저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 블랙록 CEO 래리 핑크의 발언을 인용해 미국이 이미 경기침체에 들어섰을 가능성과 관세의 물가 상승 압력을 강조한다. CME 기준 다음 회의 금리인하 확률은 약 56%로 제시되며, 인플레이션 지표(govflation 기준 CPI 등)와 고용 악화(10월 24만 명 감소, 실업률 4.2%)를 근거로 든다. 10년물 금리 변동성이 크다고 지적하며, 핑크의 '매수 기회' 발언은 자산운용사 이해관계에 따른 것이라고 비판한다. 경기 하방 리스크와 추가 20% 하락 가능성을 언급한다.
다듬은 글
Black Rockck CEO Larry Frink is saying the quiet parts out loud and exposing what others are saying about the economy. But the interesting aspect of all of this is not that he is blaming Trump and the tariffs. It is what many of us are believing based on the economic data that we are going to dive into later on in on in this video as to why we might be potentially in a recession already.
But first, let's dive into what Uncle Larry is hearing from many of his counterparts about the overall economy. Larry Frink has said now that many business leaders already believe that the US is in a recession. The asset management executive also sees the likelihood that the Trump administration trade policies caused upward pressure on prices.
So, he's saying that not only are we in a recession, but the tariff policies that Donald Trump has implemented could potentially be the reasoning for these increased prices. Now, we're going to dive into later on why that might not be the case and what all we're seeing with this crazy volatility in the market.
Because yesterday we saw an absolute bloodbath in the market and today call your ex just like my man at unusual whales says. We saw all these lovely green candles all over the place. So green you can't even see straight with this. Right. So, but let's get back to what Uncle Larry is saying and what his buddies are disclosing to him.
I mean, look at this ugly mug. I mean, if I had a haircut like that, I'd be thinking we're in a recession as well. What is holding on stronger? Larry Fin's hairline or the US economy? It's tough to say here, folks, but he said, and I quote, "Most CEOs I talked to," let's zoom in a little bit on this for you guys.
He says, "Most CEOs I talked to would say we're probably already in a recession right now." One CEO specifically said that the airline industry is a proverbial bird in a coal mine, which in reality he actually meant to say canary in a coal mine. And I was told that the canary is sick already. So the airline industry is obviously showing some cracks if Larry Frink is already saying this, which means that travel is down, the consumer is spending less.
and that there's some issues with the overall market or at least the underlying economy. And we'll dive into some more data points here later on. But let's get back to think that he's saying the asset executive said that he thinks the tariff policies that Trump could put upward pressure on inflation, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Well, well, well. Is it difficult that the Federal Reserve is going to cut these interest rates or has it become more likely than not that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates? Larry, it makes you think with this market volatility, with everything going on, with the political pressure that Donald Trump is now putting on Jerome Powell, are we going to see an interest rate cut?
Well, the CME Group is a great pro probability and percentage of all of this for the target rate cuts and it's looking at literally just about a month away from here. Look, I did this in the live stream yesterday and many of you saw as I refreshed it, it went from 30 to 60%. We've dropped a little bit less, but it looks like we've got a 56% chance that we are going to cut interest rates and ease within the next meeting partially because of like I said what we're seeing here.
What we're seeing is Larry Frink coming out and saying that, you know, we might already be in a recession, but on top of all that already of might already being in a recession, he believes that we could fall farther. We could have a bigger fall from grace potentially looking at an extended fall by 20% amid the US recession worries.
The tariffs will reduce consumption. CEOs see no chance of five interest rates cut this year. Why do they see no chance of five interest rate cuts? Well, many CEOs probably see what we are seeing on Main Street. That inflation is not under wraps. One of my favorite websites and as you guys will see as we continue to go through these live streams is govflation.com.
Why? because it looks at the CPI percentage based on what they report. It looks at CPI, real return, GDP, and money supply based on the government's data, what they report currently. And then it looks at what they used to report based on the calculations that they were using in 1982. So prior to any changes in these calculations post gold uh post gold era.
So we see that inflation is reported at 3.0 in January. Well look at this bad boy here 10.67% in Janu or in December which was at 2.9%. So, we're seeing this CPI increase. We're seeing real return decrease even though we're reporting a positive increase. We're seeing GDP grow even though GDP is shrinking year over year.
And we're seeing the dollar supply slightly grow month over month. And it continues to extend. This gap continues to grow. I mean, we peaked at, you know, almost 18% CPI not too long ago. So, we're still recovering from those facts here. We're still recovering from massive amounts of inflation. And so these CEOs see what we all see that there needs to be either interest rates cuts or something, but something is going to break within this market because not everything is all peaches and daisies.
This is not a strong consumer market like many of us have been led to believe, have been led astray to believe. But you know the there's the leader of the world's largest asset manager, right? Larry Fank, Uncle Larry has said that more of a buying opportunity than a selling opportunity in the long run and did not pose systematic risks.
Look, Larry Frink will say anything to pump his own bags. Let's be brutally honest here. the guy does anything he possibly can to pump his own bags and get more of those assets under management. So, you know, he's looking at this and saying, "Hey, it's a buying opportunity. Do not sell, right? Don't be selling off in this kind of market because things are positive, right?
Larry Frink is trying to sway us into a positive belief of all this, but in reality, there's a lot of cracks that are starting to surface here, and we're going to go over a few of those here in a second. But Larry Frink is going to do everything that he can to pump his own bags. Even though he's prefacing it with that doesn't matter.
We can't fall another 20%, that doesn't mean we can't fall another 20% from here, too. Frink was among the first Wall Street executives to weigh in publicly about the market meltdown. Right? But let's get back to the point at hand. Are we in a recession? Right? We've seen this definition change. First, it was about, you know, overall growth in the market.
You got to see multiple quarters in a row of no growth. We saw that they changed. They went into Marian Webster and told them, "Hey, we need to change the definition of recession because we're not in one, allegedly." Right? But let's see what Google's telling us. A recession is a sustained period of significant economic decline characterized by a downturn in economic activity, often visible in production, employment, and real income lasting longer than a few months.
Now, we're going to look at in uh employment here in a second, but let's check out the signs of the potential recession, the signs of what we're seeing, the massive amounts of volatility that we continue to see swing up and down and up and down and up and down. The massive amounts that we are just seeing go back and forth.
We're seeing the 10-year take swings like crazy. The 10-year yield literally going over a 10% swing in literally a day. It is absolutely crazy that the amount of volatility that we're seeing in the 10-year yield and we see it even higher than what that screenshot has currently. So, we see the 10-year yield sky skyrocketing flight afternoon delight absolutely shooting up.
Look at this thing. This is insanity. the volatility, the spike up that we're seeing from here. You don't see spikes like this very often, folks. And to this extent, so this is something to take note of because, you know, the 10-year yield is something that Trump and his team look at because they want to refinance that debt.
They want to try to get the debt for cheaper. So, they're going to be continuing to look at these types of things, right? So, the 10-year yield they're looking at very closely. The one thing, the one unique thing I am looking at very closely is the jobs market because from all accounts it looks like the job market is not strong.
But the jobs market from all of this seems to be something that is uh you know rumored that it's not doing super super well. But if you look at the jobs market here right what is the overall effect of the job market on the overall economy? Well job growth in the labor market allegedly picked up in March.
At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked up by to 4.2%. So with all of these numbers, are we seeing a strong labor market? Wall Street seems to think that we have a strong labor market, but Main Street seems to think the otherwise. So if you're looking at these metrics, the job market investors want to know if the labor's market's continuing strength has staying power because of the non-farm payrolls just keep on going down and down and down and down.
This doesn't seem like a strong labor market to me, folks. So what we're seeing is is that the perception of the labor market is waning and the reality is is everybody is getting fearful for what is potentially happening. The headlines, the weak job markets coming out here, right? The October saw a loss of 240,000 jobs, the most jobs lost since December 2007.
So, it's absolutely crazy what we're seeing here of these job markets not necessarily being the strongest. And then we're seeing Larry Frink saying the quiet parts out loud. I'm going to continue to do a lot of these live streams here, folks. So, hit the like button and then hit the subscribe button with the bell notification so you guys know when I am doing these live streams.
I appreciate you guys all tuning in as I'm going to be doing daily market updates on what all is going on here. And subscribe and follow along for more.
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