A dovish Fed pivot next week could see investors move out of FAANG stocks, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

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결론: 시장은 과열 신호가 있으나 다음 주 FOMC 이후 완만한 조정 가능성 정도로 보며, 이익 실현은 건강하다는 입장. 시장 흐름: 이번 주 초반 강세 후 후반 약세, 나스닥 소폭 조정. 빅테크(넷플릭스·테슬라 실적 이후) 매도 및 섹터 로테이션 진행 중. 이익 실현: 기술주·FAANG 수익률이 연초 대비 크게 올라 이익 실현은 건강한 현상이나, 반드시 시장 하락을 의미하지는 않음. FOMC 전망: 다음 주 FOMC를 비둘기파적 pause로 예상하며, 이 경우 금융 여건 완화 수혜 종목(산업재·금융주)으로 자금이 넓게 퍼질 수 있다고 봄. 다음 주 실적: 다나허, 비자, 코크, 보잉, 몬델리즈 등 실적 발표가 경기 둔화 우려 속에서 중요하며 가이던스가 핵심이라고 언급. 과열 여부: 시장이 과열 상태로 200일선 대비 13% 위에 있어 조정 취약성은 인정하나, 조기 고점 단정은 과하다는 입장. 기술적 분석가 Mark Newton은 조정 신호에 주의를 요구. 인플레이션: 투자자들은 임금 때문에 인플레이션이 끈적할 것으로 우려하지만, 코어 PCE 하락 속도가 시장 예상보다 빨라 금리 고점 인식이 바뀔 수 있다고 봄. 조정 폭: 현재 조정은 S&P500 기준 수백 포인트 수준이며, 기술적 조정(10%)에는 못 미치나 약 5% 눌림은 가능하다고 봄. 전략: 강세를 보이는 그룹(산업재, 금융, 에너지)을 유지하며 눌림 매수 대상으로 고려. 다만 방어주 강세가 지속되면 조정 가능성이 커진다고 경계. 출연자 전망: 단기 조정 가능성은 열어두되 중장기 상승 기조는 유지하는 입장이며, 금리 인하 기대에 따른 시장 확대를 기대.

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01. let's get into today's market action with our first guest he's the man the Bears love to hate fun strats Tom Lee the Dow isn't up and it looks like maybe the Dow closed Higher by like 3.3 points that's that's about the closest I've ever seen it yeah I mean there it is Tom Lee um so let's look ahead to next week because that's when the action gets started again I wonder if it's a pretty key test next week for Market breadth especially since this week we had a pretty strong start and a relatively weak uh finish earnings from danaher next week Visa Coke and Boeing Mondelez Thursday are those important uh yeah I mean earnings really matter because one you know there's a lot of concern that you know the FED hikes have slowed the economy and you know our company is able to deliver numbers and then keep guidance that's going to matter a lot um but of course as you know there's a huge macro event next week as well yes yes of course that fed decision something in your notes though I mean made me raise an eyebrow you say we also have to recognize stocks have advanced sharply in the past month so profit taking is healthy Tom you profit taking is healthy here uh yeah I think profit taking is healthy because I think that's going to be a part of the investor mindset you know investors who've been involved with tech and Fang uh are enjoying pretty stupendous returns year to date now it doesn't mean that when they take profits they have to necessarily exit the market but to me next week is a story of well if the FED surprises us in a way because they're it's more of a dovish pause um I think investors are going to look for uh ways to sort of find stocks that rise on easing Financial conditions and they may not come back to the thing they might stick with tech but they might broaden out into Industrials and financials so yes profit taking but doesn't mean the market has to go down and to your point I mean we did see the NASDAQ take a breather today we did see some of those big Tech big or end this week the big cap Tech names uh in General sell off in part because of earnings over the last couple days with Netflix and and Tesla this rotation one of the other questions that's getting raised right now is if we're overbought and we're due for a pullback or even a correction your thoughts uh I mean the Market's definitely overbought um you know we're 13 above the 200-day moving average uh in the past that's a sign of a strong Market but it does it is also a market that's vulnerable to to bad news so I I'm kind of sympathetic to the view that there are signs of a correction that's what Mark Mark Newton our technician wants us to be alert to but on the flip side I think there are too many who are quickly calling this a top and that that puts me to Camp that we might whatever weakness we have may end up proving to be shallow especially given we have a huge fomdc fomc decision next week location that we're going to see another rate hike next week this is importantly given the fact that we do have data like PC at the end of the week what does that mean for the disinflation narrative that is playing out in the market and I know you've been speaking to uh well I I do think investors are still skeptical that there's disinflation you know we have many conversations with our Institutional Investor clients and they talk about how inflation is going to be sticky because of wages and it might stick at four percent for far longer but we're finding the Glide path to core inflation and core pce you know could actually undershoot what a lot of people think over the next few months and so I think that's one of the upside stories that as soon as inflation softens at that pace you know fed officials themselves can actually start to breathe easier and I think it causes many investors to rethink higher for longer so you say a couple hundred points worth of a correction well it's not really a correction I guess if it's only a couple hundred points in the s p five percent we'd need more than that for it to be technically a correction but you know a pullback of around five percent would be possible uh do you recommend rotating into um some of those other names cyclicals versus the larger Tech names that have done so well this year uh yes to an extent I think it's important to stick with groups that are showing strength uh because we know that those are going to be groups that could end up having dip buyers so uh that would put Industrials financials uh you know I mean I think wanted that thing and energy of course but what makes us a little bit wary is some of the strength this week has been in the defensives and I wonder if that's more of a reflexive action but you know if the defenses keep strengthening it John that would put us you know put the market more likely into a correction uh camp but I don't think we're at that point yet