the midst of the greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things by two orders of magnitude birdie believes that when the speculative bubble bursts severe consequences will follow in other words germany's financial market crashed as a result of the speculative bubble however german citizens did not lose their money as a result of the collapse they had already lost it due to speculation and inflation but they were unaware of it at the time bury is effectively stating that germany's financial market was eight years in the making before it exploded this information may appear alarming but there are steps that investors like you and me can take to prepare a conventional investor would advise you to invest in inflation-protected assets such as real estate diamonds gold commodities and collectibles to prepare for inflation bury on the other hand believes that investing in these assets would be a stubborn move bury is basically saying that during a crisis the government will want to seize control of everyone's assets including gold and bitcoin some argue that because bitcoin is decentralized the government will be unable to regulate it nonetheless bury sees greater issues with bitcoin crypto has a lot of long-term promise but individuals have taken on far too much debt in the market as a result burri believes that the crypto bull run will be short-lived since there is so much leverage in crypto that a tiny fallen price may set off a tremendous downward spiral this is due to the fact that when one crypto investor in margin loses money they will be margin called causing prices to fall as prices fall other investors will be margin called as well causing prices to fall even more as a result additional investors are margin called forcing prices to fall once again this negative cycle might potentially continue until everyone is margin called according to bury if you don't know how much leverage is involved in the run-up of cryptocurrency you may not know enough to own it bury's prognosis is intriguing in that he feels nearly everything will be severely impacted bury claimed that today's fads such as bitcoin electric vehicles software as a service and meme stocks are comparable to housing in 2007.
according to burri nearly all equities cryptocurrencies commodities gold and real estate are doomed so if everything is about to fall where should we put our money during an inflationary period the objective is to invest in businesses that maximize capital costs while minimizing input costs in an inflationary environment a toll bridge would be a fantastic thing to buy because you've laid out the construction costs warren buffett famously stated you created it with old money and you don't have to replace it a tow bridge not only has a lot of pricing power but it also has very low to no input expenses people will not quit using toll bridges because of the price increases people on the other side may quit purchasing ford vehicles if the costs double not only that but because ford's input prices rise during inflationary periods the automaker is unlikely to remain profitable to summarize michael bury believes that inflation is poised to take off and destroy a wide range of financial assets are you prepared if bury's prophecy comes true
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