저자: StockBookie채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 진행자는 NVDA·AMD·TSLA 모두 단기적으로 약세 패턴이라고 보며 조정 가능성을 제시하나, 각 종목의 지지·저항 조건에 따라 방향 전환 여지를 둠. NVDA: 일봉상 190~174 지지가 저항으로 바뀌었고 200일선 위는 유지하나 20·50일선 아래로 밀림. 약세 패턴(하락 쐐기 성격)으로 보고, 20·50일선 또는 200달러 회복 시 재돌파 가능. 조건 미충족 시 105~120 부근까지 조정 가능성 언급. NVDA 리스크: 연말 거래량 감소 속 추가 매도 가능성, 2015년처럼 연말 이후 추가 하락 기대. AMD: 8.88달러 채널과 10달러 돌파 후 갭 메움 상태. 일봉상 20·50·200일선 아래의 약한 흐름이나 과거 약세 패턴 뒤 급등 사례가 있어 모멘텀 반등 가능성도 열어둠. 11.46 종가 돌파 시 상승 전환 기대, 8.31~8달러 하락 시 6~8달러 롱 시도 가능성. AMD 리스크: 최근 거래량 증가 시 상승 가능, 하방 시 958.59~850달러 언급 등 수치 혼재(자막 오인식 추정). TSLA: 반도체·세미트럭 뉴스 주도 상승 후 조정 중. 340 부근(50% 되돌림) 지지 유지가 핵심, 360 이중 천장 및 352~365 저항 구간. 260~265 돌파 시 추가 상승, 이탈 시 하락 가능, 400~410 구간 숏 분할 진입 고려. 뉴스 민감도 높음. 대표 리스크: 뉴스·세법 개편 등 외부 재료, 자막 수치 오류 가능성, 옵션 투자 시 포트폴리오 1~3% 한도 권고. 출연자 전망 요약: 진행자 본인은 조정을 우세하게 보나 특정 가격 조건부 시나리오 제시.
다듬은 글
NVIDIA on the daily chart 2.73 percent up five dollars and nine cent Green great day guys got above this lower trendline here at one ninety seventy four which was good support now it was resistance we did close a little bit above that so that was a pretty good close for the bulls we are still under the sloping trendline and then of course this one here in the upper trend line where we were dryer starting to break out hit the top reversed or retraced back up came in little sideways action came back down saved it by the dip mentality and we did fill the gap down here about 180 102 so held it retraced up kind of chopping around I still think we're in a little bit of a bearish pattern here down sideways still above the 200 ma so still in the strong stance but we're back below the 20 and the 50 ma so bulls you need to get back above these mas here or the $200 even number that will solidify possibly another breakout but it still has to get above these trend lines that was the channel it was in for a while so as long as it stays below these below the trend lines or the moving averages this could be possibly setting up for more bearish action we are still going into the Christmas holiday the light volume going into the new year so that could be a play a big roll of these possibly going higher so we'll watch for these but in my last video we do write calls so if we get a pop on this will write some calls on here and play the decay and do it again so we've done it over and over and over go to my latest video it's a pretty good one we've had 22 winners in November and a couple more but those are the ones I showed from all my members who are at stock book e.com so alright so again sideways action we'll see what happens going into next week again that was a pretty good close for the Bulls but a little bit weak of his stance below the mas and below this breakdown bar here so let's keep an eye on this one for the next week or so and let's see where this goes into the holiday season I'm still thinking we get a little more selling towards the end of the year after Christmas going into New Year's just like we did in 2015 I believe it was so on the weekly now we are holding the 20 ma we always talked about this being a little bit stretch I mean it was stressed for a long time guys and just kept floating floating floating here we are it's kind of came in a little bit of a bearish pattern let's see if this holds or continues sideways on a weekly closer look the way for next Friday or let's see if it retraces now if it gets above that $200 area and this - Oh 436 this could possibly shoot up for higher prices got to watch this lower trendline that's connecting the lows from that channel when it was you know the pennant channel and when it was going up broke out came right back in holding up and still looking good still above the mas but again just if you're long tighten these stops let it come down by again if you have to buy the dip but I'm thinking this one will come down into the hundred dollar area 105 when it's all said and done but let's go to the monthly let's look at the price point on that I'll tell you well actually not 100 I'm gonna have to go about 120 wherever the 20ma is that's where it's gonna head but I still think I like this consolidation down here around 105 106 but again still a strong stock but still stretched onto monthly I want to see this one coming a little bit more I'd love to go long in video cuz that was that would be the easy trade me on the other hand I'm a bear I like to go shorten on these like I said go to my last video we traded this one a couple times with some short calls and made some good money on this trade so again still in la-la-land waist Rhett it's been stretched since PEC here so stock of the year let's see where this one goes but I believe on the daily shmore short term that this is gonna be set enough to go down and then if the markets come in at the spy and the IWM the queues this will come down one t6 would be a good target and then I still think we could get down here around 1:13 in these big gap-fill here so watch out for that and again the trend is your friend until the end this is slightly bearish let's see what happens going into next week AMD let's see my charts are a little bit slow all right there we go so AMD we talked about the nine dollar and eighty-eight cents channel and you know since it was up here channel and around boom that's what it hits ten dollars filled the gap it is holding this is a buy the dip mentality stock so people are buying the dip especially going into the holiday season where this could possibly get pushed up on the light volume so but just like this pattern down sideways we got this little pop and then they dropped it again but look down sideways down sideways this is bearish pattern setting up and now we're back below the 20 the 50 and the 200 it's a weak stance but what I've seen in the last year so you get these great bearish patterns inside bars and all sudden you get the pop you get some momentum coming the volume comes in and next thing you know this thing's a 14 dollar stock so we'll be looking for a momentum trade possibly on this one but we'll have to see I mean we had some pretty good volume on Friday here I mean that what was it mm what 35 million or so actually 45 million with after-hours action but 35 on the day so this is a great bearish pattern guys but you know the way these things go bears pattern next thing go pops it starts going up cuz everyone starts going short look at the weekly on this one real quick here just to see yeah look at that double bottom you have this little pivot here around 9:45 so watch for that guys you're back below the 50 and the 20 on this this thing's starting to break down but 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 weeks going into this double bottom this is great support let's see if this holds or let's see if this goes sideways so that's next Friday's close let's see if we could get above the 10 83 or possibly at least above that 11:50 or so and start heading towards this lower trendline and the 50 and the 20 ma if you're bullish that's what you want to see you want to see this thing's starting to go up I'm bigger volume days on the daily and even on the 10-minute chart - you want to watch for that so let's keep an eye if we could get above the 1146 on a closing basis on Friday or even back above here and then we could possibly start going higher but you still have the trendline 500 the six one eight retrace couple things to look out for as this is going up if it remains down here and continues sideways is chopping around 20ma curls in the price this could send this thing lower I've talked about six dollars since this area up in here since we popped up so you're talking October beginning of 2017 October 2016 this thing went up like this we ended up shorting it right on this one we got this move here and that was our only trade on this one chopping around this has been a great trading vehicle I just want to see a definite go to point to ghost long or short because this thing can go either way three four bucks and then you're down you know 30 40 percent in a heartbeat and you're getting killed so again guys no more than 10% position of your total portfolio if you're in options no more than one two three percent of your total portfolio and you won't get killed just slow and steady keep banging out trades and make it happen guys go to my new video the winners in November we had 22 winners in November all shorts all shorting calls and people say I have no skill well go there check out the trades they were all pretty good winners so so we're holding this bottom let's see if we go sideways setting up for lower prices telling you the points are gonna be 200 mas on the weekly charts if these things start coming in and that that's almost 6 bucks guys so I'm giving it an $8 Target or these lower pivots around 8 31 if this starts to break down if it really starts going you're coming to this 20 hour 200ma wherever that might be so watch for that monthly chart this is what I want to look at yeah see the monthly chart you've had a great support in this double bottom and on the monthly monthly tends to go down remember it's a monthly charts not gonna hit and bounce sometimes gonna hit and go through and slowly come in and then give you the bounce on a monthly timeframe which is the biggest timeframe Wall Street guys you got the daily monthly weekly and this is it right here you have great support if this cracks guys I'm telling you you are coming down in this area if it goes up right I won't be in any other way but if it starts hitting those lower ends around the $8 $7 and even the six bucks I'll be trying to go long on this one and give it a shot so let's keep an eye on AMD guys if you are long tighten those stops just you need a bounce next week with the daily chart and you need to get above especially the 20 ma which is 1063 then you need to get above this 11:50 area in this stuff 50 ma it'd be great if you can get above the 200 ma then this could possibly break out to the gap Phil and I think this would be the end of the road or 1550 you watch for that so right now guys weak stance below the mas it could start to pop so watch for that going into Christmas but watch for more volume if you start getting volume in this this could damn well go up so bears you're in control at this point you know even you guys tighten those stops just in case it starts going up and the Long's who have been buying up in here man I don't know what to say if this thing starts to slip you're go you're going down to nine fifty-nine bucks eight fifty eight bucks and possibly lower so watch for that alright in Tesla Tesla has been going up on news again this is the news driven stock this is this time it was semi trucks so we talked about this downward action sideways bearish below the mas they popped it up saved it they got it back above the 20 and the 50 but now we're just chopping around right at the 50% retrace which is 340 124 we did close above that but remember we came down in here we popped up a little bit bullish dropped it here dropped it again came back we're retracing right back to this area where people were starting to buy you know buy the dip and then it goes up and oh my here it goes here and then they slammed it to him went back up so all these buyers here that were buying for the whole Plano buy the dip they become seller so that's why this thing stalling out we still have the six one eight the seven 500 retrace and the double top at 360 283 so bowls you got to stay above the MA it's gotta go sideways and start to move up big area next area will be the 352 54 as well as the 350 then 363 62 to 365 more resistance pretty much in this whole area here with the consolidation and stuff like that so this thing needs to go sideways consolidate in a bullish manner 20ma curls in the price pushes this up maybe you get some more news with the semis we'll see next week spy light volume these can damn well float so watch for that so you got the news with the tax reform and all that good stuff as well so you got to keep an eye on the news cuz news seems to be driving these markets nothing else and again guys above the mas still slight you know it's starting to get out of the bearish mode you know I have no position in this one so I'm not I could care less but I get a lot of emails and choirs about me doing videos on this one because I've been hitting this one pretty good we were short shares a while back got kind of burned they came in we covered them made great money and then when this thing was bouncing around up and down we were shortened long short long short we even played some compositions if you go to my video you could see some of those compositions that we did or shorted calls or right calls naked calls that is and play the decay so again though guys you know it's not bad I got to see more on this next week to see if the souls if it just comes right back in look out I think we're gonna break this area and go lower so watch for that remember news everyone's buying Tesla semis right here guys everyone and their grandma so join the party and buy some more so we'll see if that's all true but this is what I was talking about on the weekly we did close above the 20ma on the weekly which is more bullish all right but look at this down retrace to the top down retrace this time though do we do a shorter retrace maybe seven five oh and then the next leg down or if we break above that 260 265 then we'll probably go to triple top and that's where I'll be taking another position short on Tesla or at least adding next place will be 400 next place will be 410 i'll average it in around 400 and then boom maybe get some downside maybe write some calls on one two but next Friday I want to see a close above the 20 ma and keep above this 50% retrace here this purple line right at say 342 or so so keep an eye on that one so as long as this thing stays above that you know this is another one like like AMD see how it goes down nice sideways pattern bearish now I mean a little bit bullish here but barrister Nelson I love the blue it pops on news so you got to watch for that guys 1 2 3 4 5 6 sideways gosh that was setting up nice so for a bearish setup but just didn't happen this time so we did we get a short-term retrace maybe to the 7 5 Oh at 365 and then it starts to tank well it just you know we'll know more on Fridays clothes and then the daily though or on the monthly monthly still yeah you know it's getting closer to the 20 mm I remember when it was up here we were talking target would be the 20 ma and look at that it came right down to the 291 never made it there so let's again let's see if it retraces or does it come right back in if it closes on a monthly it needs to close above this red bar here or the 330 to 11 area at the end of the year so let's watch for that so there's a couple areas to watch for this one and watch the news as well cuz that's what's driving these markets too and again guys these three you know they're the ones a lot of people play and they could be big movers in these markets and make people a lot of money so technically they're all okay but a little bit stretch but keep an eye on them let's see if we can make some money in the next couple weeks and that's all we want to do here at stock book e.com all right guys that's it for today remember to like the video go to and subscribe to my youtube channel or go to my website and become a member it's free and you'll get videos like this and a couple other things we're working on we're gonna do some live stuff coming up as well do some live intraday action where we could get some trades off as well so alright everybody and
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