저자: CharlieMunger · 외국인
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Munger는 미국 자본주의의 장기 성장을 강조하며, 1930년 이후 미국 평균 생활수준이 약 6배 올랐다고 주장한다. 경기침체와 위기는 반복되지만 자본주의의 회복력으로 극복되며, 향후 100년간 10~20년의 힘든 시기가 있겠지만 현재보다 훨씬 나아질 것이라 본다. 이후 대화는 핵무기와 대량살상무기 확산의 위험으로 옮겨간다. 영상은 주식 투자 전략이 아니라 거시적 낙관론과 핵 위협에 대한 논의가 중심이다.
다듬은 글
well the competition was very weak in your early days and I don't think the competition is as weak now but Charlie in 2008 and N there were all kinds of high IQ yeah highly experienced investment professionals I mean thousands and thousands and thousands of them and you invested at the Daily Journal company and some equities at X that are worth what extra 4 ex now or something like that that's right yeah well I call that opportunity but maybe routine to him but but I sat for a lot of years before I did it but it still became available oh yes I I but you were drowning in Opportunities when I first knew you you were not waiting for I wasn't drowning in money unfortunately no what you what you lacked was money yeah now we got money and no ideas okay I don't see how anybody can be other than enthus about this country if you look back to 1776 or 1789 whichever one you want to dated from uh you know it has been the most extraordinary uh economic period in the history of the world in fact if if you go back I was born on August 30th 1930 now if somebody had come to me in the womb and said let me tell you what it's like outside now yeah the stock market has just crashed but you haven't seen anything yet 4,000 banks are going to fail the Dow Jones average is going to go down to 42 it was 381 back just a little bit before you were conceived and and it's going to go to 42 they're going to close the banks for a while we're going to have 25% unemployment we're going to have the Dust Bowl in the midwest The Grasshoppers are going to take over uh you know it' be like in that Woody Allen movie where he says go back go back and and I they uh all this happened since August 30th 1930 is that the standard of living of the average American has increased 6 for one six for one you know that's absolutely incredible I mean you look at centuries where nothing happened for the average person I mean Century after Century so we have a system that works magnificently it gets gummed up periodically and it always has troubles I mean you know I my my father was very anti-neu deal so my sisters and I sat around a dinner table from the first we can remember hearing how things were going to go to hell as a matter of fact my father-in-law uh told my wife to be and her mother that he wanted to have a talk with me before we got married and he was very much on my side so I was not in a panic about this or anything but I went down to his house shortly before the marriage and this wonderful man Doc Thompson sat in a chair for a couple of hours and he said Warren he said I just want to tell you that you're going to fail but it's not your fault and he said you and Susie my daughter you know if you starve she would have starved anyway I mean it it is not your fault it's because you know it's it's it's because the Democrats are in you know and they're going to take the country down the road to Communism and you know and and just don't worry about the fact you're going to fail because and this went on for quite a while uh and then he blessed me and we got married it was a happy ending but ever since when I got out of school in 19 in 1951 the two people I admired the most in the world my dad and Ben Graham both said you know you've got a good future but don't start in stocks now because there's never been a year when the Dow Jones average has not ended up uh below 200 and it's above 200 now it's much too high and if you start now selling stocks to people they're going to have bad experiences and so why don't you go wait a while and go work in the Alo National Bank or do something Park yourself on the sidelines uh there's always negatives the country always faces problems I mean this country went through you know it went through a civil war you know it it it's gone through all kinds of things but what happens you know we have a few lousy years from time to time I we've had probably 15 recessions since the country started and we will always have a list of 10 or 15 things at the start of the year that will tell you why you know this country can't possibly work well but all I can tell you is that what doesn't do it in a straight line but the the power of C capitalism uh is incredible I mean you know that's that's what is bringing us out of this recession I mean monetary and fiscal policy uh have some utility and certainly in the fall of 2008 the government was needed in a huge huge way it could do what was it was the only one that could do what was needed but if you look at the history of the United States you know probably half of our recessions have occurred during uh we'll say in the 19th century when people didn't even know what fiscal or monetary policy was I mean it what happened was that excesses would come in and then the the resus of power of capitalism would would uh set the country back on the right on on a stronger growth pattern and that's happened Time After Time After Time and the game isn't over I mean it is not like the potential of of America has been uh what has happened is the rest of the world has caught on to some extent so you're seeing you know some State capitalism in places like China and they're they're turning economies loose that have been dormant for centuries uh but it's not because the people are smarter it's not because they work harder it's just because they have tapped into a system that works marvelously over time and I will tell you in the next hundred years you're going to have probably 15 maybe maybe as many as 20 lousy years but we will be so far ahead of where we are now that that that will be unrecognizable Charlie well I think you can go back a lot farther than that you know Europe Sur survived the Black Death Or about a third of the people died uh the world is going to go on that's wildly optimistic for Charlie have you got anything more encouraging than that to say Charlie I don't know I kind of I understand a little bit of Dick Holland's point of view by the way I've known him a long time he aced me out of any hope of being what was can you can you bring yourself to say anything optimistic well I have a little bit of of uh a Twist on that and so I would say that you can be cheerful even if things are slightly deteriorating and that's a very good quality to have I have a personal saying that that has always amused me I say the politicians are never so bad you don't live to want them back well on that note of wisdom well the answer is the world is flipping a coin every day as to whether people who can literally destroy the planet as we know you know uh we'll do it and and unfortunately um uh the major problem is with people that have large stocks of nuclear weapons in I know a man who said I know what I'm going to do if there's nuclear war I'm going to crawl under the table and kiss my ass goodbye you yeah well it's the great problem of mankind along with proliferation or or the spread of other weapons of mass destruction in the chemical and biological field the genie is out of the Bott bottle on nuclear knowledge and uh more and more people are going to know how to do enormous damage to the rest of the human race uh as the years go by you'll have a given percentage of the population that are psychotics or megalomaniacs or religious Fanatics or whatever and will wish ill on their neighbors and the choke point will be presumably will be materials and to a degree Del liability uh I think there people generally associate weapons of mass destruction threats these days with with terrorists and Rogue organizations of some sort and not so much with with with Nations but I I regard both as being enormous threats to the to the future of mankind and uh we have not made much progress in that respect we should be doing everything possible to reduce access to materials uh and I've even had a few thoughts on that which you can look up on the nuclear threat initiative probably on the we website and got a proposal actually that might Reduce by a tiny bit the rationale at least for all kinds of Nations having highly enriched uranium and that sort of thing but it's it's the it's it is the primary problem of mankind if you've got six and a half billion people you're probably going to have on the world you're probably going to have close to twice the number of people who wish ill on their neighbor than you had when you had three billion people and uh for a long time if you were a psychotic or something you could pick up a stone and throw it at the guy in the next cave and you moved on to bows and arrows and rifles and Cannon but for Millennia the ability to inflict massive damage was quite limited no matter how crazy you were and since 1945 when Einstein said that this that the the atomic bomb as they called it then uh has changed everything in the world except how men think that was a comment made shortly after Hiroshima uh we live in a world where exponentially uh has experienced exponential growth in the ability to afflict harm on somebody else and we haven't gotten rid of the nuts or the people who want to do it and it is whether it's Iran or you name it or whether it's terrorist organizations or whatever you know we live in a very very very dangerous World on that that is getting more dangerous as we go along and we've been very lucky since 1945 you know when the Cuban Missile Crisis came along in the 60s you know it might have been 5050 uh I think we were lucky we were dealing with kwf and we were lucky that Kennedy behaved the way he did but we were lucky and uh Charlie and I talked a lot about it in the 60s at the time but it's uh it won't go away and you would hope at least in the United States that we have an Administration whether it's Republican or Democrat where that's at the top of the agenda trying to figure out a way to minimize uh that risk you can't eliminate it it's it is out of the bottle but we we've got to it should be Paramount to minimize the risk that we really get into something that involves uh you know deaths on a scale that nobody's ever contemplated before Charlie yeah well you talk about deaths on a scale that people have never contemplated before people have recently figured out that the population of NE Mexico probably had a population decline of 95% caused by European man bringing in his pathogens and it was a pretty big civilization that went through that little knole
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