저자: DreTradesII · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 아직 안전하지 않으며 S&P500이 추세선을 이탈했으므로 저점 재테스트 가능성을 염두에 두고 신중해야 한다. 시장 전반: 전일 대폭 반등했지만 S&P500(SPY)이 추세선을 깨고 내려왔고, 과매도권에서 반등 중이나 저점 재테스트 가능성이 높다고 봄. 단기(1~2주) 후 재테스트 후 추가 상승 가능, 장기 주간차트(2015년 이후 추세선 지지)로는 상승 추세 유지로 판단. 유니온퍼시픽(UNP): 추세 이탈했으나 지지선 존재, VIX·옵션 프리미엄 높음. 10월 25일 실적 발표 전 지지선 아래 풋 매도 제안, 실적 전 청산 권고. CSX 긍정적 실적 발표에 따라 같이 움직일 것으로 기대. 테슬라(TSLA): 지지선 위 확인, 스토캐스틱 과매도 탈출 셋업을 좋아하나 여전히 하락 추세. 지지선 아래 풋 매도 프리미엄 제안, 이동평균 역전 확인 필요. 마이크로소프트(MSFT): 추세 이탈했으나 104달러 부근에서 매수세 유입(거래량), 상대강도 우수. 11월 14일 실적 전 상승 기대, 콜 또는 put spread 매도 선호, 전고점 테스트 가능성 제시. 리스크: 하락 추세 지속 중이므로 시장이 스스로 증명할 때까지 신중 필요, 성급한 재진입 주의. 출연자 전망: 단기 조정(저점 재테스트) 우려, 장기는 낙관, 개별 종목은 옵션 프리미엄 수취 전략 중심.
다듬은 글
so the stock market yesterday had a huge rally oh my gosh and you're probably wondering to know if it's safe to get back in is it is it safe with that the all-clear for the market so we're gonna go ahead and talk about that real quick and then at the end I will show you three stocks that I like that I'm watching what I'm doing so here's a chart of the S&P 500 and if we were to draw a trendline you could see that it broke trend you know what you should have got out right there and look what happened when it broke trend boom then BOOM I mean people was hurt blood started coming on the streets so what you see what's happening now them the market is bouncing yesterday was a huge rally look at the slow castex look how it's coming out into oversold almost going straight up I love that setup right here but the fact is we broke trend the SP Y is broken so what typically happens is we have to we have to retest this bottom there's no way we're just gonna V and and boom and everything is all good will come up most likely retest that low right here just like we did right here just like we did right here just like we did right here right right here okay so expect to retest this low right here this I just don't see us coming all the way up and everything is all good in the clear let me show you something real interesting of what's going on and let's go out to 8:00 let me clear these drawings here and let me show you something interesting let's go out real long let's go out on a weekly and look out from 2015 all the way up and connect the dots and boom look at that look at this how we came down early 2017 bounced off this trendline bouncing off this trendline again the market is going higher I mean nothing is broken when you look at the weekly chart let's zoom in like that nothing is broken when you look at the weekly chart all I can see is us retesting that low or that trendline somewhere around here just like we did over here and continue to go up so long-term I actually think we are okay short-term I think we're fine for a week maybe a week or two and then BOOM we're gonna somehow retest that low get those weak hands out and then maybe we continue on to the trend so let me show you some stocks that I like I'm gonna let's go ahead and bring up Union Pacific I'm gonna show you what I'm doing Union Pacific zoom in right there hard down it this stock has broke trend as well but you can see we have a level of support the VIX is high options are high becoming into earnings on October 25th you can sell puts below here premiums or juicy just make sure you get out before earnings on October 25th CSX already reported and it had a good report positive in the aftermarket look at that so I think Union Pacific will probably be safe it will probably hold right there if not go higher and follow what CSX is possibly doing so sell some puts get that premium juicy premium so look ahead let's look at Tesla Tesla chop-chop City all over the place but if you zoom in does a bad zoom let me see okay here we go look at that's a level of support I still I'm like that zoom we have support right there premiums are juicy as well and Tesla look at the slow stochastic how it is just coming out of that always soul I love this setup I'd love it look what happened when it was right here boom right here boom okay so I totally love to setup but just remember it's still in a downtrend so it has to prove itself let's see these moving averages reverse these just as 10 to 20 and the 40 that's what I like let's see them leave verse but right now it's looking really I think you could sell some premium underneath that support collect that money that's right all right so last stock my favorite stock Microsoft how is it not anyone's favorite stock you can see a broke trend just like anything else but what I liked about the stock market semi crash everybody all that nervous is Microsoft showed us a low it showed us it showed us his hand 104 okay this is where buyers decided to step in look at that volume this is where buyers started to step in look at that's okay look at the relative strength it's just always been stronger than market didn't do nowhere near what the market did this is going higher I like this for calls I like if I sell and put spreads you naming this thing is is this bullish going into earnings on November 14 I see this thing at least testing sometime these all-time highs look how the all-time hide the one 1618 look how it kind of corresponds with the bottom side of that trendline so I see it getting up here and then you'll see what happens when after the earnings so there's some stocks are like there's the market be careful bring up the SP why again be careful it looks good star castex looking good but I think we're gonna retest that low ok so just be careful right there it's not all clear we are in a downtrend still so let the market prove itself alright so anyway thanks for watching this video man thanks for a comeback you know I'm gonna share some things that I'm doing stocks that I like and we could talk about the market really caught it I hope you liked it leave your comments below I appreciate you watching thanks I'm Dre by the way see you
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