Sell-offs are opportunities to get into good stocks: Ed Yardeni

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경기 재개 및 소비재 강세 속 산업재·에너지·금융·기술 섹터 중심의 경기 회복 베팅을 권하고, 조정은 매수 기회로 보며, 연준 긴축에도 2023년 약세장은 없다는 낙관 전망. 소비재 주식: 코카콜라·펩시·스머커 등 필수소비재가 2016년 이후 최고가 부근에서 거래됨. 코로나 기간 집에서 소비가 늘며 강세였고, 필수소비재가 이렇게 강한 것은 예상 밖이라고 언급. 소비자 재무상태가 좋아 재량소비재 쪽이 유리하다는 입장. 실적 시즌: 이번 주 실적 시즌 시작(JP모건, 씨티 등 언급, 웰스파고 3% 상승). 애널리스트들이 실적을 낮게 잡는 경향이 있어 이번 시즌도 어닝 서프라이즈 가능성이 있다고 봄. 섹터별 전망: 에너지는 자본지출 축소와 높은 유가·가스 가격으로 4분기 실적 상향 서프라이즈 기대. 금융은 최근 매도세가 있었으나 대출 수요가 회복되기 시작해 긍정적. 산업재(전기장비, 산업장비)는 주문이 사상 최고치로 매우 강함, 공급망의 미국 복귀로 설비투자 수혜. 기술주도 공급망 리쇼어링에 활용되어 매도는 매수 기회라고 봄. 금리·인플레이션: 시장은 올해 연준 금리 인상 4회(연방기금금리 약 1%)를 반영 중. 10년물 금채리 2~2.5% 수준은 강한 경기의 신호일 뿐 치명적이지 않다고 평가. 인플레이션 정점 통과가 시장에 큰 도움. 투자 전략: 조정기 타이밍 매매는 고점과 재진입 두 가지를 모두 맞춰야 해 어렵다며 장기 투자 선호. 2023년 경기침체는 없을 것으로 보아 약세장 우려는 낮고, 조정은 매수 기회라는 입장.

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01. charlie if you look at the list of new highs today church and dwight general mills hershey these companies are trading at all-time highs coca-cola and pepsi and your beloved jm smucker at the highest level since 2016. it's finally working for you but i don't know what that says about the economy yeah this is a little bit tricky because i would say the reopening trade would not be helpful to those kinds of consumer staple names they did so well obviously in kovid when everybody was home part of our thesis is that people rediscovered folger's coffee at smuckers when they had could buy uh when they were at home and they didn't have to spend six dollars at starbucks they could spend 60 cents on their cup of folgers um but i have to admit i i am a little bit surprised that the consumer staples have performed so well we would say this is a consumer discretionary economy where again the consumer has a great balance sheet is ready to spend and that should be good for discretionary items well earnings season does officially kick off this week as we've seen with jp morgan in city closing in the red wells fargo up three percent after reporting results this morning let's bring in ed yardeni president of your danny research with with more of a preview ad for what we can expect and and which sector do you think stands out in terms of the best opportunity as far as the setup relative to what we're going to get from earnings well i think where uh we may still get earning surprises and this is the season for earning surprises typically analysts uh low ball the results that we actually get i think energy is one area i mean certainly uh energy companies are spending less on capital spending and at the same time they've had higher oil and gas prices so i think that's going to create some upside surprises in the fourth quarter results uh then i think the other areas financials they've been coming out some sell off on on the news the good news has been an opportunity for some to take some profits but i think the important point is that loan demand is actually starting to come back it had been very weak for the past couple of years as businesses especially were able to refinance in the capital markets industrials look great especially things like electrical equipment industrial equipment and the reason that looks so good is because the orders numbers are an all-time record high they're absolutely flying i think supply chains are coming back to the us of a and i think that entails a tremendous amount of capital spending and that's affecting uh industrials technology too by the way i think uh selloffs are opportunities to get into these stocks because i think technology is going to be used to continue to bring supply chains back home and that's that kind of rounds it out for now it sounds like you're pretty tilted cyclically strong areas industrials energy financials so you are a buyer of the recovery story and and that fed hikes and inflation won't stand in the way well think about it uh if we get um but the market currently is discounting four rate hikes this year that gets us all the way up to one percent on the fed funds rate and uh maybe the bond yield will move to two two and a half percent these are not killer interest rates in my opinion they were just really indications of a strong economy uh the key of course is we need to see inflation peak and start coming down that would help the markets a lot and that would give another lift i think to the stock market broadly encyclical specifically and how much do you consider sentiment more broadly as opposed to you know the discount rate and how that should impact valuations right and whether we just have shifted now towards uh certain parts of the sector to to a new era where people want to take profits rather than than chase the momentum high well i think you are seeing a lot of investors conclude that being invested long term makes more sense than trying to time corrections i i don't do corrections very well i've had some success in timing the tops but then the frustration is telling people what to get back in and i think that's generally the case uh strategies to play corrections have to give you two correct decisions one is when to get out and when to get back in and i don't think they've uh there are too many strategists that have done a pretty good job of that i would say that the key here is is there going to be a recession this year because the fed has turned more hawkish and is going to be raising interest rates will there be a recession in 2023 i don't think so and if that's the case then i don't think we have to worry about a bear market and there could be some corrections along the way but those will be buying opportunities rather than something to try to time