🚨 Gold Price To CRASH 45%? | Cathie Wood's Reaganomics Warning & The Bitcoin Pivot

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우드는 비트코인/금 비율이 다시 상승할 것으로 보며, 비트코인 급락은 펀더멘털이 아닌 일시적 유동성 제약 때문이라고 주장. 금은 M2 대비 역사적 고점 수준이라 과거 1980·2011년 고점 후처럼 45~67% 하락 가능성을 언급하며 향후 4~5년 내 유사 하락을 배제하지 않음. 레이거노믹스 강화형 감세·규제완화로 디플레이션 환경과 달러 강세를 전망. 연준 양적긴축 종료와 재무부 계좌 유동성 회수로 유동성이 늘 것으로 봄. 수익률곡선은 디플레이션 신호로 해석하며 12월 금리인하 가능성을 80~90%로 봄.

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01. We always believe those would be shortterm and still believe they will be. Um and so if we are right, we believe uh that that that uh the Bitcoin to gold ratio will resume its uptrend, especially if what I said uh when talking about the gold to M2 chart is correct. Kathy Wood begins with a comparison she's made for years, Bitcoin versus gold.

02. Historically, the Bitcoin to gold ratio has been trending upward, reflecting Bitcoin's growing role as a digital store of value, but then came the recent drop in Bitcoin. According to Wood, the decline was far more severe than she anticipated, and she believes it was caused not by fundamentals, but by temporary liquidity constraints in the financial systems.

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04. Thanks and enjoy the video. As usual, Bitcoin to gold. This has um the the drop in Bitcoin we think was more well, first of all, it was more severe than we expected. Um and I do believe it's because of the liquidity uh constraints and restraints that we have seen during the last uh couple of months.

05. Uh we we always believe those would be shortterm and still believe they will be. Um and so if we are right, we believe uh that that that uh the Bitcoin to gold ratio will resume its uptrend, especially if what I said uh when talking about the gold to M2 chart is correct. Wood's conclusion, Ark would not be surprised to see a similar 45% drop in gold price over the next four to 5 years.

06. She believes we are entering a period best described as regonomics on steroids, driven by massive tax cuts and deregulation that are more formidable now than in the 80s, setting up a deflationary environment where the dollar becomes better than gold. Gold relative to M2, and remember we're saying M2 is starting to flatten out here.

07. gold relative to M2 really is as high as it's ever been except for the Great Depression. Uh when the money supply was collapsing negative uh it's no longer that now uh and back then uh gold was revalued. Uh so or I should say devalued. It was a devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold. Um and that's why the spike back then now we don't we don't have uh the first condition anymore.

08. Money growth has turned positive. Um but we do have the second condition in in terms of uh the dollar losing value relative to gold. And I I think one of the the bets that the that investors in gold are are making is that the liquidity that spewed out during the during the COVID crisis is um still going to find its way into inflation.

09. We don't think so. If money supply money supply is topping out and velocity is rolling over. Uh now I would like to give you now that everybody thinks gold has only one way to go. If you look at the last two spikes there um meaning the last two other than the depression. So the one in 1980 and the one in a minor one in 2011.

10. In uh 1980 gold peaked at $850. I was very young in my career and I remember the day and uh over the next five years four to five years roughly it dropped 67%. Why was that? It was because regonomics was working and investors decided to focus on the equity market and the bond market uh instead of hedging uh continuing to hedge against the inflation that had been debilitating during the 70s.

11. uh inflation came down uh and continued falling uh and the dollar became very strong. The dollar became better than gold. It was appreciating as gold was going down. And so gold dropped uh about 67% to 284 uh dollars in February of 85. Uh so yes the gold price can go down and we think we are moving into uh more than a a reeganomics market.

12. We think uh this is regonomics on steroids based on especially on the tax cuts and the deregulation. Those two are much more formidable uh right now than uh they were in the early 80s. Uh with the exception of the individual tax rate back then uh did drop by quite a lot by 25% I think but in it was phased in and that's not the way to go.

13. One thing about this administration, it has learned its lessons from the mistakes of regonomics. Do not phase in a tax cut. They made it retroact retroactive. That was very smart. In 2011, the gold price peaked in September at roughly, 1900. And uh by December of 2015, again, roughly four years later, we talk about the four-year cycle in Bitcoin.

14. That's pretty interesting. Both of those were were effectively four years. Gold dropped from 1900 to 1,50. So that was a 45% drop. uh and we would not be surprised to see something like that happen during the next four to five years. Wood's deflationary signal if short rates and long rates come down but the yield curve does not steepen anymore it will be a powerful telegraph of deflationary undercurrents in the global economy.

15. This is a critical signal that contradicts the pervasive fear of long-term high inflation chart. just want to give you a sense of what what I or a picture of liquidity. So liquidity moving down uh what we told you uh during the last in the no was that the combination of the end of quantitative tightening now that was only on December 1st so it's hardly had any any time to impact but that um that that is adding effectively adding liquidity to the system relative to what otherwise would have been the case uh to the tune of 30 to 35 billion per month.

16. Uh so that that is going to help turn this line up. Uh and then the Treasury General account we think is going to go up. Now, it the the Treasury General account cash built to the tune of $350 billion during the government shutdown. It has not, even though the government shutdown has ended, it has not started to unwind that liquidity, but we believe uh that it it will and actually is in the process of doing so.

17. Uh so we think this line is going to turn around uh fairly dramatically. Now just uh to reinforce what I said before the those betting on gold are looking at what happened to liquidity during COVID and it it went uh it it doubled it doubled. These are very big numbers doubled from three and a half trillion to 7 trillion.

18. uh and uh now we're back down to 5 1/2. There is a fear that that doubling will reverberate uh in the form of inflation. Uh we think in the next as tariffs work through the system that uh the surprise is going to be on the low side of expectations and that uh those worried about inflation will have to think twice about how they're positioned in the marketplace.

19. Here it it depicts the yield curve. Uh it is the two it's at the short end of the curve. The 2-year minus the threemonth t uh uh treasury bill yield. And you can see this is still inverted still below zero. uh and you can see anytime that has happened in the past uh certainly for any length of time uh we've seen a recession follow and uh it has been amazing that we have not been in recession but as we have mentioned before we've been in a rolling recession um as the Fed eases and we do think the odds are 80 90% for a cut on December 10th uh this should start moving above zero.

20. And then the longer term yield curve, which I know I talk about all the time. I'm kind of obsessed with it. Uh is um I think telling a story. We've put a downtrend here, a trend line, uh since 2008 2009. Um and you know we were surprised during COVID that the yield curve did not reach levels it had uh reached before when the Fed was uh fighting recession.

21. Um it it reached roughly half that level and here we are. Uh could we be peaking now? Well, that would be that would be very interesting um if short rates came down um if short rates uh a and long rates come down. But this yield curve uh does not steepen anymore. Um I think it will be telegraphing that there are deflationary undercurrens out there and hopefully some of the bond strategists um uh will start um uh uh will start analyzing it from that point of view as well.

22. Please take a little time to like this video, subscribe to the channel and turn on post notifications for more videos like this. You can also check out our other videos on cryptocurrencies and the overall digital asset space and drop your comments and observations in the comment section below. Everything you do helps with the YouTube algorithm and immensely contributes to the channel's growth. Thanks and enjoy the