저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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자산시장 변동성이 커질 것이며 실질 수익은 어려울 수 있다. 금·은·백금 등 귀금속과 식품 원자재가 깨어나고 있어 구매력 보존 수단으로 본다. 미국 주식시장 일부와 빅7·반도체·AI 관련주는 고평가로 정점 신호가 보여 회피를 권한다. 대신 저평가 신흥국(라틴아메리카, 일부 아시아)과 원자재·정유 관련 저PBR 섹터가 상대적으로 싸다고 본다. 트럼프 관세는 소비자 물가 상승을 초래하는 잘못된 정책이라고 비판한다.
다듬은 글
so we we we will have a lot of volatility and as I said my view is you're not going to make money out of assets markets I mean not meaningful money but I think gold and silver and platinum and those other Commodities the food commodities have started to wake up I think we'll keep that purchasing power and my view is that the asset markets in general are peing out in the United States and other asset markets especially in Europe and in emerging economies or in America some sectors are depressed relative to the commodity oil stocks are cheap or the miners mining stocks are low so so some sectors are bottoming out and some sectors are peing out and as an investor we need to focus on what will go up and what is not recognized what is neglected what people no what nobody wants that is what I'm looking for I'm referring to the Magnificent Seven stocks the fun stocks semiconductors all these AI uh investment C these stocks are peeking out I wrote the report the trump top the report was written in December look the whole world is gambling on Nidia and the cryptos and the Tesla stock and so for uh a bubble is always attracting capital from everywhere there every bubble we had you know even in the Tulip Mania in Holland in the 17th century sorry in the 18th century it attracted capital from all over Europe because the people today are well informed through social media and internet I know as much as you do about Nidia and the stock price right now I happen to have Bloomberg Traveler but other people they have other services like Yahoo finance and so and interactive brokers and and so on so they know the codes and they trade these stocks at the Commodities or Bitcoins 24 hours a day I mean I never was you know a big conspiracy theorist but some of my friends who are very well informed they have argued for the last 20 years that London doesn't have the gold it claims to have you know and that there is a shortage as well as for silver and most likely for platinum as well and we know that in the last 20 30 years the financial markets have grown like this exponentially the global economy has grown like this so the Branch markets are much bigger than the global economy nowadays we can measure that but as by measuring the market capitalization as a percent of GDP so when I started to work in 1970 the US stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP was 25% now it's close to 200% when it was 25% when the stock market went down or up it had no impact on the economy right it had a little impact but not a huge impact now in my view if the markets go down they'll have a huge impact on the economy huge but that in my view will motivate the Trump team who are all rich people not all but most the to support the stock market they will print money but then the currency will go it's clear to me that selected us assets are very highly priced and the expectations for these companies are very high and when expectations are very high and the stock price is very pricey there is plenty of disappointments that can creep up and so I would avoid the Magnificent Seven stocks and the semiconductors anything that is popular and I would look at sectors and industries that are not popular and depressed and have a value character low price book low price sales and so forth that is what I would do and that you find in emerging economies last year one of the best performing markets in the world the best performing country ETF was Argentina mhm two years ago nobody wanted to look at it 2024 one of the best 2023 one of the best performing markets was Turkey nobody wanted to look at it beforehand so these are the things I look at I think Latin American markets are reasonably cheap and some Asian markets are inexpensive they're not as cheap as they were in 2003 and 2009 during the crisis but they are relatively cheap basically my view is that Wall Street doesn't want to and the public doesn't understand really what inflation means and what it is and uh in my view there are two major categories of inflation or the symptoms of inflation inflation is the increase in the quantity of money and of fiscal deficits and so forth but the the principal symptoms are either you have very high Consumer Price inflation in in other words the price in your Supermarket goes up MH or the price of services go up like if you want to take a train or you pay for a taxi the prices of these things go up a lot or insurance premiums is a typical Consumer Price inflation symptoms or we have other categories like uh asset inflation when stocks go up proper is go up and um Commodities go up or or house prices go up and so for so these two major categories we have to treat differently and this is one of the viciousness of inflation that in the system when you print money the money doesn't flow evenly to everybody it flows unevenly to the banking sector first and from the banking and insurance sector it flows on into other sectors of the economy the problem with Mr Trump is he's an arrogant non knowledge person he takes decision without having thinking through the process of the consequences of his decisions very carefully he's very impulsive and he changes his mind that he's an interventionist sadly sadly he thinks he knows everything better than anyone so the tariffs by and large are a horrible idea horrible idea the Tariff is a tax and it's an unfair tax The Economist in the 19th century already discovered that it's an unfair tax so they removed the tariffs in England which were the Navigation Acts and the corn lws and thousands of import duties on everything you have to be very very careful how to handle it because if you impose say a sales tax on someone he may not be the one who pays for it and the Tariff the tax will be on the lower classes in America that I guarantee you everything will become more expensive as a result of tariffs now he may not introduce them because soon he will notice that America may need China more than China needs America what Mr Trump doesn't know or forgets at least half half of exports from China to America are actually American companies that make Goods in China so I mean you know if General Motors produces Auto Parts or Imports a parts and there tariffs on these other parts then of course the car in America will become more expensive do you want that don't tell me the US is growing rapidly because if the debt Grows by say I don't know $1 10 trillion dollar in eight years on the Biden and the econom is growing only at Say by three trillion where is the growth
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