저자: MattKohrs · 외국인
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시장이 아직 바닥 매수 타이밍은 아니라는 입장이지만, 옵션 구조(풋 청산·변동성 축소에 따른 바나 랠리 기대)를 근거로 팔란티어와 마이크로스트래티지는 단기 바닥 매수 신호가 나타나고 있다고 주장. S&P500은 5900(SPX 기준 약 588-589 SPY 환산) 상향 돌파 시 바나 랠리 가능성 제시. 관세 관련 일시 유예 뉴스가 상승 동력. 이중 바닥 및 50 EMA 지지 기술적 근거 제시.
다듬은 글
in all reality not too much happened in the world's largest casino today so I don't think there's much of a point of me giving you that classic play-by-play breakdown so I'm going to give you something better in the update video yesterday I hurt everyone's Feelings by saying don't buy this dip and I truly stand by that because right now the underlying metrics did not really suggest it was time to buy the dip so in this video I want to break down what that actually means and what to be looking for of oh okay it is time to buy the dip and I I also want to call out a couple equities where it's already flashing that sign and I really don't want to hide that to the end so I'm telling you right now palen tier ticker pltr and micro strategy MST are already flashing those golden signs of this might be a solid dip buying opportunity I hope that sounds good to you if you enjoy these type of breakdowns and explanations it would be awesome if you could help me out by hitting the like button don't forget to subscribe turn on your notifications and as always tell your mother you love her and with that being said let's rock when the whip saws and the fake outs ended what we're calling today's price action here was the official headline Dow closes nearly 500 points higher S&P 500 surges over 1% on hopes for Trump tariff concessions and on that alone it made things very green Hulk mode green we saw a nice recovery and for some of these I do believe it's actually buying the dip opportunity but for the overall Market we're not there quite yet speaking of the overall market up until around 11:45 things were pretty bearish so lower highs lower lows and right there we got that Nike Swoosh recovery all the way into the close uh similar situation with the NASDAQ and as I alluded to I will be talking about pltr and micro strategy mstr and a little bit because I really like what's going on with them but to better explain how I get this idea of is it really good time to buy the dip or not it's all going to come down to the world of options so for example right now you're seeing the options movement for the s&p500 complex throughout the day the orange and the green are the all expiration calls and the zero DT calls you can tell that they were strong at first and then really ripped until about 215 that's when price stopped that's when option stopped and we kind of just went sideways now the dark blue and the light blue are for puts once again dark blue is all expiration puts light blue are zero DT puts as they were getting closed out that added some POS positive gamma and even though that is some closing out it wasn't the biggest amount of puts getting closed out right here just to show you a little different this is the combination of the Mac 7 Apple Amazon Google meta Microsoft Nvidia and Tesla what I like about this is you could see there was bullish aggression pretty much all day starting at noon from there we just saw a ton of calls being bought not only for the all expiration but also for this Friday and no one was really touching PS so yes we saw some enthusiasm but what I'm going to be breaking down in this video is where we're seeing kind of more enthusiasm remember we want to be betting on the smart horses we want to be betting where the big money's going where we have minimal risk and higher upside so that's really what I want to explain but to better understand the landscape we're in of course you have to understand what's happening with the trade war that turned into a drug war that turned into tariffs that turned into a trade War that's now back to a drug war but yet we're already calling it back to tariffs we're all over the map Trump says a little disturbance from tariffs is okay as markets reel from trade War fears this is what was said at the State of the Union Address last night when Trump was talking to Congress and people kind of expected it it wasn't too much of a surprise honestly early this morning the market was looking pretty green we had that sell off and then we eventually recovered and we recovered because of some interesting developments throughout the day White House says Canada's efforts not good enough open to exemptions so we kind of came in super super aggressive we were going to hit him and then throughout the day we said maybe not Commerce Secretary lutnick says to expect an announcement this afternoon on Mexico and Canada Trump maybe maybe will consider giving relief so we were all waiting for that and it came out right around noon on East Coast time Trump grants automakers a one-month exemption from tariffs the White House granted a one-month delay for tariffs on automakers whose cars comply with usmca which was negotiated during President Trump's first term automakers have urged Trump to wave the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on vehicles that comply with the United States Mexico Canada agreement rule of origin so even with that it wasn't the biggest thing as in oh no more tariffs no more trade War it was like one specific thing that they're getting another one month delay and ked's response was a bit strange kenada won't scrap tariffs unless all us levies are lifted according to their officials we also got commentary from president shine bomb of Mexico that she'll be reaching out to Canada and I guess they're going to be teaming up so that's the big news that I guess the Bots kind of went crazy as soon it was announced and that's what led us to actually getting a pop and also you could see that's roughly when people started buying calls kind of getting out of puts and roughly exactly when people got very excited about buying the mag 7 it was all related to okay I guess they're getting another 1mon delay for any automaker and the tariffs related to that this is pretty much the same Playbook that we saw in 2018 Trump's team came on very aggressive with tariffs but then slowly and surely when they saw the market was getting hit the team was like kind of laking things of okay we're not going to be that crazy and that's kind of what got the market going speaking of getting the market going this is really where I want to get into the technicals this is the type of stuff and I I tell you if you have to watch this part a couple times if you have to write it down this is the good stuff as I alluded to yesterday's update video this is not the time to be buying the dip quite yet and it's not just because of price action granted we haven't made any fresh highs we're just making lower lows but you also have to look at the options Market which is exactly why day in and day out I am tracking what's going on in the options Market use whatever options tool you like I personally like spot gamma the best but find which one you like and is in your price range but like I said Spock cam is kind of the best in the game right now anyway what I like to do is find out in these environments when you have lower highs and lower lows and the market is just puking the question is is okay not only where we going to buy the you identify that by saying where could we have a Vana rally Vanna a Vana rally for those of you who haven't heard about it is what happens when the market is tilted long on puts there's a lot of people buying puts which means market makers sold a bunch of puts what happens is when the market starts to turn around you're going to see a drop in VA and actually literally you could track this with the vix you're going to see the Vick drop those are all the ingredients you need for the Vana rally recipe because as VI vix contracts as it drops you're going to see these people okay if vix is dropping that means the price is going up so they'll probably get out of their puts so simultaneously you have volatility coming down and you have the amount of puts long puts also coming down that has a kind of exponential effect on market makers and how they have to hedge the books and the tldr there is they just don't have to be as short they don't have to be as short because puts are closing out so they don't have to hedge for that and also cuz volatility is Contracting they don't have to have such a wide net of what they have to protect so once again they they get out of shorts so they're getting out of shorts for two different reasons and as market makers get out of their protective shorts that pushes it up which causes obviously more puts to get dropped and pushes it up higher and higher people see it going higher and higher they start to fomo into calls because everyone's yelling by the dip to identify where this can happen I'm kind of explaining how it looks in real time like actually the visuals of this will be the blue lines ripping and the green and orange lines ripping just everything's ripping but it's all started by puts being closed out and volatility Contracting once again that's a around so the question here is at what point are we going to see a lot of in the- money puts go from in the money to out of the money and this is where you want to start to do a breakdown on the option chain but I'm telling you this right now it is 5900 relative to the Delta impact from any other level of SPX SPI whatever it is this is about five times larger than any other strike so if you're looking at it if you want the Spy equivalent it's kind of like halfway through the range it's roughly 588 589 like if you're just going to eyeball it but looking at the option chain I'm telling you this right now a break above and a close above this is going to put a lot of in the money puts to out of the money and then that is exactly what you need for what I'm referring to as a vaner rally so whether it happens tomorrow in a week in a month whenever it happens if we can confidently get above and close above 5900 on the current option structure that is where you're going to have a high probability of course not a guarantee of what I'm calling a vaner Alia which is going to be Ned by the vix dropping puts getting closed out and then you're going to get this very positive feedback loop which is really going to cause things to Skyrocket so that's the exact thing I'm personally looking for to play that but with that being said that entire explanation we are already seeing it in some individual equities and I want to quote those out to you right now first of all we have MST yes lower highs lower lows but we're starting to see that phenomena people getting okay we don't want to be in puts anymore we're buying some calls so we're seeing the market makers hedge their books differently which is much more supportive for a breakout from a technical perspective we're seeing a little bit of a breakout in terms of the recent highs we're seeing some higher lows I'm watching this 50 EMA and we also have a political Catalyst this Friday there is a US Government crypto event and we know Michael sailor is going to be there so we might be getting another big announcement this weekend as we did last weekend so just kind of putting some politics with price action with the option chain I find this one to be very exciting and then the other one is pltr obviously I know if you're watching this there's a good chance you're already excited in pltr it's been ripping so I totally get it I love the company I love the CEO recently it got beat up lower highs lower lows created a nice base here around 80 and for the longest time I was waiting to get back into this one so not only are we seeing a potential double bottom which means you have minimized risk we're looking at taking out a recent high it's trying to save itself at the 50 EMA but guess what the exact same thing is going on in the option change where we're seeing lack of excitement in puts a lot of excitement for calls which means that the market makers are going to start hedging differently and I truly believe that this is setting up for a nice push in the short term up to this upside Gap fill at 100 now obviously I'm also an investor in this particular one I do think it goes higher but I'm just talking about some short-term movement of why I'm uniquely excited about pltr mstr right now and obviously I'm giving you the event in which I'm going to probably move from puts to calls in the overall market and I'm really looking for for the option structure to change and it all comes back to the world of Aer rally now right now in real time you might be thinking okay what are some other things that might be impacting this well obviously we still have major macroeconomic events Thursday March 6th tomorrow morning we're going to get the ECB interest rate decision and on Friday we had the unemployment report and Jerome pal the chairman of the FED will be speaking at 12:30 and I also want to let you know we still do have some important earnings on Thursday we're going to have broadcom and we're going to have Costco I'm personally definitely watching those now I know that I hit you with a lot of information so if you have any questions on reading the option Shain Vanner rally gamma rally all that stuff how I pick up my levels let me know in the comment below I'll be doing my best to get back to all of you join up with the Discord or check us out in the morning show from 9:00 to 11:00 Monday to Friday every single day I am live trading my own account in a very degenerate style I truly think you're going to enjoy it now obviously I appreciate you stopping by I appreciate you getting to this point in the video I appreciate your time I hope you're making those tendies and I'll catch you in the next one peace
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