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charlie if you look at the list of new highs today church and dwight general mills hershey these companies are trading at all-time highs coca-cola and pepsi and your beloved jm smucker at the highest level since 2016. it's finally working for you but i don't know what that says about the economy yeah this is a little bit tricky because i would say the reopening trade would not be helpful to those kinds of consumer staple names they did so well obviously in kovid when everybody was home part of our thesis is that people rediscovered folger's coffee at smuckers when they had could buy uh when they were at home and they didn't have to spend six dollars at starbucks they could spend 60 cents on their cup of folgers um but i have to admit i i am a little bit surprised that the consumer staples have performed so well we would say this is a consumer discretionary economy where again the consumer has a great balance sheet is ready to spend and that should be good for discretionary items well earnings season does officially kick off this week as we've seen with jp morgan in city closing in the red wells fargo up three percent after reporting results this morning let's bring in ed yardeni president of your danny research with with more of a preview ad for what we can expect and and which sector do you think stands out in terms of the best opportunity as far as the setup relative to what we're going to get from earnings well i think where uh we may still get earning surprises and this is the season for earning surprises typically analysts uh low ball the results that we actually get i think energy is one area i mean certainly uh energy companies are spending less on capital spending and at the same time they've had higher oil and gas prices so i think that's going to create some upside surprises in the fourth quarter results uh then i think the other areas financials they've been coming out some sell off on on the news the good news has been an opportunity for some to take some profits but i think the important point is that loan demand is actually starting to come back it had been very weak for the past couple of years as businesses especially were able to refinance in the capital markets industrials look great especially things like electrical equipment industrial equipment and the reason that looks so good is because the orders numbers are an all-time record high they're absolutely flying i think supply chains are coming back to the us of a and i think that entails a tremendous amount of capital spending and that's affecting uh industrials technology too by the way i think uh selloffs are opportunities to get into these stocks because i think technology is going to be used to continue to bring supply chains back home and that's that kind of rounds it out for now it sounds like you're pretty tilted cyclically strong areas industrials energy financials so you are a buyer of the recovery story and and that fed hikes and inflation won't stand in the way well think about it uh if we get um but the market currently is discounting four rate hikes this year that gets us all the way up to one percent on the fed funds rate and uh maybe the bond yield will move to two two and a half percent these are not killer interest rates in my opinion they were just really indications of a strong economy uh the key of course is we need to see inflation peak and start coming down that would help the markets a lot and that would give another lift i think to the stock market broadly encyclical specifically and how much do you consider sentiment more broadly as opposed to you know the discount rate and how that should impact valuations right and whether we just have shifted now towards uh certain parts of the sector to to a new era where people want to take profits rather than than chase the momentum high well i think you are seeing a lot of investors conclude that being invested long term makes more sense than trying to time corrections i i don't do corrections very well i've had some success in timing the tops but then the frustration is telling people what to get back in and i think that's generally the case uh strategies to play corrections have to give you two correct decisions one is when to get out and when to get back in and i don't think they've uh there are too many strategists that have done a pretty good job of that i would say that the key here is is there going to be a recession this year because the fed has turned more hawkish and is going to be raising interest rates will there be a recession in 2023 i don't think so and if that's the case then i don't think we have to worry about a bear market and there could be some corrections along the way but those will be buying opportunities rather than something to try to time
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