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I'm starting to wonder I'm sorry wonder wondering if everything we thought we knew about macroeconomics is wrong okay great has been a long time since I'm thinking economics class but so much forty years but so much of what I was taught somebody doesn't fit with what we're seeing right now for example back in the day they like to tell us about the Phillips curve the idea that there was an ironclad relationship between unemployment inflation when unemployment is low it's supposed to cause an intolerable level of inflation to be fair no one uses the phillips curve anymore but the models they replace it but they don't seem to be working either as the job market booms wages start to rise and that wage inflation then works its way through the whole system I mean that's what happened fifty years ago when the jobless rate got this low but it's not happening now even though we have a strong job market wages are barely up that's not all the Labor Department's supposed to be tied the Labor Department's must be tied to to our gross domestic product when our GDP is decelerating as it is right now usually that's pretty bad for jobs we're now in a bizarre situation where the unemployment rate says the Fed should raise interest rates but GDP growth says the Fed should cut interest rates like you did earlier this week why do I bring this up because there are a ton of commentators who act like economics it's a hard science and they throw you off the scent of making money in the stock market now these people roll out discredited theories from 40 years ago to come up with arguments about what the Fed is going to do next or should do next you see that's no longer how it works Orthodox economics has only led us astray force a Fed chief Jay pal seems to realize that he knows that we're in uncharted waters here he has no idea whether he'll need to cut interest rates again because he needs to see the data as it comes in before he makes the call or keep them just steady and anybody who tells you otherwise it's just wrong they're making stuff up pal gets it because he's been burned by economics before remember a year ago he was talking about three more rate hikes all because the orthodoxy says you need to tighten when unemployment is low turns out the orthodoxy was dead wrong he had to reassess the situation and then he what three times huh 2014 raise cut three don't you think it's hard to be more wrong than that frankly don't you think you lose your job if you were that for whatever reason economics doesn't seem to have much predictive power and this pretty in this environment anymore and relying on these theories has become a fool's game I think Paulo understands that the industrial economy needs help even as the much larger consumer economy is humming along just fine he's broken from the orthodoxy and I salute him for that see I'm a company by company guy with the exception of Honeywell and United Technologies do you know that I can't think of any industrials that are doing really well the reason being hindered by the trade work or hobbled by a strong dollar and the dollar is strong because our rates are too high versus the rest of the world that's why it made so much sense for the Fed to cut on Wednesday and why they might need to keep cutting down the road now every time the Fed eases you hear from these self-appointed experts who tell us that low rates are about to settle a ruinous bout of inflation these people have been wrong for the last decade every single time but they still cling to the same doctrinaire attitude and by the way they act as if they've been right but the relationship between unemployment inflation broke down right and I think it's because we have so many deflationary forces in this new economy with Walmart Amazon and the cloud-based software companies driving down prices daily the Fed is a lot more leeway to cut rates if they can boost employment and GDP growth without causing inflation well that's what they should do there's no downside I know what the textbooks say those textbooks are obviously and empirically wrong it is time to put them and their believers out to pasture sti
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