Michael Burry Warns America: Weimar Hyperinflation Is Coming

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마이클 버리는 미국이 바이마르 독일식 초인플레이션 위험에 처해 있다고 경고한다. 코로나 부양책과 경기 재개로 수요와 공급망 비용이 급등하고 있고, 정부가 인플레이션을 자초하고 있다고 주장한다. 버리는 1974년 게르초 파슨스의 'Dying of Money' 분석을 인용해 1914~1923년 독일 인플레이션이 9년간 축적된 뒤 붕괴한 과정을 설명하고, 2010~2021년 미국이 같은 축적 단계에 있다고 본다. 그는 부채 대비 GDP와 통화량 증가, 소매판매·PMI의 V자 회복을 근거로 든다. 공급망 비용이 이미 치솟고 있다는 점도 강조한다. 버리는 주식시장에 대해 과도한 투기와 빚투(마진 부채)가 S&P500을 붕괴 직전으로 몰고 간다고 경고한다. 마진 부채와 S&P500이 함께 급등한 차트를 근거로 제시한다. 그는 밈주식과 투기적 거래를 위험 신호로 꼽는다. 개인투자자 붐이 시장을 떠받치고 있지만 결국 과도한 부채로 붕괴할 것이라고 본다. 비트코인과 금은 안전자산으로 보지 않는다고 밝힌다. 그는 이들이 인플레이션 위기 때 통화 경쟁에서 정부의 견제를 받을 수 있다고 본다. 테슬라에 대해서는 공매도 포지션을 유지하며 고평가를 비판한다. 닷컴·주택 버블에 비유하고 주가가 2020년 이후 800% 넘게 올라 시가총액이 약 7800억 달러에 이르렀다고 지적한다. 게임스탑 숏스퀴즈에는 우연히 불씨를 제공했지만 그 열기를 비정상적이고 위험하다고 평가한다. 버리는 자신의 경고가 무시되고 있지만 결국 입증될 것이라는 입장을 밝힌다. 출연자 전망 요약: 인플레이션·주식 버블 붕괴 경고, 테슬라 단기 하락 베팅 유지, 비트코인·금 비우호적.

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01. dr michael j barry the hedge fund manager who profited hundreds of thousands of dollars betting on the crash of the us housing market and helped to inspire the book and the movie the big short in which he was portrayed by christian bale is now warning that america is about to face a weimar like hyperinflation the investing legend who runs cyan asset management has disclosed to fear a major price surge mentioning the staggering supply chain costs and u.s retail sales which went up by 5.3 percent in january as a consequence of the effect of stimulus checks on the economy considering trillions more are about to be issued the u.s government is inviting inflation affirmed bury the investor also sounded the alarm on the stock market learning that extreme speculation and debt would lead to an extreme crash as his forecasts have been proven accurate today we're going to analyze barry's latest insights on the us economic collapse and the looming market crash so stay with us and don't forget to leave a thumbs up and share this video subscribe to our channel and turn on the bell to keep updated with our latest notifications about a week ago several experts started to openly discuss the negative effects of the current monetary policy on the economy but after bank of america started to hint that the massive amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus combined with the imminent surge in monetary velocity and converging with the reopening of the world's economy after months of lockdowns could cause an unprecedented economic overheating the debate started to get much more heated as bank of america's cio michael hartnett analyzed the post-world war one germany economic scenario outlining it was the most epic extreme analog of surging velocity and inflation following the end of war psychology pent up savings lost confidence in currency and authorities while explicitly mentioning the reichsbank's monetization of debt he suggested that we're undergoing a similar situation right now that was the weimar germany period but as bank of america tends to take a more cautious note in his predictions it is understandable why the bank's cio didn't mention that particular name however others have been less shy in their approach in 1974 genzo parson published an excellent in-depth historical analysis of the hyperinflationary crash of weimar germany under the command of the original money printer rudy von hoffenstein dying of money lessons of the great german and american inflations which is often remembered during critical times is a historical parallel to what can happen next then a couple of days ago no one other than the big short man himself michael burry has also picked up on the theme of weimar germany and particularly its hyperinflation stressing in a lengthy tweet storm while using pass and seminal work as a basis for his argumentation that we're going down the same path the hedge fund manager who has been quite busy providing his heart takes to investors and sparking fluctuations within the financial community most recently criticizing robin hood and revealing to have a bullish view on uranium linked dying of money to the current us inflation the cover of parsons book shows the old german money a reichsbank note issued on august 22nd 1923 of 100 million marks which was worth approximately twenty dollars on the day of its issuance but three months later as the process of inflation rapidly deteriorated the german currency it was worth only a few thousandths of a u.s cent from 1918 to 1933 germany was commonly referred to as the german reich or the german republic the title of weimar republic became more popular amongst english speakers in the 1930s and refers to the city of weimar where the republic's constituent assembly first occurred extensively quoting the book barry noted how inflation has reoccurred throughout history how it usually arises after an economic boom and an increase in new fortunes how it leads to higher social turbulence higher living expenses and widespread poverty he compared germany's policy mistakes in the 1920s to the current us economic trajectory and although most monetary historians are very familiar with the details of this narrative the fact the man who was made famous in the big short is calling for weimar style hyper inflation in the u.s is particularly concerning his lengthy tweet storm happened on saturday it offers an easily digestible analysis of how similar our world is to that prevalent in the years just before feiman germany saw the most dramatic hyperinflationary collapse in history he stresses that the us government is inviting inflation with its mt tinged policies and points out that while brisk debt to gdp and money supply are increasing retail sales in the purchasing managers index are staging a v-shaped recovery so with trillions more stimulus in the reopening of the economy boosting demand employee and supply chain costs are already skyrocketing the life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics one was the great wealth at least of those favored by the boom many great fortunes sprang up overnight the cities had an aimless and wanton youth he quoted barry described that at that time prices in germany were stable and both business and the stock market were roaring the exchange rate of the mark against a dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world he wrote however side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money looking in but not able to enter as a result delinquencies and social agitation sword the cyan asset management boss reminded accounts of that time which told the story of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace to no visible purpose and their fears from watching their own precarious position slip while others grew so conspicuously rich meanwhile almost any kind of business could make money business failures and bankruptcies became few the boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the non-essential and ineffective otherwise would have been called out while adding nothing to germany's wealth back then the expert explains that speculation became one of the country's largest activities the friends either join in and make a quick mark spread across almost all classes everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market he exclaimed the volumes of turnover on securities on the berlin bus became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork and the boss was obliged to close several days a week just to work off the backlog he mentioned adding the hashtag robinhood down referring to the trading ban the platform enforced several weeks ago as retail investors gathered to fuel the gamestop short squeeze in the summer of 1922 all the existent marks in the entire world didn't have enough inherent worth to buy a single newspaper or a tram ticket until november of 1923.

02. that was the spectacular part of the collapse but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow the investor highlighted saying that germany's inflation cycle unfolded not for a year but for nine years which represented eight years of gestation and only one of collapse his punchline came as he recalled this analysis was written in 1974 in reference to what took place in 1914-1923 arguing that from 2010 to 2021 the us was in the process of gestation he also quoted wall street journal writer charlie grant saying that when dollars might as well be falling from the sky management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk paying out debt finance dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities is beat in a frugal mentality hands down on thursday barry has said in a now deleted tweet prepare for inflation reopening and stimulus on the way pre-outbreak it took three dollars of debt to create one dollar of gdp and it's worse now in an inflationary crisis governments will move to squash competitors in the currency arena bitcoin gold according to business insider the hedge fund manager has been making waves stating he doesn't see bitcoin or gold as guaranteed havens for investors he's alerted that tesla's 1.5 billion dollar bet on bitcoin was a distraction from its troubles in china the company is the first foreign automaker to operate a wholly owned plant in china and has been called out by chinese officials alleging consumer complaints about quality issues barry has revealed to be shorting elon musk's company and has frequently criticized the tesla boom comparing it to the dot-com and housing bubbles i live in the land of tesla i know what a tesla car is i talk to the mechanics and dealers but being short is so much more than that he wrote since the start of 2020 tesla's stock price has skyrocketed over 800 percent sending its market capitalization to nearly 780 billion dollars despite the belief that tesla's elevated stock price might be self-fulfilling since the business could issue shares to fund its growth barry said saw this same thesis many times when partying in 1999 my last big short got bigger and bigger and bigger too enjoy it while it lasts moreover the investor is credited with unknowingly helping to light the spark that laid the groundwork for the gamestop short squeeze as he invested in the video game retailer in 2019 after coming to the conclusion that the stock was undervalued but he couldn't have imagined that his efforts would help to incite thousands of day traders on a reddit forum wall street bets to coordinate a short squeeze and send gamestop shares up by as much as 2000 500 percent in a matter of weeks as we previously reported the conflict between retail investors and short selling hedge funds has captured global attention prompted regulatory investigations and stimulated talks of an investing revolution evidently the cyan asset management ceo never expected his gamestop bet and calls for buybacks that would help to trigger a historic short squeeze and a potential revolution in the financial world but now that he's played a major role in both the big short and the big squeeze the investment community is watching closely to the investor's latest insights however in a recent statement to bloomberg barry described the gamestop frenzy as unnatural insane and dangerous and sounded the alarm for a massive market bubble he highlighted that growing speculation and widespread betting with borrowed money have pushed the stock market to the brink of collapse saying speculative stock bubbles ultimately see the gamblers take on too much debt the investor tweeted along with a chart showing the s p 500 index and levels of margin debt both soaring in recent months the market is dancing on a nice edge barry added the hedge fund chief said the flow of cash resulted from actively managed funds to index trackers and the surge in day traders sharing tips on social media and inciting the purchase of meme stocks had helped to boost the market upswing passive investings iq drain and hashtag stocks group hype add to the danger he said in another tweet barry alerted to a massive spike in the volume of bullish call options being traded he included the hashtags caution to the wind and blow off top to underline his view that those types of wages are shooting starks to extreme levels only one day after the weimar tweetstorm bury whose display name on twitter is cassandra referring to the priestess from greek mythology who was cursed to share true prophecies but never to be believed tweeted the following people say i didn't warn last time i did but no one listened so i warn this time and still no one listens but i will have proof i warned undoubtedly he will this is where we are now the only question left is when does the exponential currency collapse phase will start you