저자: DaniloPerotti · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 All Weather(영구) 포트폴리오 개념을 소개하며 분산투자와 타이밍 배제를 강조. 마코위츠 현대포트폴리오이론과 랜덤워크 개념으로 시장 예측의 어려움을 설명. 인플레이션 헤지 자산(금, 물가연동채, 원자재)과 저비용 패시브 투자의 중요성을 주장. 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
I said I was going to bring you the main lessons I've been developing throughout my journey, and today I think the main principle is great, but the main foundation that I've observed is repeated in several major investors. Last week we had a tweet published by Ray Dalio, for those who don't know, he's the world's largest fund manager.
He has Bridgewater, a very famous company that's the largest head fund manager in the world, and he posted something that has a lot to do with the principle I want to bring to you, which is the all- weather portfolio, or permanent portfolio, a portfolio resistant to all seasons, to all times. Anyway, for those who don't know me, I'm Danilo Perotti, founder of Mercurius Crypto, a crypto consultancy that for now is only crypto, but soon we'll be going into the traditional market as well.
Basically, on this channel I document my journey and try to bring some lessons I've been learning about economics, investments, and even entrepreneurship, that we've been learning along this journey. I'm an economist, graduated from the Faculty of Economic Sciences. Actuarial science and administration at USP, right, the famous FEA, and today I want to talk to you about the following: I've already prepared it here, and I want to relate it to Harry Markowitz, one of the most famous guys in the world of economics, the text by Ray Dalio, and the book I'm currently reading, which is "A Random Walk in Wall Street," right?
But focusing a lot on this, right? This was 100% motivated by Ray Dalio's tweet, where he talks about the concept and mechanism of an all- weather portfolio, or a portfolio resistant to all times. Basically, what we're talking about... First, I need to start by explaining who Markowitz is, right? For those who don't know, he's an extremely famous economist, okay?
Where am I centered? Why not? In the last video I made, I didn't stay. Yes, but he's an extremely famous economist who is responsible for the modern portfolio theory. Basically, what does he talk about? In an investment portfolio, the best thing to do is to include uncorrelated assets. So, for example, you put an asset that performs well when inflation is high, say, gold, for example, some kind of inflation hedge, along with some asset that performs poorly when inflation is high, for example, fixed-income bonds, etc.
Right? Yes, this means that, depending on the moment you're in, each one will compensate for the other's negative performance . This leads us to have a very extensive theory that your performance improves. I'm not going to delve too deeply into Markowitz's portfolio theory here , but basically I just needed to get this specific concept across, because Ray Dalio talked about it quite a bit.
If you want to delve deeper into this portfolio theory, I suggest this video by Fernando Kobuti; just search for "modern portfolio theory". What is Markowitz's theory? He explains it very well, it's really, his video is great. Yes, I really like Kobuti's work here. I have n't met him personally yet, but I hope to someday.
But this video here is the best video here that explains a relatively simple theory in 8 minutes . But let's get down to business. What is Ray Dalio, the biggest, the owner of the biggest asset management firm or the biggest hedge fund in the world, talking about here with this concept of an All Weather Portfolio?
Yeah, man, basically this text here is an amazing text, okay? It's super short here, I'm not going to go through all the parts, I just picked some highlights here. But basically, he says that he's at a point in his life where he wants to take principles that can help people invest better and pass them on.
And he himself says that this is one of the most important investment principles, right? " Principles Inclusive" is the name of a very good book by Ray Dalio. I think we , wait a minute. Eh. This one, oh no, this one isn't, it 's not from, it's not The Principles, but it's a very good book by him too, Changing the World Order.
Yeah, man, a really good guy, he writes a lot here too, for the financial market. So, if you have a chance, read this book, Principles; it's really, really good and very easy to understand. But basically, he's talking about one of the most important things here, which is the concept of an all- weather portfolio, okay?
Which is basically very important, especially given the times we're living in, right? During risky times like now, right? A time of political instability, instability even in terms of world peace, right? We don't know what's going to happen with the war in Iran, etc. So, he says that this is very important for today.
And what does he say is the most important thing for you to have, right? The most important thing for an investor to have in a portfolio is. In other words, the most important thing for an investor to have in their portfolio is that the portfolio is well diversified, okay? Well, this makes it possible, according to Markowitz's second portfolio theory, to get more return for less risk, okay?
And the second one, which is one of the most common mistakes I see here, at least when working in consulting and investment education, is that it does not require market timing. What does that mean? You don't need to get the timing of the market right. This is very, very curious, because it completely undermines the theory of day trading, or trying to position yourself before everyone else , trying to be smarter than the market.
Why does he say that? Because first, most people believe that cash is the safest thing you can have, money in hand. Big problem, right? And here he's even talking about bonds, fixed income, and so on. The main point is that you lose out when you have very high inflation. So, sticking only to a very safe investment isn't worth it for him here, right?
Because you will lose purchasing power during periods of high inflation. So, why the issue of market timing, right? Okay, so we can't lose purchasing power, which is why we're going to have a portfolio that won't be 100% safe, okay? We're going to mix things up there, we're going to have a mix of alternatives that we're going to invest in, and we're not going to do market timing.
Why? Because almost every investor—and here I'm talking about the owner of the largest asset management firm, the largest head fund in the world, Bridgewater, you can look it up. And he's saying that basically almost all investors, including the most well-established professional investors, can't effectively predict the market, okay?
Yes, even if they think they can. So, for that reason, he believes that investors shouldn't, when they're managing their own portfolio, try to time the market. That being said, Danilo, I understand. I'm not going to use market timing in my investment. What we need to do, then, is to have a really, really suitable portfolio.
Basically, what we need here is a mix of investments that have a much higher return than low-risk investments, right? He says it down here, right? So, you need to have an investment that yields much more than a low-risk investment, but that doesn't have, it has a much lower risk than, well, a high-risk investment, right?
Low risk here means we're talking about fixed income, something very, very relaxed , like government bonds. And, yes, it's something high- risk; we're talking about things like stocks, crypto, right? It also works in this one, in this little box. And basically, he's saying that you should perform better than that standard, right, 60/40.
This is very common in the United States, right? This 60% stocks, 40% fixed income strategy. Here in Brazil, I see more of a difference between 30% in stocks, maybe crypto as well, on our equity side, and 70% in fixed income. But basically, this is such a simple portfolio that it suffers a lot in stressful situations, right?
Because you're going to fall quite a bit, right? In the case of the United States, when you have 60% in stocks, you're going to suffer a lot, and you're not going to have such a big gain when the market is up. In reality, you 'll have a significant gain because you'll be putting several eggs in that variable income basket, but the loss you experience when the market is down will negatively offset that investment.
So, what do we need to do? We need to have investments that will be complementary, right? Complementary. In other words, he even gives some examples below, of what those assets could be . But basically, what do you want? Assets that complement each other. In other words, they should have different volatilities, okay?
But they complement each other. So, for example, bonds, they don't do so well when inflation, uh, and growth increases, okay? Growth, when we're talking about GDP, that sort of thing. So why don't bonds perform well when inflation rises? Because imagine you're receiving 15% per year in the Brazilian market, but inflation is at six.
In other words, you have a real gain, right? Well, a real interest rate of 9% per year. Now, let's suppose that inflation increases significantly. Inflation will reach 10%. This eats up a good portion of your profit, because the interest rate isn't going to change so immediately. At the same time, when you have very strong economic growth, you're going to be losing almost an opportunity cost, because other things will be rising significantly, while you are extremely, uh, not taking risks.
But then he says, "Look, if inflation goes up, yes, I'll have investments that perform poorly, but I 'll also have inflation hedges, that is, inflation protectors, such as assets that perform very well during periods of high inflation." So, it's like gold, right? It's one of the most famous stores of value in the world, the main store of value in the world, or inflation-linked bonds, that is, those fixed-income securities that are indexed to inflation.
Commodities also tend to do well there when you have good economic growth. So basically, putting together this kind of thing will give you a much more relaxed portfolio, right, and without needing to do market timing. Here he gives several other examples, but basically the concept is to think about things that can happen, what assets, for example, might do well when you have a war in Iran, for example, right?
We have oil, right, doing very well recently, one of the commodities we were seeing, while other things weren't doing so well, right? We're seeing a possible very high inflation, right? Bitcoin is suffering quite a bit, right, on our side, but this tends to improve, it tends to balance out, because one thing compensates for the other, according to portfolio theory you will have an efficient portfolio, right?
This doesn't depend on when, what stage of the market we're in, or what we think will happen. And that's the main concept I wanted to bring to you all, okay? And now I'm going to talk a little about the book I'm reading, because that's why I'm bringing up these three in sequence, right? That little sequence I showed you guys, right?
I think it's even here, right next to us, on our side. Why did I say, "Look, this theory is extremely overused, right? It's extremely famous, okay? It's extremely simple to understand." So you have practically the world's greatest manager telling you to live like that. Actually, I didn't comment on this text at the beginning, but why does it matter?
He begins a reflection: "I'm already at an age where soon I'll have to pass my assets on," which may be the reality for some of the people watching me right now . I'm kind of a little confused here. Well, he says: "Look, at some point I 'm going to have to pass my money on, I'm going to have to pass it on to my daughters, my wife, etc., but they don't necessarily have the same expertise I have in managing a portfolio.
So, how can I pass on simple teachings to them that can be followed for many, many years and that won't significantly worsen my financial performance if we have some stressful event, okay? So, basically, that's where this provocation comes from, right, that he makes. So, if you're in that moment, man, I strongly recommend that you start looking at this world of indexed passive income, something short-term, low-cost, but that you can maintain for a very, very long time, okay?
Because, as we saw both in the text and in portfolio theory, you won't have a very easy time predicting what will happen. And that's what I wanted to bring up from this book that I'm finding incredible that I'm reading, which is the random walk there." "So, Wall Street, right? It's a book I highly recommend, especially for those who think day trading works, for those who think it's worth constantly rebalancing their portfolio, trying to be smarter than the market, okay?
Basically, it corroborates everything Ray Dalio is talking about in this book, right? Random Walk, what he's talking about here is basically a concept that's quite famous here, I left it for an hour, let's just use this image here. It looks nicer. Basically, Random Walk is a statistical concept, right, I'm remembering my economics classes in college, but basically it's something you can't predict, right?
Imagine a random walk, imagine you're looking at a graph and you don't know if the graph is going up or down, it doesn't have a clear pattern. Here, right, there's even a term in Portuguese, I don't know if they use this term in English too, but it's the drunkard's walk." Right? That thing, like, a drunk person is walking, you don't know if they're going forward, backward, sideways, where their next step will be.
And he gives several examples in this book of how trying to predict the movement of an asset tomorrow, that is, the next day's movement of an asset, is practically a random walk. You won't be able to guess, because the price, right, if, following the logic of efficient markets, everything that involves a price is already in it, right?
Let's suppose, the Iran war, does it affect the price? It will be in it. You 'll have gains from, I don't know, an increase in interest rates in Brazil, it will be in it. You'll have several vectors acting on the same price, which makes it practically impossible to know what's happening. It's like having a ball here and you have 100 people pushing it with different vectors of force, right?
Of course, if this is random, at one point it might go to the left, because there are more people pushing it to that side, at another point it might go up, to It's low, but trying to predict it isn't very good, is it? Which corroborates the data he even brings up in his book, that the vast majority of Wall Street managers who charge a good amount of money for their portfolios, often 2% management fees and a performance fee on top of that, a good portion of these guys receive this money and don't beat the stock market, the market they're investing in.
It's even curious, isn't it, Ray Dalio, one of the big owners of a hedge fund, saying he's building a strategy that doesn't involve market timing and that is basically passive at all times to pass this on, right? Why doesn't he say to do what a good portion of hedge fund managers do, which is to try to predict the market?
That's curious, to say the least. I had set aside a few more things to talk about, but basically, your winning strategy will be this, it will be a passive strategy, okay? Where you don't depend on being able to guess this movement. Random. It's ultra-simple, and you need to start focusing on cost now.
Why? There's a theory of efficient markets, that is, let's suppose you have many, many people pricing a specific asset, like a stock. You have a lot of information that's already publicly known, and this information will be priced by many very, very good and very well-paid people in that field. In other words, you 'll have Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, all of them trying to predict the movement of that stock, and any news they'll price and adjust that price, okay?
So you have to be very arrogant to think that you, who are often a doctor, businessman, lawyer, etc., and don't have enough time to look at the market, will beat these kinds of people. And look how great, you don't need to, because you can buy their average, okay? Imagine that, I don't know, they are all Formula 1 drivers and you have the same car.
The difference between the first and the last will be very different. It's going to be very little, right? So there's no point in trying to predict who wins the race if you can simply buy an average of how that car's performance will be. I don't know if this example was that good, but basically with the ETF you don't need to pay for both with 20, right?
You can have a much more relaxed way to invest, where the leading economist in portfolio model theory is saying that it's better to invest this way, which is Markowitz, the first guy I showed you, the biggest hedge fund manager and one of the main investment books in the financial market is telling you to invest.
So basically, if I have a message for you, I didn't want this video to get too long, it's almost 20 minutes, try to understand this concept of All Weather Portfolio and apply it to your investment portfolio. It was based on this concept that we built our traditional market consulting here at Mercurius, okay?
So we're going to look a lot at this issue of costs, peace of mind, and building a portfolio. A portfolio that can survive any and all movements and black swan events that might happen, right? I 'll leave black swan events for another video, right? The concepts of Nassim Taleb, which are also very interesting for us to discuss.
Also, comment below if you want me to bring, say, important books on the financial market, like the one I'm reading now, but there are several others that I think are important investments. Also, if you're looking for consulting services, I'll leave my phone number below. I know there are few views on the channel yet, but if you want to chat with me, understand how our consulting service works, I'll leave my phone number, my personal contact, in the first link in the description.
Okay? If you want to get to know me, we're in this together. I already appreciate the support from everyone who watched the first two videos on the channel. I hope you 're enjoying them. Always leave a like , send them to people who might like them. This type of content about investments, economics, entrepreneurship, and crypto is available here on the channel. And that's it. Subscribe too, okay? Take care and see you later. Thanks.
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