저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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중앙은행이 2% 인플레이션 목표를 내세워 저금리·양적완화로 부채를 떠받쳐 왔고, 그 결과 인플레이션이 누적되어 왔다는 주장. 공식 CPI는 실제 물가 상승률을 과소평가하며, 실제로는 훨씬 높은 물가 상승을 체감한다고 주장. 보험료 38% 인상 등을 사례로 듦. 자산 관련 구체적 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
inflation has been the problem the entire time except that Central bankers and governments relied on inflation as the solution to their problem in fact for the last decade the one thing Central Bankers seem to agree on whether it was in Japan or in Europe or here in the United States they agreed that the problem with inflation was that there wasn't enough of it we just didn't have enough inflation prices were Rising too slowly and that was a problem that the central banks were determined to solve they were going to do whatever it took to increase the inflation rate up to 2% per year because 2% was what they claimed was the Holy Grail of inflation that inflation must be 2% prices must go up by 2% every year and if they don't well this is a huge problem and the central banks need to solve this problem with radical monetary policies even if it meant negative interest rates they would do that in order to make sure that the cost of living went up by 2% per year now to average people this would sound absurd why does the cost of living have to go up by 2% a year and if it only goes up by 1% a year what why is that a problem why does it need to go up faster than that most people would rather the cost of living go down if food got cheaper people would like that if their rent went down everybody would love that if your landlord said hey we've decided to cut your rent this year nobody would object to that what if you know you go to the gas station and the prices are lower good news what if College tuitions went down what if medical bills instead of going up what if they went down right everybody would love that everybody likes it when the things that they want to buy the things that they need to buy become more affordable so why was it a problem for the central banks that the stuff we needed to buy wasn't going up in priced fast enough and it needed to rise faster and first of all where did they get this 2% figure why is 2% so great why not 1 and 1/2% what's wrong with that or 2 and 1.2% I mean why is 2 and 1.2% too high and 1 and a 12% too low why is 2% just right and and the answer is it's not 2% is not better than 1% it's worse 1% is better and negative 1% is better than positive 1% when it comes to prices but the way this 2% Target came about was years ago many central banks began implementing 2% inflation as a ceiling what the central Bankers were telling everybody was that we're going to keep inflation below 2% if it gets up to 2% we're going to take action because 2% is our ceiling we don't want it to get above 2% a year so as long as it's below 2% everything is okay gets to 2% or higher we're going to spring into action to make sure it comes back down well somehow along the way that 2% ceiling became a Target where central banks said we need to get up to 2% that was never their mandate no Central Bank had a mandate of making sure inflation was 2% it was just making sure inflation was below 2% that didn't mean that if it was 1% they had to try to get it up they would just say oh it's 1% that's great it's below 2% we succeeded but they completely changed why did they do that it was all a pretense the central Bankers were faced with some serious economic problems that they didn't want politicians to have to deal with countries had run up a lot of debt and the governments really didn't have the ability to pay all this debt and so what central banks did was lower interest rates to make that debt affordable by lowering the interest payments on that debt and that allowed governments all over Europe governments in the United States to continue to pile on debt without having to make any difficult political choices of raising taxes or cutting spending but also because central banks kept interest rates so low it wasn't just government debtors that were able to go deeper into debt it was the private sector corporations individuals everybody loaded up with debt and the more debt everybody took on the more the Federal Reserve and other central banks felt compelled to keep interest rates artificially low because allowing interest rates to rise would have caused a financial crisis a lot of people would have defaulted on their debts including governments and so the central banks kept interest rates low and kept printing money now they called it quantitative easing but quantitative easing is basically a euphan ISM for inflation that's what it is when the Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing for the first time in 2009 what it really decided to do is monetize government debt and created inflation that's what quantitative easing was all about it was about inflation and in fact the central banks Justified quantitative easing and negative 0% interest rates because they said these policies were necessary to raise the inflation rate inflation was too low so central banks recognize that these policies were in fact inflationary because they were designed to cure the problem of too low inflation but that problem didn't exist all they did was pour gasoline on an inflation fire now inflation didn't really rear its ugly head in a way that became a big problem until last year and that's because these monetary policies operate with a lag and what surprised me was the length of that lag the inflation that we're experiencing now in 2022 really started in 2009 2010 we haven't even caught up to the inflation we created in 2020 uh that's coming but there's all this inflation in the pipeline another reason that that inflation did not become as big a problem is because the way the money entered the economy in many cases was through the banking system through the financial markets so the prices that were impacted the most by inflation were stock prices bond prices real estate prices and so people didn't mind when inflation was making them richer in fact people like that politicians like that everybody likes a bull market so when inflation is first entering the economy and the first impact it has is on asset prices nobody's worried about it and so the central Bankers kept creating it the other factor that was important was the fraudulent way that governments measure inflation particularly here in the United States I'm more familiar with our CPI but I think other cpis in other countries are similarly flawed by Design the increase in consumer prices the way it's officially measured is not nearly as great as what is actually experienced by consumers when they're buying goods and services so if you have an official measure of inflation that says prices are going up by one and a half percent a year it's possible they're going up by four or 5% a year in reality and so when the government says hey we don't have enough inflation we got to get that 1 and a half% inflation up to 2% what they're actually doing is getting that 5 or 6% inflation rate up to 10% now where we are today you've got Nations all around the world reporting official inflation rates at 8% 9% 10% or more which means The Unofficial actual rate of inflation is probably somewhere between 50 and 20% so inflation is a enormous problem all over the United States look I just got the other day my uh new uh premium for my homeowners insurance policy for my house I have in Connecticut and it was a 38% increase over the prior year I mean that's that dwarfs what the government says inflation is and the reason my insurance premiums went up so much is because they they said the cost of replacing the house if it burns down has gone up so much because of the increase in raw materials and labor costs it's going to cost 38% more to rebuild my house than it would have cost to rebuild the same house a year ago that's what's going on in reality and I've experienced in my personal life and so have so many other people that email me price increases that dwarf what the government claims is the increase
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