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with us bob dahl crossmark global investments chief investment officer welcome to both of you professor siegel i really want to know whether it's guidance earnings revisions direction of gas prices what's that most important signal that you're going to be watching for in the second half of the year to determine whether we're heading into a serious recession or not well john i i think we're in a recession i mean the data this morning was very bad i mean not not on the inflation front but on real spending and uh the indicators that i look at uh the forecasters now say second quarter will also print a negative gp growth number as you know minus 1.6 in the first quarter now it is a technical definition it isn't followed by the national bureau exactly two consecutive quarters of declining real gdp generally signal a recession we don't know where to go seriously that professor is why i said a serious recession what are you watching to see if it's like a really painful one or a longer lasting one versus just a technical one well uh i mean we're it's a it's a real one uh whether it's going to be shallow or or deep yet to bc i mean listen we have to look at commodity prices i'm not surprised the 10-year drop below three i mean that's telling you really big slow down because with inflation in the ten year below three uh commodity prices falling everywhere uh i don't think it's going to be a severe recession john but i i think that we are in one of the most unique unusual recessions with unemployment 3.6 and a strong labor market yet demand and inflation is eating away at the purchasing power of the consumer right yeah um working to to move backwards more slowly perhaps for a lot of the population bob doll what about it is this market pricing in what you think is realistically likely to happen in the second half or is there still this idea out there priced in that uh earnings are are going to be higher the key is to answer that question and i think most of us are now of the view that earnings aren't going to be continue to go higher as they did the first six months this year the question is how much lower do those estimates go i'm with a professor i i think it's shallow we don't have a playbook for this i don't think the nber will say we had a recession based on the technical first and second quarter i think it's going to be more about bumbling along as the market's likely to do with a lot of choppiness and volatility inflation probably is coming off commodity prices that we just as we just talked about so we're getting a little less inflation a little less earnings maybe that means the focus in the second half is more on earnings and less on pe that doesn't mean we go straight up but i think it can be bouncier and frustrating both the bulls and the bears that would be nice bob but how vulnerable is this market to an external shock like an extended you know china coveted lockdown that we got in the first half of the year that took a bunch of people for a loop i mean are we kind of like on tenuous ground that this is shallow and that we navigate well through it yeah tenuous is a good word i mean how how long does the war last uh one of the ramifications of it kovid you're absolutely right look as as the interviews that sarah did at the at the bottom of the hour europe's facing a lot worse than we are here in in the us uh we'll we'll we'll manage our way through somehow don't forget consumers still have two trillion dollars of excess savings on their balance sheets that will cushion uh the inflation problem a bit and of course we still have a pretty strong labor market even though it's weakening somewhat so i think we'll make our way through here a bit longer i'm not saying no recession ever but i think we can push it off a bit here professor siegel president biden said i believe earlier today that the u.s is going to back ukraine as long as necessary whatever the implications for gas prices and inflation etc is that priced into the market well you know we actually see those uh gasoline prices falling uh on the wholesale level and the retail level natural gas falling um you know john you know it might surprise us four weeks from now we have the fed everyone's saying 75 is a is a slam dunk uh if we continue to get the weakness that i see it might be 50 maybe 25.
um you know then i i think we're near the bottom of a bear market once investors can can see hey i can see that peak of the fed in terms of hiking i can see that road down away it may be a recession but you know it's been mostly rates that have sent down stock prices more than profits uh really profits have held up fairly well it's been the race if they can see if we can see a peak in rates i think that would actually stabilize the stock market yeah okay maybe things have gotten bad enough and so it's like a sunny recession scenario i like it professor siegel bob doll thank you thank you
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