저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 공격적 금리인상 우려로 기술주는 조정받겠지만, 가치주 중심의 순환매 장세로 올해 시장 전체는 상승 가능하다는 관점. 연준 및 금리 전망: 인플레이션은 일시적이 아니며 악화될 것이므로 연준이 예상보다 공격적으로 금리를 올려야 한다고 주장. 12월 FOMC 의사록에 연준 관계자들의 우려가 반영됐다고 해석. 과거 인용 언급으로 4회 인상 가능성은 40%라는 예측이 있었으나 본인은 4회 이상, 8회까지 인상될 수 있다고 봄. 10년물 금리 상승이 이런 우려를 반영한다고 설명. 2018년과의 차이: 현재 은행 지준금 4조 달러 이상으로 2018년 대비 유동성이 충분하고, 당시 인플레이션은 연준 목표 이하였으나 현재는 완전고용 수준에 인플레이션 문제까지 있어 상황이 다름. 연준의 최우선 목표는 물가 안정이라고 강조. 시장 전망: 현재 하락은 기술주에서 가치주로의 순환매(rotation)로 보며, 현금흐름이 좋은 기업은 수혜. 할인율 상승으로 높은 밸류에이션(예: 마이크로소프트 등 고PER 종목)은 더 취약하고, 올해 연말까지 이 흐름이 이어질 것으로 봄. 가치주와 S&P500 자체도 올해 상승 가능하며 S&P500은 10% 상승 가능성 언급. 밸류에이션: S&P500은 내년 예상 이익 기준 약 22배로 역사적 평균보다 높지만, 저금리 환경을 감안하면 정상 범위(20~22배)라고 판단. 금리가 2~2.5%~3%까지 올라도 과거 평균 15배로 회귀할 근거는 약하다고 봄. 단기 조정: 2021년 같은 큰 상승은 어렵지만 연준 긴축 우려(테이퍼 트레머)로 1분기 또는 2분기 중 조정이 나올 수 있으며, 연간으로는 8~10% 상승 가능성. 출연자 전망 요약: 기술주 조정 지속, 가치주 강세, S&P500 연간 8~10% 상승 전망.
다듬은 글
of course got crushed today with the nasdaq down more than three percent let's uh discuss now with jeremy siegel professor siegel great to see you as always thanks for for joining us i mean to start things off i'm actually going to ask about yields what do you make in the rise in yields over the course of the last two or three trading sessions and those minutes from the fed today so as you know will you know i've been saying for over a year the fed had to be far more aggressive uh than the market had expected uh with the inflation i think never temporary and going to get worse uh and i think the minutes in december reflect a lot of concern of those fed officials and i think the market is beginning to say yeah they are going to get serious you know uh i heard steve eastman say that there's 40 chance of four rate hikes i think a couple weeks ago i i told sarah there was gonna be eight rate hikes uh and uh everyone jumped uh i think they're gonna do many more than four rate hikes uh coming up and i think that that fear is is is now what we see in the 10-year bond but here's the problem uh professor siegel the nasdaq fell three and a half percent today and the s p you know got hit pretty hard as well and and how many more of those days can the fed stomach in other words if the fed miss its window inflation looks like it may be peaking and if we continue to see these financial conditions then things might tighten fast not really affording them the opportunity to do rate hikes well let me come in a little bit i mean not you know i love josh and i i heard you interview him a little bit more uh saying you know we can't repeat 2018 but we're in a very different situation we have four trillion dollars more of reserves in the bank than we did back then so when they began to run it off it was beginning to tighten on the bank we got four trillion and we also have an inflation problem back then we had zero inflation inflation below the fed target so i remember we are virtually at full employment in some measures over full employment and the second important goal of the fed and some say the most important goal of the fed is controlling prices so yeah there may be a market reaction i actually think it's a rotation that's what you're seeing i still think we could have a good market this year but certainly those with good cash flows are going to benefit at those that have the discount rates go way out in the future when the fed is being aggressive so i don't think it's going to be a bad market i think it's going to be a rotated market and i see that's what you've been seeing in the last two two or three days what about professor siegel those companies that uh while they have good cash flows do have quite rich multiples like a microsoft which was down almost four percent today i mean is this the start of something more meaningful in terms of pullbacks for those types of stocks or not well i think anything with a higher multiple is more vulnerable just on the basis of simple financial arithmetic when you raise the discount rates the higher the multiple which means you're discounting further out in the future means a bigger price drop and that's the tilt that you're actually experiencing now and i would not be surprised at all to see that till continue throughout this year certainly because the more conservative stocks i mean 40 is certainly not 200 times revenues uh of which of course uh there are a number of the really high-flying stocks so those are the more conservatives they're not going to be hit anywhere near as much as what we see and you know we when we take a look at what is down 30 40 50 percent those are the ones that are going to be hit the most and i actually think that the value stocks this year will be up i think even the is p could be up 10 this year but i think you're going to see the rotation because of the interest rates i i was going to ask about the market multiple for the s p 500 what is it trading at 20 times next year's earning that's historically higher than average and just what type of hit the the s p 500 itself could take in the environment that you envision yeah actually it's selling at around 22 times earnings a little bit more uh expensive but but look in an india even if the fed raises as i say the two percent uh and the ten year goes to to two and a half or three that is still extremely low uh with those low interest rates you wouldn't expect the market to go back to its 200 year average of a 15 pe when interest rates were much higher than today and the markets were nowhere near as liquid as today in fact i've often said i think the normal range of price earnings ratio is 20 to 22 and we're in that normal range right now so so overall professor siegel when you mentioned that we could still have a a good day overall a good day a good year overall for for the major indices do you think that that comes by year-end as opposed to immediately bouncing this this week next week from these small pullbacks like we kind of seemingly did throughout all of last year do you think we will have a 10 20 pullback in q1 or q2 well remember i i think i coined the the term last year the taper tremors it's whenever you hear that they're going to have to notch up it you're going to have a day like today and then people are going to say yeah where else am i going to go i don't want to go into bonds i don't want to go into cash i want to go into real assets so in between times the market will be supported the fed is going to have to tighten again you'll see the rotation that the tremors are going to come and they're going to be out through the year and that's why we're not going to have a 2021 26 gain but we still certainly could have an eight to ten percent gain um with the rotation taking place yeah all about the value jeremy siegel professor thank you good to see you thank you very much
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